The Orlando Magic hit a hard reset on its rebuild after a disappointing 2017 year. The 2018 season comes with questions but hope for a way forward.
The Orlando Magic finished their 2017 season on a high note. Or as high a note as the team had felt in some time.
Sure, there were a few begrudging fans upset over a win — the Magic’s win knocked them to the fifth-best lottery odds rather than the fourth. It cost them one draft spot — and, perhaps, the chance to select De’Aaron Fox. That debate could come another day.
That final time the Orlando Magic were on the floor at the Amway Center — a 113-109 win over the Detroit Pistons — was a celebration of what could have been in many ways. Aaron Gordon scored 32 points to go with 12 rebounds. Elfrid Payton scored 21 points to go with 13 assists, hitting two critical jumpers to give the Magic the game. The reported record crowd at the Amway Center got a good night at the arena and the last chance to see the team for a long six months.
That, of course, was momentary. It was not a representation of a frustrating season.
The Magic failed to meet even the lowest expectations and take that step forward. A day later, the team relieved general manager Rob Hennigan of his position. Orlando was clearly in transition. And, after spending so much on free agents and giving up so many young players in the course of a year and a half, the team had an uncertain path forward.
Orlando did not have the cash to go out and change things automatically. Their sixth overall pick guaranteed a solid player in the Draft, but no guarantee of that star they desperately needed. The team was not going to change much, at least if the franchise held onto Playoff dreams.
And that part certainly had to be a bit frustrating. Especially after a 29-win season that was a disaster in almost every way.
Orlando Magic
The team’s plans to build around a strong defense never materialized. The strong start on that end collapsed in the beginning of December and the Magic sank to one of the worst defensive teams in the league.
Orlando shifted gears after trading Serge Ibaka, one of the several players who was supposed to change the team’s identity and take it to the next step. The Magic played better after the break, but only slightly. Enough to believe the Magic could take that necessary step forward, but not enough to feel confident about it.
New president of basketball operations Jeff Weltman’s hands were a bit tied. He had a little bit of cap room to work with, but not enough to sign a true impact player. He worked mostly on the margins.
The Magic would have to make due with what they had already.
So where does this leave the Magic entering the 2018 season? What kind of season is in store for them?
That is the part nobody seems to know.
The predictions from everyone around the league is fairly tepid. A modest improvement of the 29-win season they had last year seems in order. After all, the Magic made only cosmetic, peripheral changes. this offseason.
Yet, the Eastern Conference seems there for the taking. Even with a modest improvement, most predictions have conceded the Magic could finish 10th and within striking distance of the final playoff spot. That is enough to entice a franchise and a fan base into thinking big — or whatever the eighth seed is.
The Magic are not on any growth curve or have some grand plan. Weltman is preparing to enter his first season as the Magic’s head man trying to figure out what he has and how best to move forward.
The team could take that step forward, having added the peripheral pieces it needed to make good on the progress from the end of the season. The team could step back and go back to the Lottery and get another young prospect to develop.
Either scenario seems as likely for the Magic. It leaves a Magic season that seems completely unpredictable with a team no one has a good handle on.
As Orlando begins training camp Tuesday, the team will face all these questions. The questions that come with a team that has proven nothing, has gotten a second chance and has everything to lose as management puts its house in order.
The Starters
Typically after winning 29 games and failing to meet expectations, a team will look to make some type of major change. Something has to give if the team is going to make progress of some sort.
And so retaining the same starting five with little challenge does not seem like the answer. For those who believe the Magic are not about to get much better this year, this is the signal to point toward.
And that starting lineup of Elfrid Payton, Evan Fournier, Terrence Ross, Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic still lacks that breakout star. It is no coincidence both ESPN and Sports Illustrated did not have many Magic players in their top 100 — Elfrid Payton and Nikola Vucevic made Sports Illustrated’s list and Aaron Gordon made ESPN’s list.
Someone in that group will have to step up if the Magic are going to improve their fortunes. Coach Frank Vogel is right that internal improvement is still the best way for the Magic to take its next step.
Yet. . . that starting group played exceedingly well to end the season last year. There is no getting around it and no denying it. Something within that lineup clicked to end the season.
In 410 minutes after the All-Star Break, that starting lineup posted a +1.4 net rating. The team outscored its opponents by 1.4 points per 100 possessions. For a team to do that, it would statistically mean that team finishes at a bit better than .500.
