Arron Afflalo was beaming about his return to the Orlando Magic over the summer. As the season begins, Afflalo has to continue his shift into a role player.
It was hard not to feel the warmth coming off Arron Afflalo as he walked back to the Amway Center for the first time in three years.
Sure, it was understandable that Afflalo had warm memories of his two-year run with the Orlando Magic but to be beaming like he had? To be saying hello to old friends? To fill his Instagram account with love letter after love letter to Orlando and his new team?
This seemed like, at least to Afflalo, a great match for him. A place where he felt comfortable and felt like he could succeed. Even on a minimum contract after several decent years.
It is not that Afflalo fell off the face of the earth or seemed on the verge of complete deterioration. He still had a place in the NBA. He signed a veteran’s minimum contract to be in Orlando, specifically it would seem.
The homecoming story and his public affection for Orlando and the Magic are still nice elements to his story. But everything will change once he takes the court. And ultimately what will make this reunion successful or not is what he does on the floor.
Orlando Magic
Afflalo will not be the star he was his first run in Orlando. He was miscast in that role the first time and he probably cannot sustain that level anymore. His role will undoubtedly be different this time around. There is no getting around it.
This time around, the Magic will ask him to play a more supporting role. They will ask him to help spread the floor off the bench and serve as a leader in the locker room. The typical things young teams ask of veterans.
Afflalo still has something to contribute. Even as he struggled to find his place in different locations since leaving Orlando, he still produced. It is not clear why those situations did not work — it may have been a combination of team dynamics, a hunger for a more consistent role and going into unstable situations like with the New York Knicks and Sacramento Kings. There is always a chance this happy homecoming does not work out either.
Afflalo is probably not willing to think about that possibility. He seems committed to whatever the franchise needs from him right now. Afflalo was a professional in his first stint with the Magic and is not going to back down himself. He still has something to say for this team on the court.
With Afflalo, he has to make good on the second half of his homecoming story — he has to perform and deliver for the Magic.
What To Look For
From 2013-14, Arron Afflalo had two of the best seasons of his career and nearly pushed for a spot on the Eastern Conference All-Star Team. If not for the Magic’s poor record, he might have made it. That is the other element to that selection.
Those two years, Afflalo averaged 17.4 points per game on an efficient 50.2 percent effective field goal percentage. It was especially impressive considering the team he was on — he was the best, most veteran player on a young rebuilding team.
He has spent the last three years trying to recapture that, albeit in a smaller role. Afflalo has seen his usage decrease, but he averaged just 11.7 points per game with a 49.9 percent effective field goal percentage since then. He has struggled to find the same consistency in his role, often bouncing from the bench to starting to supporting to having the ball in his hands.
Afflalo seemed to hint he was a bit unhappy with his situations since leaving the Magic. He did not re-spark his play in a homecoming with the Denver Nuggets after the Orlando Magic traded him for Evan Fournier. He struggled to get consistency with the New York Knicks.
Last year with the Sacramento Kings, he was fine, averaging 8.4 points per game and shooting a 51.4 percent effective field goal percentage, including 41.1 percent from beyond the arc. Afflalo was a part-time starter last year and played 25.9 minutes per game. His production was fine, but it was clear there was still something off.
The Magic are not likely to put Afflalo on the ball very much. He is not going to be the high-usage player he was with the Magic in the first stint with the team. And Afflalo still seems in the process of evolving his game.
He uses less of those mid-post isolations he had with his first run and more of his spot-up 3-point game. It has slowly improved. But he has not reached the 42.7 percent from beyond the arc he had his final year in Orlando. He is not a perfect pure spot-up shooter. It is unclear how much the Magic might involve him in their offense.
He has averaged 3-4 3-point attempts per game until last year. That might account for his increase in efficiency.
Still, Afflalo is probably one of the more consistent offensive options the Magic have overall. He has proven himself to be capable of creating his own shot on occasion. Orlando will likely rely on him at least to start the season to provide balance and stability to the bench lineup.
He will not hit the highs he hit in his first stint with the Magic, but Afflalo certainly can still make a major contribution.
What Could Go Wrong
Father time knows no defeat. Eventually, players deteriorate and struggle to keep up with younger players. Skills diminish and players have to figure out how to fit into new roles and new identities on the court.
Afflalo enters this season at 31 years old. His season last year with the Sacramento Kings was largely his worst statistical season since his first couple years with the Detroit Pistons.
His final average of 8.4 points per game was the lowest since the 2010 season. And it has been a precipitous decline for him ever since he left the Magic in 2014. His 25.9 minutes per game last year, in 61 games and 45 starts, were the fewest he has played since 2009.
It is hard not to see all these numbers and not sense a decline from Afflalo. He is at that age.
That does not mean he cannot contribute meaningfully, but his role will have to change.
When he was with the Magic in 2014, Afflalo averaged 3.2 drives per game. He was hardly efficient on those drives — 2.2 points per game and 41.1 percent field goal percentage. But the Magic put the ball in his hands and let him go to work in some form of isolation.
