Coach Frank Vogel’s responsibility lies with developing Elfrid Payton starts with consistent play and a defined role on the Orlando Magic in 2018.
There is no avoiding the reality for third-year starter Elfrid Payton. Payton is entering a contract year with the Orlando Magic this upcoming season. Next summer Payton will be a restricted free agent which will force the Magic to make a decision on his future in Orlando.
After three years of playing largely as the starter, but bouncing in and out of the starting lineup, it is still hard to say definitively what Payton is or where he works best. He has undoubted playmaking and passing skill. But his shooting and defense have not come around. He has not put together much consistency on the floor.
His contract situation — and the Magic passing on a point guard in a point guard-heavy 2017 NBA Draft — puts Payton firmly in the crosshairs. His success or failure will be critical to the team’s success.
Coach Frank Vogel and Magic leadership will need to be definite of Payton’s role. That was something he did not always have last year as Vogel tried desperately to find a combination that worked for his team. That often meant Vogel pulled Payton, and his struggling shot, to the bench.
Orlando Magic
That was something that clearly could not last. What little success the Magic experienced last year, they found by putting the ball in Payton’s hands. Payton played the best basketball of his career the season half of last season and Vogel needs to build upon that success.
Payton’s performance since he was drafted in 2014 has been the definition of a roller coaster. During the 2017 season, that seemed to be even worse.
Payton managed to bring up his points-per-game average up to 12.8 from 10.7 the prior season. But Payton also managed for his 3-point shooting to drop from 32.6 percent in 2016 to 27.4 percent in 2017.
Payton brought his scoring average up last season despite his poor 3-point shooting. This was due to his ability to push the fast break and get to the basket as well as improving his free throw shooting. The Magic’s trade of Serge Ibaka to the Toronto Raptors seemed to free up Payton to push the offense.
His second half of the season was stellar. He racked up five triple-doubles in the second half of the season and averaged 13.5 points, 7.0 rebounds and 8.4 assists per game. Even his shot came around. He took far fewer 3-point shots and made 50.8 percent of his shots after the All-Star Break.
If there was a reason to be optimistic about the upcoming season, Payton’s play to end the season was a big reason why.
The reality with Payton is he is still a young player at 23 years old. He has been in-and-out of the starting lineup his first three years in the league, which undoubtedly impacts his growth. For the 2018 season, Vogel is responsible for staying with Payton as the starter and giving him the keys to let him and the offense flourish.
What to look for
Elfrid Payton is certainly in a prove-it year with the Orlando Magic. He will need to continue to improve his field goal percentage and have a bounce-back year from beyond the arc — or shoot that shot more selectively and efficiently. He will need his improved shooting and his success running the fast break to build upon his finish. If he can, it could be the best year of Payton’s career.
Payton has always hovered around 6.5 assists per game. A full season of playing in a more up-tempo offense may increase those numbers. The biggest x-factor for Payton’s success this season is consistent playing time.
Payton is the assumed starter for the team. If he cannot hold his position there then things have gone horribly wrong for the team.
Payton losing his starting role to D.J. Augustin or Shelvin Mack makes very little sense for a couple of reasons. Neither D.J. Augustin nor Shelvin Mack is the type of player that is going to move the needle for the Magic. They are fine role players who can be productive in limited minutes. But, there is no short-, or long-term benefit starting either of them over Payton.
As the point guard goes, so does everyone else. Payton’s consistent play will impact the success and development for Aaron Gordon and Jonathan Issac.
Coming out of college, Payton was highly regarded as a lengthy guard with defensive abilities that would immediately be able to impact the NBA. The Magic have yet to see Payton consistently play as an elite perimeter defender. Payton has plenty of opportunities to improve his game and the ability to do so, particularly on this end.
He just has to carry over the confidence that turned him into a stat-producing machine after the All-Star Break.
What could go wrong
Elfrid Payton could regress from the improvements he made toward the end of last season and find himself losing playing time to other veteran guards. It happened before, after all.
