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- Season Series: Nuggets 126, Magic 115 in Denver on Dec. 18; Tonight in Orlando
Orlando Magic vs. Denver Nuggets: Stats and 3 Keys to Watch
Denver | Orlando | |
|---|---|---|
100.5 | Pace | 101.1 |
123.9 | Off. Rtg. | 114.6 |
115.4 | Def. Rtg. | 113.1 |
59.3 | eFG% | 53.0 |
30.0 | O.Reb.% | 32.4 |
13.2 | TO% | 14.0 |
28.5 | FTR | 32.1 |
1. Defensive slipping
The Orlando Magic are doing some soul-searching right now. The team has really struggled to play consistently since coming home from the NBA Cup in Las Vegas -- and playing without Jalen Suggs, who injured his hip in that game.
The Orlando Magic survived a pair of late rallies from the Utah Jazz and Portland Trail Blazers to come out with their only two wins in the last five games. It has not been clean for them, and they have not been able to put all the pieces together.
The biggest concern remains the team's defense.
Orlando has a 118.6 defensive rating in the five games since returning from Vegas. The Magic overall have given up 120.0 points per 100 possessions or more in four of the last six games. Before the loss to the New York Knicks in the NBA Cup semifinal, the Orlando Magic had not given up more than 120.0 points per 100 possessions since the Nov. 23 loss to the Boston Celtics, and that was with a good chunk of the roster out with injury.
Worse still, the Magic have eight games this year where they gave up 120.0 points per 100 possessions. They had eight all of last year.
Orlando must find its defensive center once again, especially going against the best offense in the league.
2. Paolo vs. the Nuggets
It is both too much and not enough that every game at this point has become a referendum on Paolo Banchero. As Banchero has worked his way back from his early-season groin injury, playing most of these games without Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs, it has been clear that the Orlando Magic are not getting what they need from their supposed star.
Banchero is averaging 18.1 points per game, 7.8 rebounds per game and 4.7 assists per game in the nine games since returning from the groin injury. He is shooting 39.1 percent from the floor and 20.6 percent from three.
It has been discouraging as Banchero has looked noticeably sluggish and is not driving or attacking with the same force and fervor. Certainly not the same as someone who has spent the first three years of his career dominating opponents and physically punishing mismatches.
Banchero needs a spark somewhere. Maybe he can get it from playing the Denver Nuggets.
Banchero had his best game since returning from injury against the Nuggets last week, pouring in a triple-double of 26 points, 16 rebounds and 10 assists. He still shot only 9 for 21 in the game. There is still something to be desired.
3. 3-point luck
The Orlando Magic have been one of the best teams at defending the 3-point line all season. Their main goal is to limit 3-point attempts, blunting any 3-point luck and teams' ability to make a ton of threes against them, especially since the Magic do not take many threes themselves.
Orlando gives up a league-low 32.5 3-point attempts per game. Teams make 11.8 3-pointers per game against the Magic's defense, the second-fewest in the league. So even though opponents shoot 36.2 percent from three against them, the impact is not as heavy.
That is what made Friday's loss to the Charlotte Hornets so confusing. The Hornets made 19 of 39 (48.7 percent) from three in the game. The 39 3-point attempts was the most since the Utah Jazz got up 42 in the overtime win last week.
In fact, the Magic have given up 35 or more 3-point attempts in four of the last five games. They have given up 35 3-point attempts in just 15 of their 31 games played so far.
Denver is not a high-volume team. The Nuggets shoot only 34.9 3-point attempts per game. They just make all of them at a league-leading 40.8 percent from deep. Orlando's struggles defending the 3-point line recently will come to a head against this Nuggets team.
Orlando cannot concede from deep with how much this team still struggles to hit from the outside.
Orlando Magic vs. Denver Nuggets: Injury Report & Projected Lineups
Denver Nuggets Injury Report
- Aaron Gordon - OUT (Right Hamstring Strain)
- Christian Braun - OUT (Left Ankle Sprain)
- Cameron Johnson - OUT (Right Knee Injury Management)
- Tamar Bates - OUT (Left Foot Surgery)
Orlando Magic Injury Report
- Franz Wagner - OUT (Left High Ankle Sprain)
- Jalen Suggs - DOUBTFUL (Left Hip Contusion)
- Moe Wagner - OUT (Left Knee Injury Management)
- Goga Bitadze - QUESTIONABLE (Left Knee Strain)
- Colin Castleton - OUT (G-League Two-Way)
Projected Starting Lineups
Denver | Orlando | |
|---|---|---|
Jamal Murray | PG | Tyus Jones |
Tim Hardaway Jr. | SG | Desmond Bane |
Peyton Watson | SF | Anthony Black |
Spencer Jones | PF | Paolo Banchero |
Nikola Jokic | C | Wendell Carter |
Orlando Magic vs. Denver Nuggets: Prediction
Our Record: 19-12/14-17 ATS
There could probably not be a worse opponent for the Orlando Magic to face in the defensive state they are in than the Denver Nuggets. And that is even acknowledging all the players they are missing. This is still a potent and dangerous offensive team that will punish defensive weakness.
And the Magic right now are all defensive weakness.
There are plenty of things to complain about and be concerned with the Magic. But they all pale in comparison with the team's slip defensively. Defense is the team's identity. And without that, the Magic are a shell of themselves.
The Magic typically respond well after they get challenged and have these dismal performances.
After those back-to-back losses to the Philadelphia 76ers and Detroit Pistons, they pummeled the Charlotte Hornets on the second night of a back-to-back. They followed the blowout loss to the Atlanta Hawks with an inspired effort against the Boston Celtics. They followed their worst defensive effort against the Boston Celtics with a 40-point runaway win against the Philadelphia 76ers.
The team needs a similar response. This opponent -- and Nikola Jokic -- just are not really the opponent to figure out your defense against. Maybe some focus and attention to detail against a good opponent is what this team needs.