Orlando Magic Daily Mailbag Volume 30: New Beginnings

The Orlando Magic are ready to begin a rebuild that will likely see a good chunk of their roster rebuilt. As the summer gets start I open the mailbag.

The NBA offseason is about to get going. The NBA Draft Lottery is Tuesday and the team’s future will get put into clearer focus. Or at least the rest of the offseason gets a little clearer as the team gets one of its most important pieces in place.

Of course, there is still a big thing to get through first. The Orlando Magic have to find a coach.

Considering all the changes president of basketball operations Jeff Weltman is making behind the scenes, it truly feels like a new day for the Magic.

It almost has to be because of the listless six seasons of the last rebuild. And the fact that there is new management putting its imprint on the team with a new coaching staff (eventually). The last part is the new players.

It certainly feels like the Magic are going to make those changes the next phase of the team’s rebuild.

It might take a while. The reality is the Magic still do not have a lot of cap room to play with. They will not be able to spend much in the offseason to make the roster better. They are likely going to pursue the trade route.

But after a 25-win season, what team is clamoring for Evan Fournier, Nikola Vucevic or Bismack Biyombo?

This is the quandary Weltman finds himself in. This is a team that has a tricky path forward. At least if they are unwilling to be patient.

As Weltman told fans in press conferences, he has not been here for the five years of pain the preceded him. He is trying to approach things with fresh eyes. And that might mean it is time for a hard reset.

The Magic are going to be rubbing all kinds of lucky totems to expedite that process in the Lottery. But, to be sure, the Magic still have a lot of work to do to improve their roster, their culture and their basketball operation.

That all will likely start this year. And with this franchise-changing moment in the Lottery coming up, it is time to dive into the Orlando Magic Daily Mailbag.

From Michael Clark via Comments

"The biggest question to me is how can the Magic improve their guard positions in a frontcourt-heavy draft? Opponents have been relentless in attacking the basket."

This is a big question for sure. Everyone looks at the Orlando Magic’s point guard situation, especially since the Elfrid Payton trade, and sees a clear need there. D.J. Augustin was serviceable as a starter — 11.7 points per game, 5.7 assists per game and a 56.1 percent effective field goal percentage as a starter last year. But no one considers him a long-term starter.

Orlando will have to address the point guard situation at some point. He very well could be someone they look at in the second round. But it seems highly unlikely a team will find a starter at the back end. And finding a long-term solution at point guard with the Magic’s lack of cap room or trading ability could also be extremely tough.

But this is not a team that is going to solve all its problems in one summer. Nor is this a team that can afford to miss on a really great player because of a need to fill a specific position. The Magic cannot target a point guard with their first-round pick. They have to take the best player available.

While Orlando seems to have a logjam at center, but if that is who the best player is, that is who they should pick.

But undoubtedly the Magic have to figure something out at point guard. It is too hard to say what the trade market might look like. Orlando is going to have a hard time piecing together a functioning roster in just one summer. That does not mean they should remain stagnant or still.

So how do the Magic improve their guard situation?

It is going to take some savvy. That is about all I can say. They are going to have to be smart with their picks — whether they take a guard in the first round or wait to use one of their two second-round picks (35th and 41st) — and add in some players who can contribute to the team in some way.

There are a lot of needs and questions this Magic roster has to answer. The guard situation — and I just focused on the point guard situation here since it looks like Evan Fournier and Jonathon Simmons have the shooting guard spot nailed down for a while — is one of them.

When it comes to the Draft, the Magic have to pick whatever is best available to them. There are just too many holes to fill.

From John Poulsen via e-mail

"Don’t know on the site if you did the player evaluation for Gordon yet or if this was discussed in there or not cause I don’t know if it’s up yet but do you think if the price is a little too high for the Magic that the Magic wouldn’t match a contract for Aaron Gordon or will match?"

The decision to match Aaron Gordon is the central decision of the Orlando Magic’s offseason.

Just from a financial standpoint, Orlando has $78.2 million guaranteed committed to next season. With a cap that is expected to hit at around $102 million and Aaron Gordon holding a cap hold of $16.5 million, that means the Magic have roughly $8 million of room before signing Gordon to a new deal. And that would be if the team cuts or renounces the rights to Shelvin Mack, Rodney Purvis and Khem Birch.