More surprisingly, the team posted a 112.0 offensive rating with that group. That would suggest the defense needs to improve by a lot for it to be sustainable.
Still, these numbers were encouraging. Enough to decrease some of the urgency for dramatic change.
The Magic told anyone who would listen they saw improvement toward the end of the season. Enough to keep going with it or give it a chance. That argument seemed to win the day.
No one is confusing that starting lineup with the Golden State Warriors or any of the elite teams. The Magic are just hoping to hover around .500. That would be enough to make the Playoffs and accomplish some of their goals.
In order to do that, they will need to see nearly everyone in the starting lineup take a step up and bounce back from a down year last year.
They will need Payton to continue his torrid pace through the second half of the season when he accumulated five triple-doubles and averaged 13.5 points, 7.0 rebounds and 8.4 assists per game.
It will require Nikola Vucevic and Evan Fournier bouncing back to their efficiency levels from a year ago.
And, most of all, perhaps, it will take Gordon taking the leap to consistency. He, in a contract year, has to prove what he is in the NBA and whether he has that star potential in him. Gordon took some step in that direction after the All-Star Break last year. He averaged 16.4 points and 6.2 rebounds per game after his move back to power forward.
The starting lineup provided some form of hope for the Magic. There is evidence to suggest it can work.
The Magic appear set to see it through. The hope now is the work they did in the offseason will not leave it as their only option, as it was last year.
Elfrid Payton Outlook
Evan Fournier Outlook
Terrence Ross Outlook
Aaron Gordon Outlook
Nikola Vucevic Outlook
The Bench
The Orlando Magic have always seemingly had a good core of young players (at least until a few years ago). But they were never able to supplement it or hold onto the quality role and reserve players necessary to take a step up. The Magic were figuring everything out.
And so it was when Orlando felt it was ready to take the next step to the Playoffs last year, the team also sought to remake its depth and add veterans to stabilize the team.
The Magic signed Bismack Biyombo to the big contract so that one of Biyombo and Nikola Vucevic would always be on the floor. They signed D.J. Augustin to a long-term deal. And, yes, the Magic hoped Jeff Green would be a stable scoring force off the bench.
To say it did not work is an understatement, to say the least.
According to HoopsStats, the Magic’s bench last year was 27th overall. After the All-Star Break, it was the worst bench in the league by a long shot. Orlando did not know what it could get from its bench even as its starting lineup was playing well.
With the limited funds the Magic had to spend this year, they were going to focus on their bench. They could not spend a ton of money or commit a lot of long-term money, but they knew they had to get more consistency and improve this reserve unit. At the very least to provide competition within practice.
They started by looking for some versatility in signing backup point guard Shelvin Mack. They stayed patient to get Jonathon Simmons, a player who had shown promise when called upon with the San Antonio Spurs in the Playoffs last season. Orlando drafted a promising young prospect in Jonathan Isaac to be part of the team’s future. Then they added two stalwart veterans in Arron Afflalo and Marreese Speights on minimum contracts.
All this with the stable that remained. Bismack Biyombo, despite his down year, can be a game changer defensively. Mario Hezonja still has top-five talent if he can ever rediscover his shot. And D.J. Augustin can still score when called upon.
There are still plenty of questions.
Jonathon Simmons has never had a major bench role. He still played mostly spot minutes and averaged a little more than six points per game last year.
Arron Afflalo has not been the same since leaving Orlando in 2013 and he had a career-worst year coring last year with the Sacramento Kings. His 3-point shooting is valuable, but it is fair to ask how much more he can contribute. Shelvin Mack has had his up-and-down ride in his career too.
And the Magic are still overloaded at center. Marreese Speights should be able to play for this team, but he probably is not a fit as a power forward anymore.
This does not even get into how the Magic can ensure Jonathan Isaac’s development.
The bench is never a sure thing. That is typically the reason those players come off the bench rather than start. But if Orlando’s bet on its starting lineup pays off, it will need a decent bench to get it over the finish line.
It is hard to look at the work Jeff Weltman did and not think the bench is better. If things go wrong with the starters, there are a few players who can at least be replacement-level starters. The Magic’s lack of true top-end talent may limit the team’s ceiling. But the bench will set the team’s floor.
Orlando’s bench looks much improved. The floor may indeed be a bit higher this year.
