Paolo Banchero expects big things from himself.
He entered the league as the top overall pick with all the pressure and expectations that come with it. While he was not considered a generational prospect, he was more than enough to give a star-hungry Orlando Magic team hope.
His arrival, playing alongside the previous season's draft picks in Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs, ushered in a new era for the team. The Magic needed some time to find themselves in his rookie year, but they have been a playoff team since that 5-20 start to the 2023 season.
Initial success for a top pick brings criticism next. Especially if they do not seem to cash in on that potential.
And no one has faced more criticism it seems than Banchero on this Magic team.
Banchero has put up stellar individual counting stats. But everyone has wanted more from him.
More impactful advanced stats an clearer impacts on winning. And ultimately more winning.
Banchero is the type of player for whom wins are the only measure of success that he or anyone should care about. And the Magic have disappointed the last two seasons. There are many questions about Banchero.
This team's success ultimately relies on Banchero and his progress. If a team is only as good as its star player, the Magic need a big season from their star player.
And there are a lot of doubters right now, even if everyone acknowledges Banchero is a difficult player to defend.
This upcoming 2027 will be all about Banchero and how far he can take his team.
Questions rising
No one should doubt Paolo Banchero's ability to score and put up big numbers.
Even in a year everyone acknowledged was not up to his lofty standards, he averaged 22.2 points per game and a career-high 8.4 rebounds per game. He even answered some of his critics by shooting a career-best 45.9 percent from the floor and a career-best 56.6 percent true shooting percentage.
That was better than Cade Cunningham's 56.4 percent true shooting percentage, and he was universally praised for his 2026 season.
The difference has been about impact stats and whether all those counting stats actually impact winning.
While some context is warranted, the Magic have never had a positive net rating with Banchero on the floor. He settled at -0.2 points per 100 possessions last year, the second-best of his career trailing the 2024 All-Star and playoff breakthrough. Cunningham, for instance, was at +11.4 points per 100 possessions.
Their direct duel, where Cunningham won their scoring battle in Game 5 and then found his rhythm in the second half of Game 6 to help the Detroit Pistons extend that series, further put Banchero behind his peers.
This is the kind of stratosphere Banchero wants and should be in. It is the stratosphere of player Banchero needs to be in if the Magic are going to contend for more than first round bits.
It is why Banchero is getting put on lists like Bleacher Report's most overrated players, where he came in at No. 3.
The argument against Banchero is centered on his efficiency.
It is not that he does not score enough or does not have the profile of a future star. It is that he does not do it well enough to compete at the highest levels. There is still a lot of excess to trim off. He needs to produce more efficiently.
And that is where he and the Magic want him to get.
It is all about winning now
The only way for Paolo Banchero to change the narrative about himself and take the next step is very simple: The Orlando Magic need to win.
That is the thing the team has been unable to do. And fairly or not, that responsibility has fallen on Banchero. That is the star's burden.
Banchero on his own is clearly good enough to get the team into the Playoffs and to be a .500 team. The team went 26-25 with Franz Wagner out of the lineup for 47 of 51 games. Banchero was enough to keep the team afloat.
But the Magic want more. And it has been that way since they got a taste of success.
After the 47-win breakthrough to the 5-seed in 2024, the Magic have dealt with injuries depressing their potential. They won 41 games and lost in the first round as the 7-seed in 2025 and tallied 45 wins and lost in the first round as the 8-seed in 2026.
Losing a 3-1 series lead in the first round to the Detroit Pistons was a black mark on a star who wants to prove himself as one of the best in the league. The Magic certainly believed so when they gave him a Rose Rule max contract with all of the bells and whistles.
Banchero has shown hints he can be that player.
He has always stepped up his game in the Playoffs, averaging 27.0, 29.4 and 26.3 points per game in his three playoff series. He had 45 points in the Game 5 loss and 38 in the Game 7 defeat. It is hard to blame Banchero for losing that 3-1 series. lead.
After the All-Star Break, Banchero has stepped his game up too.
In 2025, as he recovered from an early season torn oblique, he averaged 29.0 points per game with a 58.3 percent true shooting percentage after the All-Star break. In 2026, he averaged 23.6 points per game with a 57.7 percent true shooting percentage.
He even had a +3.1 net rating after the All-Star Break in 2026 and +4.8 after the All-Star Break in 2025.
It is just about getting that for the majority of the season.
The only thing Banchero should care about at this point is trying to help his team win. That is what will lead to the accolades, and that is what will change his reputation.
Orlando has fully invested in him. This season and the team's hesitance to make any major moves is in part a belief that Banchero is preparing to take a leap.
A team goes only as far as its stars can take it. That is still a universal truth in the league -- even with the parity that has proliferated. And this season is about how far Banchero can take this team and whether he is the kind of star the Magic can build a championship team around.
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