Nikola Vucevic made strides on defense last season. But now he has to put it all together. As the longest-tenured player on the team, Vucevic will continue to be a major contributor.
One step forward and two steps back. That was the story for Nikola Vucevic in 2017.
Known for being an offense-first center, Vucevic had something of a transformation last season. Under coach Frank Vogel, Nikola Vucevic was able to develop on the defensive end.
For much of the season, Vucevic’s future was a major debate for the Orlando Magic fan base. There were many that felt he should remain in Orlando as a franchise building block, while others felt he had reached his ceiling and would be a better trade chip. It has always seemed trade rumors followed Vucevic because of his imperfect skill set and team-friendly contract.
With trade rumors swirling, Vucevic continued to push through a tough campaign. He could not find his rhythm offensively and the Magic continued to struggle. Vucevic averaged 14.6 points per game and 10.4 rebounds per game. His scoring was the lowest since his first two years in Orlando. His field goal percentage dipped to 46.8 percent as he took more jumpers than ever.
Although Vucevic did not make the leap that many projected, not all the blame can be on him. Orlando’s roster put him in a bad position. Playing next to forward Serge Ibaka, Nikola Vucevic was pushed farther from the basket, making his game more predicated on making jump shots.
The odd roster construction made it hard for Vucevic to carve a role. It took until Ibaka’s departure at the trade deadline for Vucevic to find some sort of groove.
Still, the improvement on defense was enough to keep Vucevic as the starting center for the majority of the season. Frank Vogel tried to slide Bismack Biyombo into the starting role, but Biyombo was unable to provide any production offensively.
Limited physically, Vucevic became a smarter defender. He put himself in better positioning and used his big frame to cause his matchup to adjust his shot in mid-air. Thanks to Vogel, Vucevic worked on his strengths on defense rather than try to be someone he is not.
Of course, there is still work to do on that side of the ball. But it appears defense will not be a major flaw in Vucevic’s game in the future.
The question now will be Vucevic’s return to form on offense. Will he be able to average 16-plus points per game? Or has he lost his touch?
What To Look For
Looking toward 2018, Nikola Vucevic should return to his old self on offense. Serge Ibaka will no longer clog the lane. Vucevic will have room to operate with Aaron Gordon now getting the majority of the minutes at power forward.
Allowing Vucevic to move closer to the basket will allow him to return to his comfort zone. He will be able to use his repertoire down in the post. Forcing his opposition to give him a step or two and open up his mid-range shot again.
His post play dropped dramatically last year. In 2016, Vucevic averaged 5.4 post up possesions per game, according to NBA.com. He posted 0.93 points per possession. Last year, Vucevic averaged only 3.7 post up possessions per game, seeing his points per possession drop to 0.80.
If Vucevic can regain his consistency on offense, Orlando should find it easier to score. Although many criticize Vucevic for being an offense-first center, he creates mismatches that many teams are unable to handle.
Orlando Magic
Orlando will probably stay with the tried-and-true formula with Vucevic as the offense’s centerpiece. He can score from anywhere inside the 3-point line and has shown the ability to pass at a high level.
On defense, Vucevic should maintain the same level of defense he had last season. Again, nothing special, but enough to get the job done against the majority of NBA centers.
Vucevic should play closer to the basket this season. The rest of the forwards on the team are more fit to play closer to the perimeter, using their athleticism to their advantage. If they do not leave Vucevic on an island, he will have another successful season.
As always, trade talks will circulate around the 26-year-old big man. Orlando could fade from the playoff race early leaving Vucevic as an obvious trade chip.
It is far too early to tell what his value may be at the deadline, but his future with the Magic is definitely in doubt. That may not necessarily be his fault either. He likely does not fit the mold that Jeff Weltman and the front office have in mind.
What Could Go Wrong
It seems to be a trend during the 2018 outlook posts, but if Nikola Vucevic has a season like last year, the Magic will be in trouble. The team will depend on him to be a double-double machine.
