Everyone is anticipating a busy summer in the NBA.
Already, there are rumors flying about several stars moving, including Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant. That is on top of the usual suspects -- LaMelo Ball and Trae Young, for example.
A new class of team has entered the conversation for potential movement -- the dreaded second apron teams.
The league's relatively new collective bargaining agreement, created a whole set of new rules meant to rein in spending, is starting to feel its biggest effects this summer. Teams that spent wildly, unsure of what the new rules meant, are now paying the consequences.
It could lead to some surprising decisions.
The question for an up-and-coming team like the Orlando Magic is whether this is the time to strike. With a wide-open Eastern Conference thanks to injuries and uncertainty from top players on the best teams and the financial constraints many of the contenders are facing, it feels like the conference is as open as ever.
The Magic have one more chance before they face their own tight financial restrictions to make a big move and try to think big. And if the rumors are heading in the right direction, they might have that opportunity this offseason.
The Cleveland Cavaliers are one of the many teams dealing with the financial limitations of the second apron. They are coming off a 64-win season that ended in the second round.
Instead of doubling down to try to improve and get further in the Playoffs or bringing back the same roster to try again, the Cavs will become a second apron team with Evan Mobley's max extension kicking in -- it became a supermax when Mobley won Defensive Player of the Year.
It has the Cavs perhaps looking at other avenues to improve and get their payroll under control. It is why Chris Fedor of Cleveland.com surmises that only Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley are truly untouchable this offseason. It is why he is willing to entertain trades for Darius Garland and Jarrett Allen.
And Fedor thinks chasing Magic guard Jalen Suggs is the right move for the Cavs.
"Orlando is a team that is desperate for a point guard," Fedor said on the Wine and Gold Talk Podcast. "Everybody knows that. They need scoring, they need shooting, they need playmaking, they need shot creation. They can't have Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner so responsible for thir offense. How can you create easier offense and easier shots for your better players. Enter Darius Garland. Enter Trae Young. They will probably be in those conversations."
The perfect point guard?
The Orlando Magic have been connected to every point guard under the sun. Whether it is Trae Young, LaMelo Ball, Anfernee Simons or Darius Garland. This is not the first time this offseason someone has suggested Garland as the target the Magic should pursue.
Garland is coming off a strong season where he averaged 20.6 points per game and 6.7 assists per game. He shot 40.1 percent from three (he is a career 38.8 percent shooter). Garland also appeared in a career-high 75 games, the first time in his career he cleared 70 games in a season.
Garland would undoubtedly help the Magic. He is the kind of point guard the Magic would hunt who can fit into a defensive scheme and score off the dribble and as a spot-up option.
Garland is set to make $39.4 million next season and his salary will increase for two additional years. He would be quite expensive and it is easy to see why he might be the player the Cavs have to give up to get under the second apron.
The Magic themselves are just under the first apron next season, but will likely exceed the apron when they make trades this offseason. Taking on any additional money will cost the Magic a ton of money and come with those financial restrictions -- the biggest decision in this case is an $11 million team option on Moe Wagner's contract, the Magic can still re-sign him using Bird Rights.
It is why it is hard to see the Magic and Cavs executing a deal for Garland.
Making the math work
Certainly the only way it would work would be for the Orlando Magic to trade Jalen Suggs to make it work -- his salary bumps up to $35 million in the first year of his front-loaded extension.
But even that would not be legal under the rules because as a first apron team, the Magic cannot take back more money than they send out and the Magic do not have a salary that would preven that -- it would take three teams to work or would need to be completed before July 1 when contracts flip over to next season.
Second-apron teams cannot take back more money, cannot aggregate players (trade two players for one) and are limited in free agency to signing minimum contracts. It is a big reason why the Cleveland Cavaliers are not expected to be able to retain Ty Jerome.
A trade for Darius Garland would make the Magic a second-apron team and limit what they can do for the rest of the offseason.
A trade between the two teams would be extremely complicated, to say the least.
Fedor notes that there is a framework for a Garland-for-Suggs deal. It gets complicated because of all these salary cap considerations. It makes it difficult to foresee a deal going down.
For now, it does not seem likely the Magic would trade Suggs. Jeff Weltman has promised to be aggressive this offseason but he is still committed to some form of continuity. And the Magic saw Jalen Suggs, Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner together for 97 total minutes last season.
That does not mean the Magic will stand still. They are likely to add another starter-level impact player this offseason. But it should not cost them their core players.
Still, with how wide open the Eastern Conference appears to be, maybe the Magic need to be more aggressive with their offseason. Recognizing they are about to enter the apron territory, maybe they need to dive headfirst and treat this upcoming season as a season to make major progress up the standings.
Maybe this is the time to strike and stake a spot at the Eastern Conference.
Nobody is thinking small this offseason. But perhaps, the Magic should be thinking bigger than everyone expects.