Skip to main content

Paolo Banchero holds the key to the Orlando Magic's next leap

The Orlando Magic are expecting to make a lot of improvements this offseason to try to get back into title contention. That task still centers on their stars and how they step forward.
The Orlando Magic's path to contention starts with their stars taking another leap. And that begins with Paolo Banchero putting doubts behind him.
The Orlando Magic's path to contention starts with their stars taking another leap. And that begins with Paolo Banchero putting doubts behind him. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Everyone is watching the conference finals right now and staring in awe.

Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals on Monday was a statement of introduction for Victor Wembanyama. Everyone thought he was the future of the league. Everyone learned he was the league's present with his stellar showing in the double overtime win, outplaying two-time defending MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals saw Jalen Brunson seemingly single-handedly twist the Cleveland Cavaliers' defense and erase a 22-point deficit in the fourth quarter. Everyone knew Brunson could take over games and make clutch plays. But this was still a wonder to watch.

Great teams win and get deep into the Playoffs. But it is also true that teams will still need individual brilliance at the highest levels to win a championship. These teams are where they are because they have the best players in the league.

There is a reason half the league will tank to get top picks in generational drafts. One player means a lot in the NBA. And that is why stars get all the attention and criticism every postseason.

The Playoffs are a personal statement for the very best players.

Even Orlando Magic president of basketball operations Jeff Weltman said it plainly after the season: The only thing that changes a franchise more than acquiring a star player is finding the right coach.

The star matters most.

That was a flashpoint all season. The Magic were playing without one of their stars, Franz Wagner, for most of the season. And their other star, Paolo Banchero, struggled to find his footing all season long.

Orlando still has championship ambitions. There are a lot of conversations about what moves the team needs to make to get out of the Play-In treadmill.

But the biggest move is still sitting in plain sight: The Magic need their stars. And they need their stars to be among the best to achieve those championship goals.

Wagner's injury and Banchero's stagnation were the biggest stories of this season for the Magic. A story that played out in agonizing frustration during their Playoff series with the Detroit Pistons.

That frustration is reflected in The Athletic's NBA Player Tiers from Law Murray. He kept Paolo Banchero in Tier 3B, citing Banchero's potential and frustrating level of play. He dropped Franz Wagner to Tier 3C from Tier 3A, citing his injury. Desmond Bane remained in Tier 3C, a seeming cap on his potential. Jalen Suggs was in Tier 4.

The reality is the Magic will go as far as their stars take them. And while the stars still have a long runway in front of them. The conference finals continue to show this is a star's league.

If the Magic want to be a competitor at the top of the Eastern Conference, they need their stars to take the next step. And that has the offseason focused on Banchero most of all.

Banchero's development is the key to the Magic's growth

Paolo Banchero is at the center of so many of the Orlando Magic's questions.

No one doubts his potential or what he is capable of doing. He has consistently and constantly upped his game during the Playoffs. Even in a frustrating season -- and a frustrating series -- he stepped up from 22.2 points per game to 26.3 points per game.

Still, there are a lot of frustrations within Banchero.

Banchero had a down year by his standards, averaging 22.2 points per game this season after averaging 25.9 in an injury-riddled season in 2025. Like the 2025 season, Banchero saved his best for the end of the season, averaging 23.6 points, 8.3 rebounds and 5.8 assists per game after the All-Star break.

Still, something always felt off about him all season. The whole picture never came together for him.

The analytics people will pick apart his efficiency. Despite shooting a career-best 45.9 percent from the floor and a 56.6 percent true shooting percentage, that was still seventh-worst among players who had a usage rate of 25 percent and 30 minutes per game.

The difference between him and the similar statistics of Cade Cunningham or Jaylen Brown is impact and winning.

The Magic had a -0.2 net rating (114.0/114.1) with Banchero on the floor during the regular season. He has never had a positive net rating in his career.

Those stats are perhaps overblown, but they can still be meaningful. The Magic do not win these minutes.

In the Playoffs, the Magic had a +3.9 net rating with Banchero on the floor through the first four games. Banchero can be the anchor for a Playoff team.

But the struggles all season centered on Banchero in the role by himself. The team went 26-25 with Wagner missing 47 of 51 games from Decmeber until April. The Magic often looked listless and disengaged. Banchero was unable to carry the team.

Reports of Banchero's demise are surely exaggerated. But he has gone two years without making the All-Star team (2024 because of injuries, 2025 because of frustrations). And the Magic's star has a lot of questions to answer entering his fifth season.

The Magic will go as far as their duo take them

It is the clear truth that the Orlando Magic will go as far as their star duo will take them.

One of the reasons the team is changing coaches is to find new ways to unlock those two players together.

The Magic did not get to see enough of their best players together the last two years. That was not Jamahl Mosley's fault.

But it was also clear that the team could not get the pieces to work perfectly together. The Magic had a +4.5 net rating with Banchero and Wagner on the floor together. Paolo Banchero was only better with Jalen Suggs on the floor (+6.9 points per 100 possessions).

In the Playoffs, the Magic had a +15.0 net rating (including a 94.8 defensive rating) with Banchero and Wagner on the floor together.

There is plenty of evidence that the Magic do not need to touch their main group. They need to give them the support and bench to survive when they are alone.

That is ultimately what will determine how far the Magic go. They need their stars to take the next step.

Everyone can see on the biggest stages that the stars shine. Banchero can still be that player. But the Magic will not reach that stage without him reaching it first.

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Loading recommendations... Please wait while we load personalized content recommendations