Jonathon Simmons Outlook
Arron Afflalo Outlook
Shelvin Mack Outlook
D.J. Augustin Outlook
Bismack Biyombo Outlook
Marreese Speights Outlook
Jonathan Isaac Outlook
On The Fringe
The Orlando Magic seemed like they would be a good team to take a chance on some young players. After all, this is a group that was scrounging at the bottom of the standings last year. Those are the teams likely to take a chance on young players and hope to hit on one. Or, at least, use them to sink to the bottom and get a higher draft pick.
The Magic are not that typical team, though. Orlando still has Playoff aspirations. The team’s decision to go after veterans — even on minimum contracts — is a sign of that. The Magic are not packing it in. They are still going after it.
It cost the Magic some promising young players. Marcus Georges-Hunt looked ready to contribute to the team in Summer League. But Orlando ate up his minutes by signing Jonathon Simmons and Arron Afflalo. They cut him and let him go to the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Even the young guys they signed do not seem to have much a future on the team. Their two-way signee, Adreian Payne, is a bit more of a veteran and does not have a clear fit on the roster as currently constructed.
The Magic have some fringe guys, but it seems like they are just building depth for training camp and then looking to stock the Lakeland Magic rather than the main roster. The team has 14 guaranteed roster and not a lot of time for everyone to play.
Even Mario Hezonja will have a tough time finding minutes. The third-year guard struggled to get his shot right last year and the goodwill of getting drafted fifth overall has seemingly run out.
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Second round pick Wesley Iwundu looks likely to spend a lot of time on the bench or in the G-League with Lakeland. The veteran defensive-minded wing still has to improve his shot to make it in the league. But the Magic like his potential and length.
Free agent signee Khem Birch turned down a lot of money leaving Euroleague glory. But there is no guarantee he makes this roster — or finds time if he does. He is an athletic power forward who specializes on the defensive end. He fits the style the Magic are looking for. But his talent feels like it is what the Magic ultimately want to feature.
The final guys all seem like they are in camp to be bodies for camp more than players for the Magic. Troy Caupain and Kalin Lucas are likely to head to the G-League. And Damjan Rudez is not likely to make it past cut-down date.
Orlando went older with the team’s free agent signings. Its young guys in camp are there to develop, likely in Lakeland more than Orlando.
Mario Hezonja Outlook
Wesley Iwundu Outlook
Khem Birch Outlook
Adreian Payne Outlook
Troy Caupain Outlook
Kalin Lucas Outlook
Damjan Rudez Outlook
Overall Outlook
What does this season hold in store for the Orlando Magic? Did this team do enough to achieve its goal of returning to the Playoffs? Would that put the team on solid footing for its future or push it inevitably and permanently toward mediocrity?
Can “just making the Playoffs” be an acceptable goal for now with the consequences coming later?
I have often described this season as a no-lose season. The Magic are capped out for the next year at least, maybe the next two. This is the roster the Magic have for the moment. And they seem determined to make the most of it.
It is a roster still with some serious flaws. The team lacks top-end talent and the offense could still be a huge mystery. There is no clear go-to scorer. The team will have its struggles throughout the year.
The Magic struggled mightily on the defensive end and that still comprises much of their identity. From coach Frank Vogel to the key players they hope to build around in Aaron Gordon and Jonathan Isaac.
Any Playoff dreams for this team are indeed going to be from the team getting in on the skin of their teeth. For things to go right, the Magic will need a lot of players to step up to the plate and continue their improvement. It is not merely several players returning to the mean.
This is a season where the Magic are trying to reset themselves after hitting the wall of the last five years. At the very least, the goal is for Orlando to find a path forward. It is not merely about making the Playoffs or not. It is about finding a way forward.
That is the task ahead of Jeff Weltman. His first season is not to tear down the remnants of a previous dynasty. His first season is to find value in what he has and start moving the team forward.
That starts on the court still. The Magic have to find a way to salvage something from this team. Or at least sort out what can work from what does not. One way or the other.
The best way to do that might still be to see the team play to its ceiling — however high or low that may be.
The Magic’s 2018 season is not likely to be among the most memorable. It could, at its best, end up being the worst Playoff team in franchise history overall. That will not matter. Winning is an end in itself, especially for a young group and a fan base that has been without it for five years.
Next: Jeff Weltman reveals his type
Orlando will have to sit back and see what it can come up with this year. The one thing everyone should know is that the Magic will find a way forward by April of 2018.