Paolo Banchero understands the pressure that comes with being the No. 1 pick and the star of a team with title expectations.
It felt like that was something he invited and embraced. It was one of the main arguments for the Orlando Magic to make him the number one pick in the 2022 NBA Draft. He wanted to be the guy and wanted the ball in the pressure-packed moments.
He seemed especially prepared and capable to do that.
That pressure comes with criticism when a player fails to deliver. Or fails to deliver what the national world wants a player to be.
In the always spinning world of the NBA mediasphere, even one slip-up can create a narrative that can be difficult to escape.
And after three straight first-round exits, those eyes are trained on Banchero.
As the Magic prepare for a critical season to prove they still have a young group capable of competing for a championship, the entire league is putting the pressure on Banchero to carry the team there. This team's failures will fall on Banchero after an especially dismal season for the team and player.
The very idea of Banchero as the lead player of a championship-level team could be at stake this season. Failure will force the Magic to consider far bigger changes.
Other players will, of course, have a responsibility in that too.
Franz Wagner needs to be healthy to realize his full impact. The Magic need more consistency from Jalen Suggs and Wendell Carter. The Magic need to click with their new coach, Sean Sweeney.
But a team goes as far as its stars. And the league still does not know if Banchero is a star.
For the Magic to be successful, he has to prove he is a star. The pressure is on.
The Banchero debate
It has become the favorite thing in the NBA to debate Paolo Banchero.
He has become a favorite punching bag for the analytics crowd. And ultimately, he has not produced the results to put up a proper defense. Certainly not holding a 3-1 series lead after Franz Wagner's injury did not help his argument.
Banchero has put up the numbers one would expect from a superstar player, averaging 22.3 points per game in his career along with 7.4 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game in his career. He averaged 22.2 points, 8.4 rebounds and 5.2 assists per game last year in what everyone considered a poor season.
Banchero was named an All-Star in his second season in 2024, leading the Magic back to the Playoffs. He would have been an All-Star in 2025 if not for a torn oblique.
But the talk around the league is that Banchero has failed to live up to the billing. And that is what is holding the Magic back.
"If Paolo can't hit a jump shot, they are going to trade him," Matt Moore said on Locked On NBA. "They are going to move on with Franz Wagner as the best player on their team. That's just what is going to happen. Paolo Banchero has had great playoff games. He is still largely inefficient. He still has to prove he can be a guy. The highlights are there, but the efficiency, especially consistency, is not."
For all the issues Banchero might have in the regular season, he does become a juggernaut in the Playoffs -- averaging 27.4 points per game in 19 playoff games, including 26.3 points per game in last year's playoff series, including a 45-point game in Game 5 and 38 points in Game 7.
Banchero is an unequivocal playoff riser.
But the question is about the fit and how Banchero helps his team win. That is how he and the league want to judge him.
The pressure of fit
The pressure on Paolo Banchero is not about his stats anymore.
Everyone recognizes he is a potential All-Star and should be an All-Star. He is a difficult player to defend with his size and power.
And even his critics will likely say the team is not optimized around him with its poor shooting.
The question remains about his impact. And this is where he gets the most comparisons to Franz Wagner.
He has received the brunt of the criticism for his poor on/off numbers -- the Magic were -0.2 points per 100 possessions with Banchero on the court last year and have never had a positive net rating with him on the floor -- and inefficient shot-making -- even though he had the highest field goal percentage of his career and highest true shooting percentage of his career.
DataBallr takes out the low-leverage minutes and has Banchero with a +0.2 net rating with him on the floor. There was some quiet progress last year, even in a down year.
Wagner has all the efficiency and on/off metrics the analytical people love -- +3.6 points per 100 possessions with Wagner on the floor last year. And Wagner and Banchero's long-term fit has always been a question -- a fairly meager +4.5 net rating (113.7/109.3 offensive/defensive rating) when they share the floor.
This is simply about the Magic netting results. And after three straight first-round exits, it feels like the Magic need to see some results from their star player.
"It does feel like a crossroads season for the Magic," Trey Kirby said on The Kevin O'Connor Show. "Last offseason, they decided to part ways with Jamahl Mosley. That just means the players are left for things that could change. It definitely feels like Paolo/Franz is the first thing to figure out since they both seem like players who can be the best player on a good team. Do they necessarily make each other better? We're not sure yet because injuries have been such a problem for both of these guys."
The pressure is indeed on. He seemed to understand that after the Game 7 loss when he challenged himself and his teammates ahead of the summer.
The Magic changed their coach. They laid the blame for their poor season on Jamahl Mosley. They swapped him for Sean Sweeney.
Sweeney will need to find a new context to maximize Banchero and get him to silence these criticisms. But that is also on Banchero to embrace that role and play in a way that leads to winning.
Fair or not, the pressure will be on Banchero to deliver for this team. All eyes are on him.
And it feels like it will be a season that decides his future with this team and where he stands in the league.
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