Franz Wagner is not quieting the biggest doubts about him

Franz Wagner continues to put up impressive scoring numbers as Germany prepares for Eurobasket. But he is not silencing doubts about his spotty shooting.
Franz Wagner continues to put up strong numbers to lead Germany in wins in their Eurobasket prep. But his shot is still lagging behind.
Franz Wagner continues to put up strong numbers to lead Germany in wins in their Eurobasket prep. But his shot is still lagging behind. | Christina Pahnke - sampics/GettyImages

Franz Wagner had a clear picture of what he needed to work on this offseason.

If he did not have it before, it was on full display in Friday's game against Turkiye. Their size was overpowering against Germany, playing without two key centers this tournament. They struggled to contain Alperen Sengun -- and Nikola Jokic and Serbia await in Saturday's final for this mini-tournament.

Nobody was quite focused on Wagner's battle on the interior or his ability to post up. He had two critical plays that showed he still has work to do -- having the ball stolen from him as he tried to post up Shane Larkin at the foul line, but then sealing him off and drawing a foul that gave Germany some breathing room.

So many pieces of Wagner's game are already put together. That is on display, too. He can creatively cut to the basket, attack the open floor and work his way around defenders to finish at the rim.

There are still a lot of other pieces to put together. Sengun outmaneuvered him to tip a rebound to a teammate with the game on the line. But that teammate missed the tip-in to give Germany a 73-71 win.

But Wagner turned in a typically solid performance with 17 points. He shot 6 for 15 from the floor overall. Three of those misses still catch everyone's eyes.

Wagner went 0 for 3 from three once again, bringing him to 1 for 9 with eight straight misses from deep during Germany's exhibition run.

Everyone knows Wagner will find a way to pour in points. He is enough of a shooting threat still to demand hard close outs and he will take advantage of those and attack gaps to the basket. He can increasingly shoot over crowds with flip shots and a more dependable turnaround jumper.

But the shooting remains a big sticking point.

If Wagner is going to take the next step and help lift the Orlando Magic, it is going to take improved three-point shooting. Is it time to start worrying?

Remade and still working on it

Franz Wagner's downturn in his three-point shooting is still something of a mystery.

He returned from his torn oblique with a seeming hitch in his shot. He made only 27.5 percent from three after returning from his injury and 7 for 37 (18.9 percent) during the Orlando Magic's playoff series.

Wagner was still taking 5.5 3-pointers per game after his injury -- and went 3 for 13 in Game 3 of the Playoffs. If Wagner is going to shoot at this volume, he has to make better than 30 percent, at least. And even that does not feel like a big ask.

The fact that Wagner started his career off so well and then fell below 30 percent from three in each of the past two seasons only added to the confusion of this regression.

Wagner needed to get back to the lab and work on his shot. Eurobasket and these tournament games would be a chance to see that work in progress.

It was always going to be a work in progress. Wagner would not suddenly become an ace 3-point shooter. But there needed to be some sense of progress.

Visually, the hitch that troubled so many throughout the second half of last season is gone. Wagner's motion looks more fluid and consistent. That should lead him to make more shots.

There is something to work with. It just has not shown up in the games quite yet.

Shots like the one in the fourth slide of the recent post on Germany's Instagram account have been few and far between. Wagner has had the ball in his hands a lot, and most of his threes in the games have looked like the one where he had to do a step-back move or shake off the defense.

A lot of his shots have been heavily contested. He has had few catch-and-shoot opportunities with how much on-ball responsibility he has had in the early going of Germany's games.

Then again, Wagner shot just 29.3 percent on catch-and-shoot 3-pointers last season and 28.1 percent after his injury. There is no guarantee this kind of shot improves too.

The good news, at least, is that Wagner is confident enough to let his shot fly. In the two games against Slovenia, he was willing to hunt out his 3-pointer. That was progress of sorts.

But everyone wants to see results. And the results have not followed.

Still time to level out

Is it time to panic about Franz Wagner's shot for the 2026 season with the Orlando Magic?

No.

This is just three games and still a relatively small sample. He can change his percentage pretty quickly as he racks up more games. These are friendlies too, and not the actual games.

On top of this too, Wagner is not getting the same shots he would get with the Magic. More likely, Orlando will be able to create more open looks for him. Defenses are keenly focused on Wagner in every way. His job is to drive and live in the paint.

Having said that, Wagner struggled in previous international tournaments. And that was only a preview of his struggles when he returned to the NBA.

Wagner shot 19 for 41 (46.3 percent) at the 2022 Eurobasket before hitting 36.1 percent of his threes in the 2023 season. He shot 6 for 24 (25.0 percent) in the 2023 World Cup before shooting 28.1 percent in the 2024 season. He shot 7 for 35 (20.0 percent) in the 2024 Paris Olympics.

This is indeed a preview of where Wagner's shot is at ahead of the season. And with two weeks between the end of Eurobasket and the start of training camp, there will not be much time to make tweaks and adjustments.

Whether he likes it or not, the microscope is trained on every bit of Wagner's shot. There might be some visual progress, but the German national team and the Magic need to see those shots go in to accomplish their big ambitions this season.