The Orlando Magic have pinned a lot of hope on sixth overall pick Jonathan Isaac. His rookie year may be a slow development push on the young rookie.
The Orlando Magic knew they had an opportunity to make a big impact for their franchise with the sixth pick in the 2017 NBA Draft. It was one of the lower picks they have had in the course of this rebuild. But in this draft, they felt they could grab a potential star.
In reality, the player they took sixth in 2017 very well could become a better player or be a more talented prospect than the player they took second in 2013 (Victor Oladipo), fourth in 2014 (Aaron Gordon) and fifth in 2015 (Mario Hezonja).
Their timeline would matter — would they go for someone who could make an immediate impact or take on a longer project — but the expectation was clearly set that at six they believed they could draft a future star. Someone to build around and jump start their stalled rebuild.
That, of course, did not mean they would immediately throw that player into the fire. He may one day become a star, but for now, he would have to fit in with what the Magic were building. And with new management in place, it would set the tone for their rebuilding plan.
Jonathan Isaac, then, represents both the team’s future and the hope for the present. That might be unfair, there were certainly players who could make a bigger immediate impact. But Isaac, whom the Magic took with that coveted sixth overall pick, is very much a project.
The 19-year-old forward had his moments of brilliance with the Florida State Seminoles. But they were few and far between. He often faded into the background offensively. His star potential is seen in his physical attributes and defensive ability. That is far ahead of where his offense is. But the potential is all there.
He fits a vision of wing player John Hammond had with the Milwaukee Bucks and seems to be in vogue these days in the NBA. His length and athleticism could make him a defensive terror. And when he did assert himself at Florida State, he was a good driver, confident shooter and dynamic player. It is just getting all of that out of him.
There will probably be only flashes of all that potential in his rookie year. Those will be what the team has to hold onto. Otherwise, he likely plays a similar role to the one he played at Florida State — developing in the background.
What To Look For
There are plenty of stories and examples of raw, athletic rookies needing some time to get their feet wet in the NBA. This kind of hands-off approach means that player will take a slow development and only occasionally show flashes of what he will become. If he ever reaches that.
This is likely the direction the Magic head with Jonathan Isaac in his rookie year.
The team will probably keep his role fairly simple, asking him to come off the bench, defend, run the floor and hit the occasional open 3-pointer. The Magic are not going to throw him into the deep end. Not with their starting lineup seemingly loaded with veterans and the still-promising Aaron Gordon.
Orlando Magic
The odds too of the Magic throwing out the super athletic defensive tandem of Isaac and Gordon together does not seem likely, at least early in the year. Not until Isaac proves he can defend at a high level in the NBA (which the Magic should think he can) and can hit an open 3-pointer. There may be instances when teams go super small that the Magic may use this to counter those “death lineups.”
Isaac’s role is going to end up very similar to what he played at Florida State. There, Isaac averaged 12.0 points and 7.8 rebounds per game, posting a 56.8 percent effective field goal percentage. He hit on 34.8 percent of his 3-point attempts.
The criticism for Isaac was he often stayed on the perimeter too much and faded into the background as veteran players Dwayne Bacon and Xavier Rathon-Mays dominated the ball. No one ever saw Isaac be “the guy.”
But he still found a way to get involved with his defense and rebounding. And when he attacked the basket, he was effective. Doing that at the NBA level is always the challenge. It is a challenge every rookie has to push through.
The Magic are not likely to give Isaac too much responsibility his rookie year. They recognize they drafted someone who will take a lot of time to develop properly. And so his role will remain fairly simple. If Isaac delivers on the defensive end as the team anticipates, it will be a good rookie season.
What Could Go Wrong
There is always a fair amount of risk in rookie trying to make it into the league. Few make it cleanly into the league — particularly when their role is larger and they are one of the youngest players in the Draft. So Jonathan Isaac’s impact is likely to be minimal from a role impact. And every rookie makes mistakes.
But the reasons everyone was so hesitant to draft him — or favored point guard Dennis Smith Jr. — was the uncertainty over his potential. Isaac is literally just a bundle of potential with little sign of what he can become except a few flashes at Florida State.
The overarching storyline with Isaac was his passivity. He stayed on the perimeter too much and never got involved in the offense. Isaac just hovered there, only scoring in transition and never showing off that prodigious athleticism and ability. He posted only a 20.3 percent usage rate, according to Sports-Reference. That is about the mark of an average player.