Gordon is likely to get quite the pay boost from even that $16.5 million amount — I have been thinking at least $20 million — so most of that cap room is eaten into. Renouncing him would obviously free up some cash to give the Magic a chance to spend.

That does not seem likely. Orlando giving up a 22-year-old player who just came off a career season.

But obviously, we would not be here if there were not some misgivings about keeping Gordon and giving him that big contract. It does not feel like in this market someone will give him a max contract. But, at the same time, Gordon did not exactly have the strongest end to the season.

It is easy to want to buy into the first half of the season. In his first 25 games, he averaged 18.5 points per game while shooting 49.2 percent from the floor and better than 40 percent from beyond the arc. In his final 19 games, he averaged 16.0 points per game but shot 40.6 percent from the floor.

Orlando Magic

It was quite the difference. That second half of the season version of Gordon is not someone you invest that much money in. Or at least you have some misgivings about. He struggled to get himself back into rhythm after the injuries and even took on some bad habits.

So there is that bit of tension. Adding in the fact this is a new management group clearly looking at a massive rebuild, and it begins to look like Jeff Weltman and John Hammond may not be as married to Aaron Gordon as we all think.

It definitely is not a sure thing Gordon is back. If creating financial flexibility is the goal, giving a five-year $100-plus million contract to Gordon is not going to help matters.

So whether the Magic re-sign Gordon or not might very well come down to reaching a number the Magic are comfortable investing. They have had a year to watch him and understand his place on the team.

If someone comes in with an offer that they are uncomfortable matching, it would not surprise me to see the Magic let Gordon walk in the end. It will be even more interesting to see if they make that decision before free agency by drafting a big wing like Michael Porter or a power forward like Marvin Bagley.

I wrote about the Orlando Magic’s problems trying to get the most out of Bismack Biyombo late in the season as Nikola Vucevic slowly got shut down. It was a hard thing to figure.

Statistically, Biyombo was not great last year — his 5.7 points and 5.7 rebounds per game were both worse than his previous year totals and his 1.2 blocks per game were in line with his career averages. Quite simply, Biyombo is never going to live up to his contract and those numbers certainly do not. And neither does his defensive impact.

Biyombo is just such a tough puzzle to resolve.

As a rim-protecting big, it seems like the best defensive strategy would be to funnel things to him. But Biyombo will often overplay and bite on pump fakes as he searches for blocks. He is a bit late to rotate and is undersized. Dwight Howard, the hulking behemoth in the middle, he is not.

With his offensive limitations, it would make sense to spread the floor with shooters or have effective mid-range shooters. That seems to be how the Toronto Raptors survived him offensively. The Magic certainly do not have that.

It just feels like Orlando does not have a roster that can remotely take advantage of Biyombo. And that contract? Yeah, no one is taking that. The Magic overpaid for a backup center. He is just not someone who can change the game defensively like a Rudy Gobert. And, at this point, even Gobert is getting played off the court in the Playoffs.

More from Mailbag

• Orlando Magic Daily Mailbag Volume 42: Preparing for a fun season
• Orlando Magic Daily Mailbag: Halfway through Year 1
• Orlando Magic Daily Mailbag: As the ping pong ball turns
• Orlando Magic Daily Mailbag Volume 41: Glimpses into the future
• Orlando Magic Daily Mailbag: At the crossroads

It is all a bad equation.

The best lineup this year that Bismack Biyombo played in that played at least 12 minutes contained D.J. Augustin, Arron Afflalo, Jonathon Simmons and Aaron Gordon. It had an 81.5 defensive rating and a 134.6 offensive rating in 12 minutes across six games.

The best lineup that played together for at least 48 minutes had Elfrid Payton, Jonathon Simmons, Evan Fournier and Aaron Gordon. In 219 minutes, it had a -8.6 net rating, including an 111.1 defensive rating.

That is not good, to say the least.

It leaves very little clues on how this roster can make the most of Biyombo and get the most out of him.

There may not be a “perfect” combination for Biyombo on this roster. There just are not enough shooters and Biyombo’s defensive output with the Raptors is probably overstated.

There is no way to get around this, Orlando is going to have to eat this bad decision until it is done. At least, the team is another year closer.

