Jonathon Simmons was the steal of the summer for the Orlando Magic. But questions still abound about whether he can increase his role and take the next step
It is easy to get lost in the pressure of the Playoffs. The bad performances look worse than they really are and the good performances look better than they really are. It is how a lot of mistakes with contracts get made. See the Orlando Magic’s signing of Bismack Biyombo.
In a lot of those moments, players can sense the opportunity. Especially if they are set to become free agents the next offseason. It is almost expected that sometimes little-used Playoff performers who excel will get that big payday come July.
So it was with Jonathon Simmons and the San Antonio Spurs.
With Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard down with injuries in the latter rounds, Jonathon Simmons was the guy who stepped up. Forget the fact he scored only 6.2 points per game during the regular season, his second in the NBA. What really showed what Simmons could be in a larger role came in the Playoffs where he averaged 10.5 points per game in 20.4 minutes per game.
Here was someone with solid per 36-minute numbers — 12.5 points per 36 minutes during the regular season — delivering in real time. Here was the clear evidence that Simmons was ready to take on more responsibility. Teams could scale up his role and see his production increase.
Even more, considering he averaged 15.3 points per game and shot a 45.7 percent effective field goal percentage in the four-game sweep to the Golden State Warriors with Leonard out after Game One.
Orlando Magic
This was the uber athletic Simmons everyone had seen in flashes finally getting his chance. Surely the money would come, even with restricted free agency hanging over him. There was bound to be someone ready to line up and sign him.
Simmons was not beating back offers this summer. Restricted free agency effectively scared everyone off. And the Spurs decided to cut him loose when the league had spent most of its money.
So it is then the Magic struck. Their patience was rewarded for one of the Playoff standouts and it would add a big boost to the lineup. And at a reasonable price.
Simmons can do all the things he did during the Playoffs. That is the potential he has. It seems he is poised to take on a bigger role. And for the Magic, they likely will use him as their sixth man. He fits the team’s versatile, defensive-minded approach.
Everything seemed to align for Simmons and the Magic in what could be a good culture-building signing and perfect fit. Now he just has to deliver with the opportunity the Magic give him.
What To Look For
Jonathon Simmons’ story to make it to the NBA is quite an incredible one. He paid for his try out with the Austin Spurs and impressed to make that roster. He then impressed enough there to make the San Antonio Spurs. That is no easy feat — going from the D-League to the NBA is impressive enough.
Simmons got there on his pure determination and grit. He cut his teeth on the defensive end. That is where he made his impact and caught Gregg Popovich, R.C. Buford and the Spurs’ eye. He is not in the NBA if he could not defend at an elite level.
By the basic defensive metrics, Simmons was stellar.
Last year he posted 2.1 defensive win shares and had a +0.9 defensive box plus-minus. Yes, the Spurs help with all of that. San Antonio posted the best defensive rating in the league last year. But in Simmons’ limited minutes, it all suggests he is a strong defender, both individually and within a team concept.
Even if Simmons’ defensive numbers slip coming to an unfamiliar system with potentially worse defenders around him in Orlando, Simmons should still be at least solid defensively. That is something that feels innate and translatable across franchises and teams.
This is the big part the Magic signed him for. They wanted a player with some positional versatility — despite his 6-foot-6 size, he certainly has the physicality to guard small forwards in addition to shooting guards. And they wanted someone committed to defense.
The question facing Simmons is whether he can truly expand his role. Whether what he did in the small sample size of his Playoff performance can be stretched out to an 82-game season. That is the big question. There are some reasons to suggest he can. But nobody ever knows until he gets out there and plays. And the Spurs are a warm security blanket for a lot of players.
At the very least, Simmons will be a strong defender the Magic can employ off the bench. They can bring him in to support other defensive-minded players and use him to shore up a perimeter defense that struggled mightily last season.
In that sense, Simmons fills a clear need even if he never takes the big leap.
What Could Go Wrong
There is a long list of players who turned Playoff performances into big contracts and then never reached those heights again. A lot of these players get signed on a relatively small sample size. Bismack Biyombo is definitely one.
Fortunately for the Magic, Jonathon Simmons did not get a humongous contract. A three-year, $18-million contract seems fairly reasonable. Still, the team is going to expect Simmons to play a big role for the team. It seems the Magic are setting him as the sixth man.
That is a lot of responsibility to give to a player who played in only 17.8 minutes per game last year and averaged just a shade north of 6.0 points per game. The Playoffs are a much smaller sample size. Simmons for most of the season was just a bit player.