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On pull-up opportunities, Afflalo shot 5.2 field goal attempts per game. He scored 4.9 points per game on pull-up shots. Afflalo had a career-best 23.3 percent usage rate as he had his best individual season.
Last year with the Kings, Afflalo averaged just 1.2 drives per game. And his efficiency was worse — 0.8 points per game on drives and 37.8 percent shooting on drives. On pull-up opportunities, Afflalo scored just 1.9 points per game and shot 39.7 percent from the floor. His usage rate dipped to 14.4 percent.
Afflalo became mostly a spot-up shooter last year. And it largely worked considering he shot 41.1 percent from beyond the arc. On spot-up opportunities, according to NBA.com, Afflalo shot 57.6 percent effective field goal percentage and scored 1.15 points per possession.
He has, at least slowly, transformed himself into a better supporting shooter.
That seems to be the way for Afflalo to save his career. The Magic may well put the ball in his hands some. But without other shooters to help spread the floor off the bench, it will be tough to give him the ball. His role may very well be a spot-up shooter almost exclusively.
He is going to be very different than that first stint with Orlando. And that could mean his role diminishes again as he continues to get a bit older. Afflalo is still making that transformation to grizzled vet. His success may depend more on the players around him.
Going Home
Arron Afflalo was essentially the one who broke the news he was returning to Orlando. On his Instagram account, he posted a photo of himself in his old Magic uniform with a message of gratitude for the franchise that “believed in him the most.”
Since then, Afflalo has continued to express his love affair with the franchise. Sending a message to those that doubted him and his team — he was miffed when ESPN predicted the Magic would finish 10th in the Eastern Conference. He posted images of his old Magic jerseys and his appreciation for The City Beautiful.
It was surprising and refreshing. How many veterans in his position would agree to a minimum deal with a 29-win team?
Of course, everyone knows the nostalgia can fade once the games start up again. It is often tough to recapture the magic of a homecoming. It is a nice story to tell until the games start counting. Then production, role and results matter.
The last time the Magic made a move that seemingly was designed specifically as a homecoming was when they reacquired Hedo Turkoglu in 2011.
Orlando had ridden Turkoglu and his playmaking ability to the NBA Finals in 2009. But the team quickly decided it would not meet his price in free agency. He signed a five-year, $54-million contract with the Toronto Raptors and immediately struggled. After averaging 16.8 points, 5.3 rebounds and 4.9 assists per game in Orlando in 2009, Turkoglu never reached those heights again.
Orlando re-acquired him in December 2010, and he averaged 11.4 points per game, 5.1 assists and 4.6 rebounds per game. In that second stint with the Magic from 2011-13, Turkoglu continued to decline. He was never the same.
It was probably unfair to ask Turkoglu at 31 years old (the same age as Afflalo) to maintain his production as he aged. Then again, the Magic’s championship window was open. And Orlando acquired Turkoglu to try to recapture what worked in 2009. It did not work. And Turkoglu, formerly a fan favorite, quietly passed off into the night in Orlando without much ceremony.
Homecomings make for nice stories in the offseason, but they do not win games or guarantee much success.
Afflalo is not at the same level as Turkoglu. And the Magic are bringing him back under much different expectations and circumstances. But the homecoming story can go sour very quickly.
Overall Outlook
Arron Afflalo is clearly not the same player he was in his first stint with the Magic. He still has much the same temperament — his patience and professionalism especially — but age has started to erode some of his skills. Afflalo struggled mightily after he left Orlando as his role began to shift.
That is not to say Afflalo cannot accomplish some of the same things he did in Orlando from time to time. But his isolation play and mid-post play are likely to decrease as he becomes more of a spot-up shooter.
That is probably the area the Magic will expect the most from Afflalo. Orlando desperately needs shooting. And Afflalo has provided that shooting. He did in his first stint with the Magic and he did so last year, in a largely a spot-up role. That might be the direction Afflalo’s career is headed.
That is a need the Magic had to fill. And so it seems like he is going to get his chance to play and make an impact for this Magic team. If he can be a 40 percent 3-point shooter like he was last year for the Kings and keep his production fairly steady, he will be a good role player for the Magic.
It is easy to get swept up into the nostalgia and the hope of restoring him to a previous level of play. That would be unfair to expect on Afflalo. He just is not that player anymore. His contributions will be key, but they will not necessarily be extremely widespread.
Afflalo is a great addition as a role player. He just has to continue the transition to playing that role. Afflalo has improved his 3-point shooting, but it is not proven quite yet. He has not done what the Magic are asking of him for long. And, of course, he may rely heavily on his teammates to create for him.
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It is great to see Afflalo already so invested in the team. He wants to succeed with this team. It means a lot to him. That is a great place to start for the Magic. Whether he can make good on this and produce is the bigger question now that the season is set to begin.