The first change everyone will notice about Paolo Banchero this summer is that he changed his hair.
In workout videos that Banchero has posted and at his high school elite camp, it was easy to see that Banchero went back to the fade. He appears to have slimmed down some too.
But those are workout videos. Everyone looks good when you are the subject of a workout video.
And much of this offseason has been spent assessing and evaluating Banchero.
Banchero's counting numbers were OK -- 22.2 points per game with a career-high 8.4 rebounds per game and 45.9 percent shooting. But the Magic went just 26-25 in the 51 games Franz Wagner essentially missed. The Magic faltered in March after their seven-game win streak and were back in the Play-In.
Banchero is the kind of player who is ultimately judged on wins. In a season where the Magic leveraged themselves to win big in the short- and long-term, Banchero failed to deliver.
Banchero is not quite a lightning rod. But he is a player often mentioned for having stats that do not match his impact.
And there have been some calls asking whether the Magic would trade him to get in front of these issues.
The pressure is on this season. And Banchero is certainly seeking some redemption.
It is just that much of the league does not believe. Much of the national media does not believe. And that has led to some underrating of Banchero.
If anyone is poised for a big breakthrough season, it is Banchero. And people are starting to come around on that.
The analytics trap
Paolo Banchero can put up the counting stats. Even his critics will admit that he has shown up in the Playoffs. That is what is disappointing about his career so far.
Banchero's 45-point Game 5 and even 37-point Game 7 almost absolved him of some playoff blame -- ignore the 4-for-20 showing in Game 6 behind the curtain.
Often Banchero's critics point to his poor on/off numbers as a reason not to believe in him. He is not an efficient player for his high usage and the Magic have never had a positive net rating with him on the floor -- although DataBallr flips that -0.2 overall to +0.2 when removing low leverage minutes.
This has been a summer in which a lot of people around the league have talked about the analytical impact over raw counting stats. It was one of the central arguments the Boston Celtics made -- or at least analysts made -- for trading Jaylen Brown to the Philadelphia 76ers.
Banchero is at the center of this conversation.
Indeed, Michael Pina of The Ringer named Banchero first in his "Jaylen Brown All-Stars" -- players whose eye test does not match their analytics in a somewhat toxic way.
"At 23 years old, Banchero has mostly played on injury-depleted teams, in lineups that can’t space the floor, under a coach he didn’t vibe with," Pina wrote. "How can someone watch Game 5 of Orlando’s first-round series against the No. 1 seed Detroit Pistons and not see special qualities in the guy who needed 31 shots to score 45 points? Most of that series can be viewed as an instructive reminder of Banchero’s potential."
Pina notes that many compare Paolo Banchero directly to Cade Cunningham.
While Cunningham has the on/off numbers that suggest his positive impact. Banchero had a better true shooting percentage this year than Cunningham. And Cunningham also struggled early in his career.
Patience should be a virtue. Banchero is entering his age-24 season. There is still time for him to be the best version of himself.
He just has to go out and do it.
Primed for a breakthrough?
It does feel like a do-or-die season for the Orlando Magic, in general.
With a new coach now in Sean Sweeney, the Magic are hoping to see their best players in a new context. They certainly cannot have the same horrid injury luck, right?
They hope that leads to a rejuvenated Paolo Banchero.
It is not just the question of roster construction and spacing. Since tearing his oblique, Banchero has looked off to some degree. It has taken Banchero some time to get fully healthy and get up and running.
But he has moments and long stretches in critical games where he stands out. It is about finding more of those moments and maximizing him as a player.
Something everyone in the league is wondering whether he and the Magic can do.
"For him and the Magic to advance to the next level, he has to bottle more of the efficiency that defines those best nights which means probably taking fewer jump shots or getting better at shooting long 2s and 3s," Zach Lowe said on The Zach Lowe Show. "Because he takes too many of both and also getting more comfortable -- and th shooting is a part of this -- not playing the No. 1 option role all the time because you have anothe really good player in Franz Wagner. I think people are sleeping on teh Magic as a top-six team in the East next year."
In fairness to Banchero, he took fewer long 2s and 3s in the 2026 season than in 2025. There was just an overall efficiency bump he needs to take.
Banchero has proven he can make that leap. It is essential to the team's chances this season.
Orlando is looking to find the best version of Banchero more consistently.
In the five games before the oblique injury in 2025, Banchero averaged 29.0 points, 8.8 rebounds and 5.6 assists per game with a 55.2 percent effective field goal percentage. That included his first career 50-point game and three 30-point games.
After the All-Star break in the 2025 season, he averaged 29.0 points per game with a 58.3 percent true shooting percentage. The Magic had a +4.8 net rating with Banchero on the floor in that run.
Last year after the All-Star break, Banchero averaged 23.6 points per game with a 57.7 percent true shooting percentage. Orlando had a +3.1 net rating.
This showed what he and the Magic are capable of when Banchero is running at full steam. That is something the Magic have not seen in quite some time.
That will be one of the big statements Banchero needs to make this season.
But that kind of leap is clearly possible. Banchero has taken a lot of heat this offseason. But he is still a very capable player.
It is just putting all the pieces together. That is what the Magic are trying to do as a team too.
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