Unless, of course, Biyombo improves and becomes a much more impactful player. At this point, that seems unlikely.

I detailed the Orlando Magic’s cap situation earlier. Essentially, Orlando only has the mid-level exception available to them if they keep Aaron Gordon. And regardless of that, they have to resolve Gordon’s free agency first — they have about $8 million of cap room if they renounce all their other free agents with just Gordon’s cap hold.

So where does that leave the team searching for a point guard?

I addressed the guard situation a bit in an earlier question. But perhaps here is an opportunity to dive a little bit deeper into the class.

Obviously, the easiest answer to the point guard question is to draft one. Oklahoma Sooners guard Trae Young and Alabama Crimson Tide guard Collin Sexton are the best true point guards in the class. But, as I said earlier, the Magic should not be drafting for need. They need everything.

In the second round, there are some interesting point guard prospects to consider though. Players like Villanova Wildcats guard Jalen Brunson, USC Trojans guard De’Anthony Melton, SMU Mustangs guard Shake MIlton (a long 6-foot-6 combo guard), Wichita State Shockers guard Landry Shamet or West Virginia Mountaineers guard Jevon Carter all could be available when the Magic draft there.

But those are all backup options. None of those players is likely to resolve the Magic’s long-term point guard problems. Unless they are incredible steals.

Again, the Magic are not likely to have the cap room to go after a starter-caliber point guard. Maybe they could try to fish for a young player like the ones you suggested?

So looking at the free agent point guards, you have Avery Bradley, Tony Parker, Isaiah Thomas, Marcus Smart (restricted), Dante Exum (restricted) and Fred VanVleet (restricted). It is not the strongest free agent point guard class.

Signing a restricted free agent will be tough. Every team has their mid-level exception (of varying values depending on their taxpayer status) and teams seem likely willing to accept them.

We have a pretty vigorous debate on the OMD Slack channel about Dante Exum especially. I do not see how the Utah Jazz let him go without overpaying him. And it is really difficult to value him in any true sense because of his history of injuries (and the latest one that knocked him out of the Playoffs).

I still believe at least. But not enough to offer him the full mid-level. And with this team’s lack of shooting, would Exum really be the point guard to invest in for the future? Sure, take a flyer on him but a multi-year deal? Not with this group.

Such is the problem. None of those players seems like they are a long-term starting point guard option for this or any team. And the Magic do not have the money likely to compete for the best guys — even in this tight market.

That would be everything right?

The Orlando Magic are probably not wholly focused on winning in 2019. Sorry to burst that bubble. But I think they are approaching this rebuild in a much different way than Rob Hennigan did back in 2012.

I get the feeling — and I have nothing to justify this feeling — that the Magic were determined to go through this two-year tanking process. I think that is ultimately why coaches like Quin Snyder passed on the job. Yes, Quin Snyder was a finalist before the team hired Jacque Vaughn.

I believe Snyder turned the job down because the Magic were kind of doggedly going to pursue this path where they tanked for two years to build high draft picks. Hennigan was going to try to copy the Oklahoma City Thunder’s rebuild exactly to a tee. And that meant two years without winning.

The Magic, like the Thunder, got the second and fourth pick. But Victor Oladipo and Aaron Gordon are not Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. So there you go.

That was one of the problems with Hennigan’s rebuild. It felt like he did not have much flexibility in how he wanted to build.

I do not believe Jeff Weltman and John Hammond will have that problem. I think that if the team succeeds before they anticipate, they will be willing to go all in with it or let it play out.

In other words, I think they want a coach that will push his team to win and make winning a priority, but a coach that will not make that the only thing. At least for the first few years.

The primary thing they are looking for is certainly player development. This will be a young team that will need a lot of growth. But they also need someone who will set a culture that will allow them to grow in a positive direction. That is the part that was missing under Hennigan, I believe.

So the Magic are looking for a coach who will develop players primarily. But winning is not something they want to shy away from. The Magic, I think, want a guy who will keep that ultimate goal in mind and build up to it.

Next: Orlando Magic Daily Pre NBA Draft Lottery Big Board

This is not a rebuild that I think the team will go blindly into it with a dogmatic plan. I think Weltman and Hammond will be a bit more pragmatic and flexible with their plan. They will not rush things or speed up their process.