More from Analysis
- 2023 Orlando Magic Playoff Lessons: Philadelphia 76ers can’t seem to avoid conflict
- Orlando Magic FIBA World Cup: Franz Wagner can be a star if he takes it
- Orlando Magic are going to find out who they are in 2024
- 2024 Orlando Magic Player Outlook: Moe Wagner is the spark off of the bench
- NBA 2K Ratings represent Orlando Magic’s hope and skepticism
True, Simmons had his moments where he busted out — most notably the season opener against the Warriors. He started the season last year with a 20-point, 8-for-14 shooting performance that night on TNT’s opener. He scored in double figures just twice in the next 22 games.
Maybe that is a normal thing for someone coming off the bench. But it is not like Simmons is a 22-year-old rookie coming off a rookie contract. Simmons is closer to his ceiling at 27 years old.
This is still a question. Can someone further along in his career take his game to a higher level with a bigger role?
Then there is Simmons’ most glaring weakness. The weakness that the Magic will not be able to hide.
Simmons shot 29.4 percent from beyond the arc last year. In fairness to him, he shot 38.4 percent as a rookie in 2016 and he shot 35.1 percent in the Playoffs. That would seemingly suggest Simmons can be a decent shooter. And certainly, Simmons is streaky enough that he will have a few games where he gets hot and makes a bunch in a row. Maybe his numbers were low because he did not get enough time or attempts to reach his average.
With all the questions about whether Simmons can step up to a more formal, larger role and make shots at a consistent rate, there are a lot of ways Simmons can go wrong. Especially considering how perfect he fit into the Spurs ethos and system. That security blanket is gone.
Stepping Up to the Plate
And that is always the question with these free agent signings, right? There can be all the analytics and all the information suggesting a player is good and will fit any system, but nobody really knows how a new player will fit until he gets there.
Everyone thought D.J. Augustin would be a good fit as a backup point guard. Or everyone thought the Magic would have a strong defense by adding Serge Ibaka. Those did not pan out precisely as planned. A lot of elements go into whether a player works out. It is not plug and play.
That is the crosshairs that Simmons enters into. Forget the surprise the Magic got him on such a good price for a moment, there was legitimate excitement from Magic fans on adding him. Here was a player many expected to be unobtainable and has a lot of promise in him — even though he is a bit older for a third-year player.
Simmons provides potentially elite defense on the perimeter, a major weakness for the Magic and certainly part of the ethos the team wants to create. It seems like there is a good fit.
And Simmons has shown in the few instances the Spurs asked him to take on a larger role that he can shoulder that burden.
Does that mean he is about to break out as a star? Does that mean he is going to challenge Terrence Ross or Evan Fournier for a starting spot? That might be putting the cart before the horse.
Simmons still has a lot to prove. It is one thing to play 20 minutes per game as a supporting piece on a veteran Spurs team. It is another thing to take on the mantle of primary scorer off the bench — the sixth man — for a young team and compete for minutes with the starters.
There is still that bit of uncertainty of whether Simmons can step up. Add it to the pile of questions the Magic face this year if they want a successful season.
The reality might be there is some inconsistency. Simmons knows what he is good at — his defense, mostly — and he will always provide that. Taking his game to new levels is the big question and a central one the Magic’s season turns on.
Overall Outlook
It is safe to say there are big expectations for Jonathon Simmons this year. The Magic got him on a bargain contract, but that will not in any way diminish what the Magic hope to get from him. It all seems like the Magic are lining up Simmons as the sixth man.
If Simmons did not completely cash in on his Playoff performance financially, it appears he will cash in on it from a role perspective. And so Simmons still has a lot to prove — not to mention one more big contract to look forward to in three years if things work out.
Simmons will see his role increase. He will have to maintain his pace from his per-36 minutes with the Spurs and increase his raw production accordingly. That is never a guarantee to happen. The signing for Simmons centers around his ability to deliver what the Magic need.
Even if he does not become the team’s clear-cut sixth man or challenge for a starting role, Simmons is still a very solid player. He will provide some needed defense off the bench. And if the Magic need a stop late in the game, Simmons is more than capable of coming into the game and being a defensive stopper.
If Simmons does not make the big leap and remains a slightly improved version of what he was last year, that will still be a useful strong player for the team. He fills a need for the team. And when he does go off, like he did last year, the Magic can ride that wave.
So long as Simmons keeps his level of play from last year, there is no reason to think there is much downside to adding him to the team. And there is no sign it is within Simmons’ makeup to rest on his laurels.
Next: Orlando Magic needed to add depth to support starters
That is exactly what the Magic are hoping for.