The evolution of Germany's basketball program is undoubtedly one of the best stories in international basketball during the last five years.
A program that was solid with one or two elite-level players but struggled to win on the international stage -- even with Dirk Nowitzki, who won only two medals in his illustrious career (a bronze in the 2002 World Championship and a bronze in the 2005 EuroBasket). Germany was a sleeping giant waiting for something to help the team break through -- even for attention among Germany's basketball fans.
This is still an emerging sport.
Franz Wagner's arrival on the German national team has transformed everything. Wagner has appeared in three tournaments with his national team. He won bronze in the 2022 EuroBasket, a breakthrough gold medal at the 2023 FIBA World Cup and a disappointing fourth place in the 2024 Paris Olympics.
Wagner has helped transform Germany into a team that expects a medal in every tournament it enters. It is one of the powerhouses in the FIBA scene.
And as EuroBasket gets set to begin Wednesday -- for Germany against Montenegro in Finland on Wednesday morning (9:30 a.m. Eastern Time) -- Germany is expected to medal once again.
At the end, that is all a player like Wagner will care about. After losing to Serbia in the bronze medal game at the Olympics, Germany is trying to grab some measure of redemption.
Serbia and Germany are considered the two heavy favorites to win the tournament, given how much more balanced and deep their teams are. But this will be a tight tournament.
Wagner has a lot to sort out, too. His duties to the national team come first, and the priority is to win. But he also has to prepare for the start of a critical season for his club team, the Orlando Magic.
With just two weeks between the Sept. 14 gold medal game, how Wagner is playing in EuroBasket will roll right into this critical season for the Magic.
So what would make a successful EuroBasket for Wagner?
There is a lot to gain from this tournament for Wagner, especially.
All eyes on the 3-point shot
It is easy to say what the Orlando Magic and Magic fans want to see from Franz Wagner.
Even during his exhibition run, Wagner failed to alleviate concerns about his wayward outside shooting. In all, Wagner shot only 4 for 26 on his 3-pointers in Germany's six exhibition games. That is just 15.4 percent.
It is a small sample. And it is worth noting that Wagner is on the ball a lot.
Many of his 3-point attempts were low-percentage shots he set up off the dribble or as step-backs. Wagner had only two or three pure catch-and-shoot opportunities (not that he made those). And one of those four makes saw him pump fake a defender and hit a leaning three, probably the toughest shot he took in that exhibition run.
But it remains a major concern. Wagner was a volume shooter for the Magic last year and shot only 29.5 percent from three last year, his second season shooting worse than 30 percent from three. Wagner clearly wants his 3-point shot to be a part of his game. But the Magic may not need the same volume from Wagner, allowing him to focus on other parts of his game.
While there are some slight differences in 3-point shooting in FIBA play -- the 3-point line is closer and they use a synthetic ball rather than a leather one -- Wagner's shooting in these FIBA tournaments previews his shooting in the NBA.
During the 2022 EuroBasket, Wagner shot 46.3 percent from deep and followed it up with 36.1 percent hsooting in the NBA season. At the Olympics last summer, Wagner shot only 20 percent from three.
Everyone will still watch Wagner's 3-point shot and obsess over his form and his shooting. But that should not be the only focus. The bigger thing is the confidence Wagner has to score at all three levels.
Confidence at all three levels
Germany will put the ball in Franz Wagner's hands a lot throughout the tournament. He and Dennis Schroder will control everything. So Wagner's real skill on display will be his confidence to be a lead ball-handler and main creator.
The Magic certainly saw a lot of that throughout his season last year. But the trick will remain, how Wagner handles the attention and solves his way through complex defenses.
Wagner has shown more than capable of doing that. Despite his poor 3-point shooting, he is getting to the line a lot more and still finishing at the rim with the consistency everyone expects of him.
Wagner is displaying new skills, too. Germany is experimenting with using him as a roller in pick-and-rolls or rolling him into post-ups. He has shown good footwork on the block with this developing skill.
Wagner is going to be on the ball a lot and making a lot of these decisions. A big part of his development is knowing how to take over games and where to find his shots. He is going to get a lot of practice at that throughout the tournament.
Finishing in the big moments
What will make EuroBasket compelling basketball is how close the teams are. Every game should be pretty competitive even if Serbia and Germany are the heavy favorites.
It only takes one bad game at the wrong time to derail a tournament run.
Franz Wagner has had his share of clutch moments -- his close to Game 3 in the Playoffs delivered the Orlando Magic their lone playoff win. And he will not be alone with Dennis Schroder able to carry that load too.
But inevitably in this tournament, there will be a game that comes down to one play. And Wagner has to make that play.
The big thing for Wagner coming out of this tournament is purely confidence. The confidence that comes from winning, leading a team to a medal and confidence in his own skills.
That is a big part of what Wagner will get out of this tournament. Even with his poor shooting, seeing him shoot confidently is the first step in rebuilding that ability.
Wagner has come back from his international play each time more confident and ready for the NBA season. There is no reason to think that will not be the case this time either with so much on Wagner's shoulders.
This is a big chance once again for Wagner to succeed on the court and move into the Magic's season.