Things will turn ugly for him if he cannot find his jump shot. Vucevic’s jumper is a key part of his game. If the range is not there, Orlando’s spacing will be even more of an issue.
Overall, he needs to return to form offensively. The major drop off in almost every statistical category including points per game, field goal percentage and free throw percentage (inexplicably down to 66.9 percent) was eye-opening.
As Orlando tried to fix its roster last year with a few quick changes through free agency and trades, Vucevic lost a solid role on the team. The newcomers quickly bit into his minutes and it affected his play.
Playing alongside Bismack Biyombo and Serge Ibaka did not make Vucevic’s life any easier. Neither pairing seemed to work on either side of the ball. All three players struggled to gel together causing major headlines and eventually leading to a change of scenery in Orlando’s front office.
This offseason also features plenty of new faces. Not the big names like last year, but productive veterans looking to prove themselves on a young team. Only time will tell if Vucevic can play with a new-look Magic team.
At this point in his career, Vucevic is what he is. There will not be any major strides in his development or numbers that will take the league by storm. He is a solid center who has improved some aspect of his game in every season as a pro.
2018 will be a rough season for him if he cannot remain steady. Whether it be trade rumors or the supporting cast around him. 2018 must be a rebound year.
The Trade Winds
In all likelihood, the biggest story surrounding Nikola Vucevic will be his future with Orlando. In past seasons, teams have expressed interest in him and his name always pops up in trade rumors and discussions.
Unless Orlando shocks most of the experts, they will be sellers at the deadline. Making Vucevic one of Orlando’s most sought-after pieces.
For some players, being on the trade market can cause issues on the court. They may say otherwise in press conferences and postgame interviews, but Vucevic will have to shift his focus to executing on the floor.
It has not been a problem yet, but there also were not major rumors until well into the season. If rumors start swirling by November, it could cause trouble in the locker room.
Despite the issues that may arise internally regarding Vucevic’s status, it will be a major storyline for the Magic. Moving on from him will signal a changing of the guard. He was one of the key pieces from the original rebuild after Dwight Howard left town.
The reasons are obvious as to why teams will have an interest in Vucevic. On the boards, he has remained solid. Averaging 10-plus rebounds per game in four of the last five seasons. Even with last season’s regression, he is a viable offensive weapon. And he is a passable defender.
Plus, Vucevic has a team-friendly contract. As the salary cap rises, his annual salary — $12.3 million this year, $12.8 million next year — continues to look more like a bargain. Especially for a player that can average a double-double with ease.
All season long Vucevic will be making headlines. Hopefully, he can play at a high level and force the front office to make a tough decision come February.
Overall Outlook
Much of Nikola Vucevic’s struggles last season were due to the odd roster construction. He was in the middle of the well-documented logjam at center for Orlando. He was put in a poor position and he didn’t have did not skill set to overcome it.
If his 2017 numbers were a fluke, he should have no problem being a main contributor. He has the tools to be one of the best offensive centers in the league. His strong post game, capable passing and ability to stretch the floor make him a rare breed in today’s NBA landscape.
It is safe to assume Vucevic will be able to perform like he did through 2015 and 2016 again. After a summer trying to find his shooting stroke again, he could be a borderline All-Star candidate yet again. The Magic will certainly rely on him for some offensive consistency.
Defensively, Vucevic will be put to the test again. Last season was surely a step in the right direction. But there may not be much more room to grow. Which is not a major problem, considering everything else he brings to the table.
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Where Vucevic has been most consistent has been on the glass. Orlando’s problems on the boards are well documented. He has been the only player that has made is presence felt in that department. Even defensive stalwart Bismack Biyombo struggled in that department last season.
Now, up to this point having Vucevic as the main contributor has not led to many wins. That may not change this season, but that does not mean Vucevic is the problem. He is a productive, efficient player, one who could make a difference on a contending team. Making Vucevic’s future cloudy.
There will be a glut of reports coming throughout the season regarding where Vucevic might be at season’s end.
It is anyone’s guess as to where Vucevic ends up. The debate’ will continue to heat up and he will be a storyline to watch all season long.