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Orlando Magic at Los Angeles Lakers: Stats and 3 Keys to Watch
Orlando | Los Angeles | |
|---|---|---|
100.3 | Pace | 99.6 |
113.7 | Off. Rtg. | 116.0 |
113.4 | Def. Rtg. | 116.7 |
52.9 | eFG% | 56.8 |
30.2 | O.Reb.% | 28.5 |
13.6 | TO% | 15.0 |
30.2 | FTR | 31.9 |
1. Returning to defense
The Orlando Magic knew that if they were going to turn things around this season, they would need to get back to their defensive identity.
More than anything that has been the frustrating part of the season. The Magic lost their edge on defense and it seemed inconsistent when it would show up and for how long.
The Magic are probably not exactly where they want to be. But the defense has stepped up lately. Orlando has climbed to 13th in defensive rating at 113.4 points per 100 possessions. In the last 15 games, the Magic are giving up 111.7 points per 100 possessions. In the last 10, the Magic are giving up 109.4 points per 100 possessions.
That is much more like Magic defense. And with an improving offense, the Magic are taking advantage of that defense so much more.
The biggest turn is in forcing turnovers. Orlando currently ranks ninth with a 15.0 percent turnover rate. In the last 10 games, the Magic are forcing a 15.7 percent turnover rate.
Things are starting to feel a bit more normal.
2. The Clutch Difference
The Los Angeles Lakers have the biggest difference between what their record is and what their record should be. Despite sitting 12 games over .500, they have a -0.7 net rating. No other team with a negative net rating is above .500. They are a true outlier.
One of the main reasons for this discrepancy? They dominate close games.
The Lakers are a league-leading 16-3 in close games. The Magic, for the record are fifth at 18-10, helping explain how the Magic have outperformed their statistics.
Los Angeles has a league-best 127.9 offensive rating in clutch situations. You would expect that, considering the star power the Lakers have in Luka Doncic, LeBron James and Austin Reaves. That trio accounts for 68.9 percent of the Lakers' total scoring anyway.
The challenge when facing the Lakers is containing the star power and bottling them up. That is the issue late in games and one of the reasons the Magic's offense late in games goes to the tank -- do not worry, the defense steps up late.
If this is a close game, the Lakers always have an advantage because they have solo artists who create advantages with their presence.
3. It's still shooting
The Los Angeles Lakers have too many players who are going to get theirs, no matter what the team does defensively. This game will still come down to whether the Orlando Magic can shoot the ball effectively.
This is not the Sacramento Kings, where the Orlando Magic will get loads of open shots. But there will be open shots to have if the Magic can get downhill and force the Lakers into rotations.
At that point, it is just about the Magic making shots when that time comes around.
Orlando is shooting 34.6 percent from three, now 24th in the league in a nice uptick recently. In wins, the Magic shoot 37.3 percent from three (still 24th among all teams when they win). In losses, the Magic shoot 31.5 percent from three. That is not the worst in the league, but the difference is clear.
Orlando is a capable three-point shooting team in wins and utterly abysmal in losses. The Magic need to make shots to win. It is not a hard equation.
Orlando Magic at Los Angeles Lakers: Injury Report & Projected Lineups
Orlando Magic Injury Report
- Franz Wagner - OUT (Left High Ankle Sprain Injury Management)
- Jalen Suggs - QUESTIONABLE (Back Strain)
- Colin Castleton - OUT (G-League Two-Way)
- Alex Morales - OUT (G-League Two-Way)
Los Angeles Lakers Injury Report
- Jaxson Hayes - DOUBTFUL (Right Ankle Sprain)
- Adou Thier - OUT (G-League On Assignment)
- Bronny James - OUT (G-League On Assignment)
Projected Starting Lineups
Orlando | Los Angeles | |
|---|---|---|
Anthony Black | PG | Marcus Smart |
Desmond Bane | SG | Austin Reaves |
Tristan da Silva | SF | Luka Doncic |
Paolo Banchero | PF | LeBron James |
Wendell Carter | C | Deandre Ayton |
Orlando Magic at Los Angeles Lakers: Prediction
Our Record: 33-23/24-32 ATS
The Orlando Magic are playing well on both ends right now. The mystery is just whether the Magic's process will net results because their shooting is so inconsistent and Paolo Banchero, while still holding so much gravity, is so inconsistent finishing at the rim and scoring in the key shots he needs to hit.
Orlando still cannot count on basic things the team needs to count on. The Magic are seeking consistency.
The defense has reached that level that it should keep the team tight in most games, even against solid teams (like the ones the Magic will face in the next three games). The Lakers right now are not good enough to pull away from anybody unless they have everything clicking.
But Los Angeles still has the best player on the floor in Doncic. And that can be enough to win. It is just never clear if Orlando will do all it needs to do to win these kinds of games quite yet.