The Orlando Magic are disappointed after exiting their season with a third straight first-round exit.
This came a season after they made their all-in move to acquire Desmond Bane and amid an offseason of extreme expectations. The team losing a 3-1 series lead despite all the disappointment in the regular season did not ease any tension.
Orlando simultaneously feels like it is a healthy roster away from competing at the top of the Eastern Conference -- this team did make the NBA Cup semifinals, after all -- but also one that has some significant flaws it must address and can no longer paper over.
The Magic will do all this with a tightening salary cap situation and little room to make significant moves without disrupting the apple cart. And they are looking for a new coach to give a new perspective.
After the Magic's playoff series ended, there was an air that some of those major changes could come. It was easy to infer from several players in the locker room that they were not sure they would return next season.
Fans have discussed the possibility of trading Jalen Suggs, particularly after his frustrating Playoff showing. That has been something fans have speculated about all season, particularly with Anthony Black's extension on the horizon this offseason.
This is not and should not be an either/or decision. The Magic can keep both for a little bit, at least.
The conventional wisdom is to move on from Suggs to give the younger Black a chance to start.
But that is not where Matt Moore of Locked on NBA would go. And it brings a different question to the front as the Magic's offseason begins.
"Suggs, there is real talk about him being moved because there is talk about them wanting to move Anthony Black into the starting unit," Matt Moore said on Locked on NBA on Thursday. "I don't agree. I would actually sell high on Black is what I would do rather than move Suggs. That's how important I think Suggs is to that team."
That is what is so agonizing about the decision ahead of the Magic, whenever it might come. Suggs is incredibly vital to the team and its success despite his struggles in the Playoffs. But the Magic are unlikely to pay everybody for very long.
Is this the time to make that call?
Jalen Suggs' importance
Jalen Suggs is under the most fire this offseason after his struggles in the Playoffs.
Suggs averaged only 11.1 points per game and 24.1 percent shooting from three. He had 4.1 assists per game against 3.0 turnovers per game.
That was a bad final impression heading into such a critical offseason, when the Magic have very few resources available to improve their team outside of trades.
It also hides one of Suggs' best seasons in his short career. He averaged 13.8 points per game and a career-high 5.5 assists per game. He shot 33.9 percent from three, but 36.5 percent on catch-and-shoot threes.
Suggs continued to have his ups and downs, especially after dealing with a hip injury and an MCL sprain in December and January. Injuries have been a defining characteristic of his career as a whole.
But his impact and his defense are undeniable.
The Magic had a +5.2 net rating with Suggs on the floor, the best mark for all rotation players in the regular season. That included a 108.4 defensive rating, nearly five points per 100 possessions better than the team's overall average and a mark that trailed only Jonathan Isaac among rotation players.
It was a rough postseason for Suggs. But his impact and importance are undeniable.
It is not just the statistics. Everyone knows the emotion Suggs brings to the team.
The NBA is a business, and the Magic must consider everything. But the team cannot just rip its heart out without careful consideration.
The Anthony Black question
The Orlando Magic's biggest dilemma is whether to continue investing in their young draft picks or move on from a player like Jalen Suggs and clear the path for others.
That Anthony Black is in an extension summer -- and seems set to get a new contract, whether it happens this year or next summer -- has brought the question to the front.
Black undoubtedly had an impressive breakout season. He averaged 15.0 points per game and looked like a much more confident scorer. He was vital to the team's survival and staying around .500 in December and January when Franz Wagner was out with an injury, and Paolo Banchero was returning from his groin injury.
That might explain some of his less-than-stellar on/off numbers -- the Magic were only +0.2 points per 100 possessions with Black on the floor this season. His inconsistent postseason is likely explained by his recovery from an abdominal strain he suffered in early March.
But comparing the Magic with Suggs and the Magic with Black notices a stark difference.
The Magic's starting lineup with Suggs was one of the best lineups in the league -- +11.6 net rating (117.3 offensive rating/105.7 defensive rating) in 182 minutes and 19 games. The lineup with Black was only -4.7 points per 100 possessions (110.1 offensive rating/114.8 defensive rating) in 115 minutes and 15 games.
The quartet of Black, Wagner, Banchero and Bane with Suggs off the floor had a -8.7 net rating in 136 minutes. That quartet with Suggs on and Black off had a +10.5 net rating in 190 minutes, according to Databallr.
Maybe the Magic did not go with that lineup enough or too many of their minutes came later in the season when everyone was recovering from injuries. It is hard to know.
But that is a big difference. And saying Black is ready to step into the starting lineup could be a step too far based on the numbers.
The Magic must consider this and be careful if they are planning to make a mjor move. Maybe Black is not quite ready. Or maybe Suggs is a better fit. And that could push Black onto the trade market too (although his $10 million would net potentially less impact than Suggs' $35 million).
That does not mean another summer of development would not change things. Black can still get a lot better, and he took a significant step this offseason. And this question will hover over the team because of the cap considerations.
But Suggs is still vitally important. And conventional wisdom that this is the time to trade him needs to take some careful thinking.
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