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Nobody has really seen Isaac at his most assertive or at his best. That is the unknown everyone is banking on. It may not come out this year, but the Magic have to encourage Isaac to take his stand when it makes sense and to run plays for him.
Nobody knows how successful those could be.
Then there is the logjam in the future. And everyone knows it.
Jonathan Isaac and Aaron Gordon are very similar players. They are both super athletic bigs who do not really have a position. Isaac might be better suited to play the 3 because he projects as a better jump shooter, but that might still be a bit of a stretch. Eventually, the team will have to figure out how to play their two athletic wings together or pick one or the other — and Gordon’s contract situation likely does not make that easier, nor does Gordon’s potential as the best player on the team.
Orlando has done a very good job collecting players with similar attributes in the last five years, to the confusion of many. Drafting Isaac seemed very much like doing that again as a bigger version of Gordon.
Maybe the Magic’s timeline to succeed is longer than everyone imagines and they have the time to wait on Isaac to develop. But there are definitely storm clouds on the horizon.
For now, the Magic should just focus on getting the most out of Isaac and drawing out his inner aggression.
Growing Confidence
The biggest puzzle for the Magic to solve when it comes to Jonathan Isaac is how to draw out that bit of aggression from him. It will be easy for him to fade into the background again. But for Isaac to become the star the Magic hoped to select with the sixth overall pick, they will need him to assert himself more.
Somehow the Magic will have to imbue this confidence in him. It may take the full year and the Magic may pick the spots where they turn the ball over to him or slowly increasing his role as he grasps concepts and masters them. It could be a season of starts and stops.
But if Summer League showed anything, it is that Isaac can be a very confident player once he gets comfortable.
In his three games at Summer League (really 2.5 after he left the third game with a hip injury), Isaac averaged 10.3 points and 8.0 rebounds per game. He shot just 44.4 percent, but there were some small sample sizes to sort through.
What was important is that he looked better in each game of Summer League. His confidence was brimming until it overflowed in the final game. The only thing that stopped his momentum was the injury. But the Magic had clearly seen enough from him not to risk anymore.
His first game, he was clearly nervous. But even with his nerves, he played some stellar defense and attacked the glass aggressively. He posted double-digit rebounds in that first game. Isaac certainly could keep things simple as he felt his way through the game.
The second game, he was much more assertive. He still made some offensive mistakes, but it was easy to tell he felt more comfortable on the court.
In the third game, through about a quarter and a half before he left, Isaac was the best player on the floor. He confidently drove the ball and hit pull-up jumpers. He was dominant defensively throughout the week too. A sign of where he is committed to making an impact immediately as a rookie. That would be plenty for the Magic to ask for his rookie year.
What that week showed was how quickly Isaac can gain confidence. If the Magic can grow his success and build confidence, it seems like Isaac could accomplish about anything.
Overall Outlook
Jonathan Isaac’s rookie year is going to be a bit of a process. That is the lot of a player who is still so young and so raw.
The Magic are likely to bring Isaac off the bench and let him develop slowly, helping him gain confidence with little successes. The last thing Orlando wants to do is throw too much at him. And so Isaac’s impact in his rookie year is likely to be small. Or at least smaller than some of his peers who may burst onto the scene.
That might rise to some frustration from the fans. But Orlando is playing the long game with Isaac. That was always the plan.
They see Isaac as part of the new wave of versatile bigs who can handle the ball and attack form the perimeter, smothering opponents with their defensive length and athleticism. Isaac fits this mold perfectly. It is just about having the patience to let him grow.
The Magic appear to have that patience. In the 2018 season, they are going to plan that seed and let it grow. But it will probably grow slowly.
For this coming year, Isaac’s role should remain fairly simple. The Magic will expect him to play strong defense, run the floor and finish at the rim. As he masters this simple role, the Magic are likely to expand his role. His season may come with fits and starts, but the team is going to remain patient with him. It would not be surprising to see Isaac play a few spot games in Lakeland for the Lakeland Magic.
It is going to be a slow process with Isaac. But one that should still hold a ton of promise.
Isaac has already shown he has a ton of defensive potential and put that ability on display at Summer League. His offense will have to come around. If the Magic can remain patient, he may very well turn into a solid player.
Next: 2018 Orlando Magic Player Outlook: Terrence Ross
Perhaps even that star the Magic have sought for so long.