There is a debate that has been going on in the NBA for more than a decade now. It has had its flashpoints and bubbled up above the surface at various points, but it is the central debate in NBA circles at all times.
It is hoop-heads vs. the wave of analytics personnel who have taken over the thinking in many front offices. In a sociological sense, it is the nerds taking over the jocks in some way. And there is a lot of pushback against numbers defining the game.
The analytics debate has retaken center stage with the trade of Jaylen Brown to the Philadelphia 76ers.
"The league is overrun with strategy," an Eastern Conference scout told Brian Windhorst of ESPN. "Honestly, I'm not sure how many people who work in the league are actually watching the games."
That is probably overboard. Analytics people do watch games. A lot of them do play, albeit not always at an NBA level. You do not analyze the game if you do not love it to some degree.
But the debate about analytics is more public than ever. And it has become a scapegoat.
There is another scout who theorizes that the aprons have forced front offices to examine every dollar spent more carefully and big, max contracts like Brown's are tougher to work around. Another executive claimed the league will become like baseball, where analytics have taken some art out of the game.
This debate is familiar to Orlando Magic fans. It is the same conversation that many critics pin on Paolo Banchero.
Banchero has many of the same criticisms. His numbers and analytics never seem to match his raw stats or what the eye test says defenses treat him like. Let alone how Banchero has seemingly raised his game every postseason.
The eye test would say Banchero has the counting stats and the impact to be a superstar. The numbers, his critics would suggest, say he is an empty calorie high-usage player who is not making his teammates better.
While Magic fans are right to defend him against his harshest critics, those critics also make a point as the Magic have often struggled with Paolo Banchero as the lone star without Franz Wagner the past two seasons.
There is still a lot unwritten about Banchero and his career. He is 23 years old, after all. But this debate the league is having is very much about him.
He still has a lot to say. And there is still this puzzle to recognize and solve.
The on/off conundrum
One of the justifications for the Boston Celtics' trade was Jaylen Brown's poor on/off numbers.
Reducing his impact to the numbers when he was critical in several deep Playoff runs and when he won the 2024 Finals MVP seems unfair. Jaylen Brown was an All-NBA player with Jayson Tatum missing most of last season. Everyone agreed Brown put in a stellar season.
It is confusing why the Celtics traded him.
It feels like the analytics arguments are more about cover for Brown making the situation untenable after being upset about his inclusion in Giannis Antetokounmpo trade rumors.
Some of these numerical arguments seem to be justification after the fact.
Still despite Brown's stellar season, the Celtics went +6.5 points per 100 possessions with Brown on the floor last year, nearly two points per 100 possessions worse than their overall average.
Of course, there is context that is necessary. Brown was the star player and would often play against the other team's starters, pitting him against the best lineups on the other team.
That is often where Paolo Banchero finds himself. He would play with most of the Orlando Magic's other starters the past three years. That explains part of Banchero's depressed statisticall impact.
Still, in four seasons with the Magic, the team has never had a positive net rating with Banchero on the floor. It sat at -0.6 points per 100 possessions last year, with no notable deviations in offensive and defensive rating from the team's averages.
That changed in the Playoffs, to some degree. Banchero's ability to create and make tough shots is much more valuable. But there are still all of these questions about Banchero's actual impact on the team and their ability to win.
Statistically, players like Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs are the ones who superpower the lineups they are in. Banchero is the hub, but he is not the one making the engine go.
That is at least what the numbers suggest.
Searching for efficiency
Players like Jaylen Brown and Paolo Banchero rub the analytical crowd the wrong way because of their shot selection.
Brown is an elite mid-range shot maker. But those are not the shots that elicit high percentages or high efficiency, the kinds of things the analytics crowd hunt for.
Criticism for Banchero has often centered on the inefficiency of his shooting. But this year showed significant progress.
First, he took the fewest mid-range shots in his career. He shot a career-best 45.9 percent from the floor and a career-best 56.6 percent true shooting percentage, which takes into account free throws in addition to field goals).
Those numbers are good, but still lagging behind other high-usage players.
His field goal percentage was the 11th-worst among players who took at least 15 field goals per game and played at least 41 games. His true shooting percentage was the 10th-worst among players with a usage rate of at least 25 percent.
Paolo Banchero beat out players considered much better than him -- including Cade Cunningham in true shooting percentage. But even among his peers, Banchero does not rate well in terms of efficiency.
Banchero shot 66.9 percent on 5.8 attempts per game in the restricted area last season. That ranked eighth worst among players with at least 5.0 attempts per game (although notably better than Franz Wagner).
And that is at the crux of the analytical arguments against him.
Watching Banchero play, it is clear the impact he makes. Teams swarm him with double teams. And his physicality and ability to get to the foul line give the Magic some easy offense to turn to.
He still has ways to improve -- especially improving his 3-point shooting and tightening up his dribbling to be more efficient. Nobody should be giving up on him at this age.
But he now plays under the weight of a max contract. Orlando should demand results beyond counting stats.
Whether anyone likes it or not, analytics are part of the discussion and part of the argument. They are a part of the way front offices understand and measure their teams. It cannot be divorced from watching the games.
Clearly, Banchero and Brown have a lot of value beyond what their numbers can track.
But this debate is not going anywhere. And Banchero is indeed at the center of it.
Add us as a preferred source on Google