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Paolo Banchero's next leap may depend on this surprising shift

The most immediate challenge facing coach Sean Sweeney when he takes over the Orlando Magic is to figure out how to get the most out of Paolo Banchero offensively. The shocking answer might be less of him.
One of the big tasks ahead for Sean Sweeney and the Orlando Magic will be getting more out of Paolo Banchero. He has shown what he is capable of, but the team needs to find a new way to unlock it.
One of the big tasks ahead for Sean Sweeney and the Orlando Magic will be getting more out of Paolo Banchero. He has shown what he is capable of, but the team needs to find a new way to unlock it. | Paul Rutherford-Imagn Images

Orlando sports fans are used to seeing a star player's brilliance go unrewarded.

That was the Tracy McGrady era in the early 2000s. That is what Barbara Banda is doing right now with the Orlando Pride, two years removed from their NWSL title and going through a frustrating run of play (that ended with a 3-1 home win Friday night).

Paolo Banchero is not quite at the level of dominance as those players. Even though he has his moments.

Each playoff series, though, has ultimately devolved into Banchero seemingly having to go at it alone. His dual 38-point performances in his two Game 7 appearances felt pyrrhic as no other player seemed able to come along with him.

In the past two seasons, especially, Banchero has had to beat allegations that his team plays better without him. A constant criticism of Banchero is that the Magic have never had a positive net rating with Banchero on the floor -- the closest was -0.1 in 2024 and -0.2 this season.

There is another layer that he needs to get to one way or the other. The Magic certainly hope a new coach and some new ideas can get him there.

The key to any of this working is Banchero embracing change and embracing a new coach. While Sean Sweeney will surely try to play to some of Paolo Banchero's perceived strengths and find him in his favorite spots, Banchero also needs to embrace some different usage offensively, too.

Ultimately, the Magic's path forward depends on how their players improve. And that always starts with the stars.

For the Magic to get more from Banchero, it will start with changing how the Magic use Banchero to begin with. And that might actually mean something scary: Less of him.

Banchero's touches

It is an easy narrative to say that much of Paolo Banchero's shooting and efficiency struggles come from him having to bail out the offense or taking "grenades" late in the shot clock. The team's poor spacing also condenses his space.

That is not quite the story. But Banchero ends up getting the ball in difficult spots.

Banchero averaged 16.0 field goal attempts per game last year, the fewest since his rookie year. According to data from NBA.com, only 1.0 of those attempts per game came with the closest defender 0-2 feet away, and 8.0 attempts per game of those came with the closest defender 2-4 feet away.

He shot 51.0 percent on those 2-4 feet away attempts and 47.2 percent on those 0-2 feet away attempts.

Banchero takes a lot of shots with the defense right on him. And he is ultimately a tough shot maker.

That is not unusual for star players. Sixty-five players averaged at least 1.0 field goal attempt per game with the closest defender 0-2 feet away. Paolo Banchero shot better than Stephen Curry and Jamal Murray on those kinds of shots on the same attempts.

Banchero's field goal percentage equaled Kevin Durant on those 2-4 feet away shots.

This all speaks to how close Banchero is to breaking through. He can do all the superstar things the Magic drafted him to do.

Banchero actually surprisingly struggled with his open shots, shooting 39.1 percent on 4.9 attempts per game with the closest defender 4-6 feet away, including 25.4 percent on 1.7 3-point attempts per game. He shot 41.6 percent on 2.1 attempts per game with the closest defender 6-plus feet away, including 36.4 percent on 1.8 3-point attempts per game.

No player, even a star, can survive only taking contested shots. In the Playoffs, Banchero shot 45.0 percent on 8.6 attempts per game with the closest defender 2-4 feet away and 23.1 percent on 1.9 attempts per game with the closest defender 0-2 feet away.

A lot of this depends on Banchero improving his efficiency and making more shots. But the Magic need to make those shots easier.

Banchero by far led the Magic in touches per game with 76.4 touches per game, according to data from Second Spectrum. In the playoffs, it went up to 89.3 touches per game. Banchero took 24.5 percent of the Magic's total field goals in the Playoffs.

That is a heavy usage that is hard for any player to sustain effectively. The Magic believe in what Banchero can do and he can do a lot.

But there might be an argument that less is more for Banchero.

Less is more

There were a lot of complaints about Jamahl Mosley's offense. But among them was that it relied too much on individual decisionmaking. It devolved into isolations a lot of the times and those are always inefficient.

Paolo Banchero was 13th in the league with 3.8 isolation possessions per game, according to data from Synergy. He scored 0.87 points per possession on those plays, the fourth-worst among players with at least three isolation possessions per game.

That is a signal that the Magic were not putting Banchero in the best positions.

Banchero can be better. In the 2025 season, he scored 0.97 points per possession on 5.0 isolation possessions per game. In the Playoffs, he was second in the league with 7.1 isolation possessions per game and 0.78 points per possession.

The game slowing down and being simply all about Banchero's individual play is part of what is holding him back. The Magic need a better offensive plan to get him the ball in advantageous positions.

One of the arguments against Paolo Banchero remains the Magic's better play when he is out of the lineup and Franz Wagner is the anchor. That too can be instructive.

The Magic averaged 8.1 isolation possessions per game, scoring 81.6 points per 100 possessions afer Franz Wagner's December injury. From November 13 through Dec. 6 (before Wagner's injury), the Magic averaged only 7.2 isolation possessions per game. That drop off is not insignificant.

It still feels like the Magic's issue remains improving on the margins and getting improved and more efficient scoring from Banchero. It is about putting him in better spots to score and avoiding the "star-making" shots.

The Magic do not need to change Banchero. They will still need games where he wins in isolation and hits those tough shots reserved only before stars. That will make a huge difference in the Playoffs.

But a big key for the Magic remains finding a way to get Banchero easier shots.

And that will take a certain amount of trust and faith from Banchero. It will be the biggest development for this season.

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