Poor shooting and turnovers could lead Payton to getting buried on the bench. And that could spell doom for his tenure with the Magic. Payton has to establish himself as the clear-cut point guard of the future.
Last season Payton’s outside shooting stalled the offense in the half-court. This magnified the Magic’s weaknesses on offense.
The Magic are a young, athletic team but are one of the worst shooting teams in the league (29th in both field goal percentage and 3-point percentage last season). Payton’s ability to shoot (47 percent on field goals, 27 percent on 3-pointers and 69 percent from the foul line) heavily impact the spacing on the floor. If Payton improved these numbers, teams would be forced to defend him on the perimeter and give teammates more of a chance to make a play.
Payton had the best stretch of his career playing in a more up-tempo offense after the All-Star Break. If Vogel decides to revert back to primarily half-court sets, it would magnify the need for Payton to improve his shooting.
Payton’s best bet to ensure his starting role and future with the team hinges upon improving his shooting regardless of the offense Vogel runs this season. But if Payton is unable to improve his shooting Vogel could lose all trust and turn to the bench.
This would be a death sentence for Payton in Orlando. His value as a trade asset would plummet because he would no longer be perceived as a starting point guard or a top-tier prospect.
If Payton were to get buried or suffer from an inconsistent role he would most likely be traded at the deadline for pennies on the dollar.
Frank Vogel and Elfrid Payton’s Development
Frank Vogel was praised for his ability to develop young players when the Orlando Magic first hired him last summer. It is time for him to put in work with Payton and get the most out of him as a player.
The Magic falling back to veteran point guards like D.J. Augustin or Shelvin Mack instead of playing Elfrid Payton as the starter (with starter minutes) would be a major setback. Yet, this is exactly what happened for stretches last season as Payton came off the bench for 24 games last year in favor of Augustin.
The Magic need to accept where they are in their rebuild and allow their young players to grow and develop an identity with the team.
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Toward the end of last season, Payton showed the type of offense he can flourish in. Demoting Payton to the bench or not consistently making him the starter will impact his confidence as a player.
Since Payton was drafted, he has not had a consistent environment to allow him to develop and for him to have the franchise’s support. He has always been in and out of the lineup and that impacts his play.
Payton cannot go out on the court wondering if he misses a shot or tries to make a play if it will cost him minutes or eventually a contract. He needs to know he can go out, play, and if he makes a mistake it is all a part of the process. The lesson to be learned from making a mistake is to not to worry about playing time but to learn and grow from it.
The Magic may be ready to move on from Payton after this season. They may not be willing to make a heavy financial investment in him. If that is the case, it is understandable.
But, have a plan. If the Magic do not plan on re-signing Payton in the summer of 2018 they need to showcase him. Battling for the starting role with D.J. Augustin and Shelvin Mack is going to hurt his return.
Either way, Payton needs to be playing as the starter.
Overall Outlook
The Orlando Magic traded the draft rights to Dario Saric for the draft rights to Elfrid Payton. They invested a lot in him and made him the point guard of the future. Saric played very well last season which makes the move seem questionable in hindsight.
Now the management group that drafted and invested so much in Payton is gone. Payton has to prove himself all over again.
If the first stage of his audition was the end to last season, then he at least has started on the right foot. One could argue Elfrid Payton was the biggest beneficiary of the Serge Ibaka trade to the Toronto Raptors.
The current roster arguably complements Payton better than any group he has played with thus far. This sets Payton up to build off of his success from last season.
The run that Payton had to end last season and new roster gives reason to think Payton will show improvements. Also, Vogel’s will have a positive impact on the entire roster. This will be the first returning coach since Jacque Vaughn was let go in 2015.
Payton should have a firm claim on the Magic’s starting point guard role. But he is out of excuses to hold onto it. The Magic need to see him gain some consistency and put a firm imprint on this team and the team’s future. That is the part that remains uncertain with Payton.
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And the reason why so much importance encircles Payton this year.