The Orlando Magic were not expected to do anything monumental this offseason.
As the free agency dust has settled, the biggest addition to the team was Nikola Vucevic on a minimum contract.
That should be considered a win at the minimum salary. But it is not exactly moving the needle significantly.
Not for a team that had a disappointing 45-37 record and finished as the 8-seed in the Eastern Conference. Not for a team that is flirting with the second apron despite back-to-back Play-In Tournament appearances.
Those kinds of frustrations usually lead to a team making some major changes. It usually leads to a team trying to make a splash or reconfigure the roster. It leads to something bigger than a backup center.
If there is frustration this offseason, it is the lack of urgency from the Magic's front office.
The Magic's biggest acquisition is not going to come from the outside, then. It never was. Orlando was betting on something else being injected into their roster to get them over the top.
They are betting instead on the return of Franz Wagner as their biggest addition.
Whether this is the right bet or not is certainly up for debate. But the Magic felt like they left a lot on the table last season. They could clearly see in their Playoff series with the Detroit Pistons the kind of impact that Wagner could make and how his presence elevates the team.
Will Wagner be enough then to get the Magic over the top? Will simply being healthy lead the Magic where they want to go?
That is what the team is hoping to find out. And Wagner's return is key to making all of that happen.
Franz Wagner's impact is clear
The central thesis to the Orlando Magic's offseason is the belief that they have one of the best starting lineups in the league. The numbers sort of back that up -- the team's healthy starting lineup had the ninth-best net rating among lineups that played at least 150 minutes.
The Orlando Magic seemingly firmly believe that if Franz Wagner had not gotten hurt in the Playoffs, they would have closed out the Detroit Pistons and, at least, threatened the Cleveland Cavaliers in the second round.
Indeed, the Magic had a +6.8 net rating (104.8 offensive rating/98.0 defensive rating) with Wagner on the floor in the Playoffs. That was the best on the team even through four games in that series (everyone who had a positive net rating lost that in the final three games in the series).
Wagner was clearly running nowhere near full capacity when he returned from the high ankle sprain in April and throughout the Playoffs. But his defensive versatility and the threat of his driving opened up so much for the team.
In the regular season, Wagner averaged 20.6 points per game on 48.1 percent shooting and 34.5 percent shooting from three. The raw scoring number is certainly lower than his previous season and what the team expected.
The team had a +3.6 net rating (114.2/110.6 offensive/defensive rating split), trailing only Jalen Suggs among regular rotation players in terms of on/off impact.
But before his injury on Dec. 7, Wagner was averaging 23.4 points per game and shooting 48.7 percent from the floor and 35.4 percent from three. That had him on track to make the All-Star team for the first time, his injury robbing him of that honor for the second straight year.
The Magic were rolling before he missed 47 of 51 games with a high ankle sprain. The Magic struggled to find consistency.
It is just clear that Wagner, with his defensive versatility as much as his threat to get to the basket, unlocks so much of this team.
Last year, the Magic were +1.9 points per 100 possessions with Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero on the floor together and just -0.2 points per 100 possessions with Banchero alone, according to DataBallr.
The team was +2.1 points per 100 possessions with Desmond Bane and Franz Wagner together and +0.9 points per 100 possessions with Bane alone. The team was +9.2 points per 100 possessions with Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs together and +4.1 with just Suggs on the floor. The Magic were +5.8 points per 100 possessions with Franz Wagner and Anthony Black on the floor together and -1.3 with Black alone.
Many of these numbers are skewed by how long a period Wagner missed and how inconsistent the Magic were without him. But it still highlights how much indication there is that Wagner makes everything easier for everyone. Even just as a threat.
Orlando saw Wagner at his best so rarely last season, it is no wonder the team failed to meet expectations. Wagner's impact was abundantly clear.
A safe bet?
The frustrating thing then is that the Orlando Magic have seen Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero, let alone their healthy roster, together for so little time.
With back-to-back seasons facing prolonged absences with the torn oblique in 2025 and the high ankle sprain in 2026, Wagner has slowly started to get a reputation as a bit injury-prone.
This is even though he played 79, 80 and 72 games in his first three seasons, often playing through minor injuries and coming off longer summers playing for the German national team.
The Magic's inconsistency during the last two seasons has the trade sharks circling. Everyone wants to debate the Banchero and Wagner partnership. The Magic clearly are not ready to make conclusions as they both begin their max contracts.
Still, the team had a 4-2 record in the six games the Magic's preferred starting lineup played together in the 2025 season. They had a 10-9 record in the 19 games they played together in the 2026 season. A 14-11 record is still on pace for 46 wins.
It certainly feels like the Magic have plenty left on the table and plenty more to grow -- even if there are imperfections and rough edges to sand through.
Any team that loses one of its star players for a significant time will struggle. That was inevitably what happened last year.
This year, the Magic are hoping better health luck will give them their starts and starters together longer. And they believe that will lift them further in the Playoffs and closer to their potential.
The answer to the biggest change for the Magic will be the addition of a healthy Franz Wagner.
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