The Orlando Magic are one of the strangest teams in the league on paper.
This is not to say the team has more talent and should have a better record type of thing, if that is where you think this is going. The team's performance compared to preseason expectations is a discussion for another day and another test for how anyone evaluates this season.
This is about the team as it is now and how they measure up statistically.
Orlando is one of the weirdest teams in the league, comfortably above .500 and in the race for the 6-seed and avoiding the Play-In Tournament, but also statistically looking like a team that is hovering around .500 and not much better.
The Magic have the statistical profile of a much worse team, especially in the time since Franz Wagner's injury. Only the Los Angeles Lakers have a statistical profile that looks weirder.
The Magic's expected win total based on their stats is two or three wins lower than their 30-26 record entering Tuesday's game against those Lakers.
This has become a Rorschach Test of sorts. You can look at this picture and see a team that is truly better than its stats, a sign of the team's potential. Or you can look at it as a reason the bottom might suddenly fall out.
It is a cliff the Magic are dangling at the edge of. It has felt for a long time the Magic would either land safely or fall off.
Which side will they ultimately land?
The odd stat profile
Entering Tuesday's games, the Orlando Magic are 15th in the league with a +0.3 net rating. They are 17th in offensive rating at 113.7 points per 100 possessions and 13th (and rising) in defensive rating, giving up 113.4 points allowed per 100 possessions.
A +0.3 net rating is the stat profile of a team hovering around .500 -- likely to win 42 or 43 games. At 30-26, the Magic are on pace to win 43 or 44 games. So they are not too far above what they should be. Orlando clearly has stats that are better than its record.
Things get weirder though since Franz Wagner's injury on Dec. 7.
Since that early December game (but not including it), the Magic are an even 16-16. But they are 19th in net rating at -2.4 points per 100 possessions. Orlando ranks 23rd with 112.2 points per 100 possessions and 15th at 114.6 points allowed per 100 possessions.
This is not the stat profile of a .500 team. The Magic should consider themselves a bit lucky to still be in the fight and not struggling as they were at this time last year.
But games are not won on paper. They are won on the court. And despite the team's up-and-down, inconsistent nature this year, the Magic have found themselves on top. They have avoided many of the long losing streaks that plagued them last year.
Orlando finds a way to win when the team is tested.
The clutch difference
So how have the Orlando Magic seemingly outperformed their statistics?
Some of it might simply be this team has lost enough games to weigh their stats down. There might be a few outliers in blowout losses that push the numbers down.
The real reason, though, might be the same reason the Los Angeles Lakers find themselves so far above .500: The Magic win a lot of close games.
Orlando is 18-10 in clutch games (when a game is within five points with five minutes to play). That is the fifth-best win percentage in clutch situations this season. Their 18 wins are fourth-most and their 28 clutch games played are 14th-most.
The Magic, in other words, are where they are because they are able to win a lot of these toss-up close games.
That makes sense with the clutch moments the team has had -- from Desmond Bane's big three against the Portland Trail Blazers to Paolo Banchero's buzzer-beating three in overtime against the Brooklyn Nets or Anthony Black's thrilling dunk over the Memphis Grizzlies in Berlin. The Magic have somehow thrived late in games.
There are still some painful losses in the process too.
The Orlando Magic suffered a frustrating loss in the double-overtime defeat to the Phoenix Suns when Jalen Green hit a corner three at the end of double overtime. There was the 12-point fourth quarter in the loss at the Toronto Raptors that feels quite big right now. There was Cam Thomas' final scoring binge in the loss to the Milwaukee Bucks before the All-Star Break.
Every team has huge late wins and dispiriting late losses. That is part of life in the NBA.
Winning close so much, of course, is not a sustainable way to play. Good teams win these close games. But they should be cherries on top. The difference between a 47- or 48-win season and a 50-plus win season.
That is what happened to the Magic last year. Orlando went 18-17 in clutch games last season. A big reason why the Magic settled in at 41 wins.
This year, the clutch wins for the Magic have been the difference between a 41-win season and a 45- or 46-win season. Or, at least that is what the Magic hope.
Eye of the beholder
How anyone wants to view this is in the eye of the beholder.
On one hand, these close wins and the Orlando Magic staying in the race despite a .500 record for the last 2.5 months are a sign of how much talent is still present on this team. Even if they are not reaching their full potential, they are showing enough of it to remain competitive.
On the other hand, this is a sign the Magic are living on the edge. Start losing some of those close games and the team's record could fall apart quickly. It is a sign to the pessimists that the Magic are lucky to be where they are at.
Both perspectives have plenty of merit. And, ultimately, it is on the Magic to prove which team they are.
That is the good news. In the last 10 games, the Magic have gone 6-4 with a +3.8 net rating. They rank 16th in offensive rating at 113.2 points per 100 possessions and sixth in defensive rating at 109.4 points allowed per 100 possessions.
That is a stat profile that looks more like the 50-win team the Magic believed they could be. It might be better late than never for the team to find itself.
Only time will tell if this momentum becomes the team's true identity.