Aaron Gordon had to deal with a position change that hurt his overall production. He bounced back to end the year. Now he has to show what he is worth.
When the Orlando Magic drafted Aaron Gordon with the fourth pick in the 2014 NBA Draft, they had high expectations for the forward with his budding athleticism and defensive abilities.
While Gordon has not been a bust at all, he has not really reached the bar many thought he would be at by now.
Last year, new coach Frank Vogel tried out Aaron Gordon at the small forward position after the team acquired Serge Ibaka and placed him at power forward.
It did not go well for Gordon.
His field goal percentage dropped from 47 percent in the 2016 season to 45 percent last year. Probably the most significant drop in his numbers was in the rebound category. Gordon’s rebound numbers dropped from 6.5 per game in 2016 to just 5.1 last year.
That is a pretty significant drop for someone with touted athletic ability playing the forward position.
The good news for Gordon? After the Ibaka trade, he was moved back to power forward and will get a whole season again to play at his more natural four spot. His numbers generally rebounded — his rebounds went back up to 6.2 per game after the All-Star Game.
Gordon will now be entering a contract year. He will have to prove to the Magic he is worth investing in long term with a decent contract. Otherwise, he could be playing in a different uniform next year and possibly even before the end of this year.
For Gordon, a player who entered the league with tons of promise and potential to cash in on, now is the time for him to step up to the plate.
What to Look For
Aaron Gordon’s goal for this year is to have a breakout season.
He will be trying to make a lasting impression throughout the year to convince the Magic to stay with him long term. He did his best to do that to end last season.
After the Magic (finally) moved him back up to power forward, Gordon’s numbers took a huge leap forward. He averaged just 11.2 points and 4.6 rebounds per game on 44.8 percent field goal percentage before the All-Star Break. After the Break, with Ibaka gone and Gordon back at power forward, Gordon averaged 16.4 points and 6.2 rebounds per game with a 50.3 percent field goal percentage.
Orlando Magic
Those post-All-Star numbers are more in line with what the Magic want to see from Gordon overall. Expanding that play will guarantee him the breakout he and everyone else, has been waiting on for three years.
The biggest areas for Gordon to improve on will be his outside shooting and interior defense.
Gordon has been working to extend his shooting range and there has been video evidence this offseason to show that he is working and improving it. It certainly could use improvement after he hit on just 28.8 percent of his 3-pointers.
Look for Gordon to become more assertive on offense looking to contribute a solid amount of points throughout the season as well as becoming more physical and more of a presence in the paint on the defensive end. Especially when it comes to rim protection.
Gordon should make it a goal to be a scoring threat from virtually anywhere on the court and become the super athletic stretch-4 Orlando has not had since the likes of Rashard Lewis and Ryan Anderson.
And his mentality this year seems to be more shoot first and get points. He showed plenty of aggressiveness last year as he got more comfortable working in the mid post and driving on power forwards rather than small forwards.
Gordon will also be looking to be more of a defensive monster helping Nikola Vucevic and Bismack Biyombo protect the rim while they are on the floor. Gordon will make his presence more known other than when he is throwing monster dunks down.
What Could Go Wrong
While there is much optimism for Aaron Gordon there is also room for things to go wrong.
With the Orlando Magic drafting Jonathan Issac this year, a lot of talk has gone into how to implement a lineup where Gordon and Issac can play together. Until the Magic find that right lineup, if they do this season, there will be lots of mixing of minutes which could throw off Gordon’s rhythm, or push him back to that perimeter role he struggled with last year.
Jonathan Isaac and Aaron Gordon should complement each other — Isaac projects better on the perimeter — but there is no denying these are two very similar players. Long, able athletes with high ceilings they have yet to reach.
To add on top of the Issac narrative, if Gordon starts the season flat and non-impressive, he will have an eager and ready rookie waiting in the wings to take his place in the lineup. Meaning his minutes could disappear very quickly. Or that limitless potential may reach its limit.
Gordon will also have to worry about being sub-par this season for his own good. This is a contract year. He will no longer have the comfort of development under a rookie contract. The Magic will spend the year figuring out exactly how to value him — as will the rest of the NBA.
For the flashes Gordon has shown, he still has been a fiarly inconsistent player. In all, he averaged just 12.7 points per game last year. That is hardly the kind of player a franchise builds around. His play to end the season last year was encouraging and suggests he could take the leap.
But everyone in the Magic organization has hoped for that the last three years too. It has never come — whether it was because of injuries to start the seaosn slowing his development or coaching instability. It appears Gordon does not have any of those excuses entering camp this year.
On the court, the worst that could happen for Gordon is to have a scoring slump or unimpressive scoring numbers. His defense should always be there and he can carve a role there. But ultimately what could turn him into a star or foundational building block is his offensive ability.
If Gordon does not consistently score above double digits this season, it could spell trouble for him, especially as Orlando looks for more scoring contribution throughout the team. He will also have to provide a bigger prescence on the defensive end, especially in the paint.
Contract Year
With this being a contract year for Aaron Gordon, a lot will be on the line with his performance.
Gordon will be playing for a new contract to stay in Orlando or for another team to add him on a solid contract. And either way Gordon will be looking for a great payday.
Gordon’s goal this year is clear. He should work toward being the centerpiece star on the Orlando Magic, a significant piece of the young core they continue to build around.
Along those same lines, if Gordon does not play well this year the Magic may decide not to offer him a contract for next year, leaving Gordon having to promote himself in free agency waiting for another team to pick him up. Restricted free agency will still give the Magic signifcant control as they have the right ot match any offer.
Still, Gordon’s future with the team and where he fits in the league is up in the air this season.
That is also considering he makes it through the year with the Magic.
There has been much talk that if Gordon fails to have a standout year this year, new Magic management will pull the trigger before the trade deadline and ship Gordon off somewhere in a trade, recouping some assets or pawning off another of their high-priced players. President of basketball operations Jeff Weltman has not revealed much about the direction he wants to take the team. But he will have to be willing to make the most of every asset.
If Gordon’s year is not great, he will have that looming over his head as Orlando may not want to wait until the end of the season with more questions about Gordon and any contract options he may have.
Orlando might feel that they can get more out of trading Gordon than the possibility of just letting him walk at the end of the season.
It is truly a make or break season with Gordon for the Magic.
Overall Outlook
Aaron Gordon is poised for a make or break season.
It will be up to him to decide whether or not it goes very well or not so much. The hope is with the work he has put in during the offseason, the new additions to the team and the overall optimism coming from Magic camp, that Gordon is ready for a great season.
If his shooting improves this year, Gordon will become a solid offensive weapon for the Magic being able to shoot from anywhere on the floor, attacking the paint, getting out on the fast break and getting putbacks flying through the paint to the rim.
Gordon has been a solid defender throughout his NBA career. Orlando will rely on him to defend many of the best players in the league. If he can really become a presence down low in the paint and be a big rim protector, the Magic will tout a strong defensive team especially in their second year under head coach Frank Vogel.
Next: 2018 Orlando Magic Player Outlook: Shelvin Mack
Aaron Gordon will be dissected throughout the year to see whether Orlando will want to offer him a new contract or not, it is now his time to rise to that occasion.