The NBA Draft Lottery is only a few days away. The Orlando Magic will have the fifth-best odds at winning. Let’s now take a good look at the top prospects.
The Orlando Magic’s coaching search marches on. . . but quickly the Magic will have to start making some decisions. The offseason officially begins for the non-Playoff teams on Tuesday. The NBA Draft Lottery is here.
Without knowing the full draft order, a mock draft is probably still a bit premature. There is still no sense even of what the Magic are looking for.
And that is not just because the Magic do not have a coach at the moment. It is hard to get a sense of even the play-style they want to go with. The coach will have a lot to do with the direction this team wants to go.
This does not even get into the complete flux the roster remains in. It is clear the Magic are not going to bring back a lot of the same players either. That makes them something of a clean slate.
Everything is hard to judge right now.
Both president of basketball operations Jeff Weltman and general manager John Hammond have a history of taking players with length and versatility. Hammond as the general manager of the Milwaukee Bucks took a chance on a young, raw Greek prospect named Giannis Antetokounmpo in the mid-first round and then took another long-limbed, supposedly defensive-minded center in Thon Maker, a reach at No. 10 two years ago.
Jonathan Isaac seems to be of that type. Maybe that informs the direction the team will go. But, really, no one knows what the Magic are thinking these days. And with it feeling like the Magic are going to start almost from scratch, just about any need is on the table.
Mock drafts are having a hard time getting a handle on what the Magic want to do too.
ESPN’s Lottery Machine has the Magic taking Deandre Ayton if they win the Lottery. Brendon Kleen of FanSided has the Magic taking Trae Young at No. 6. It seems like there are any of four or five players the Magic could take, even if they end up where they are meant to at No. 5.
Come Tuesday, the Magic will have 88 chances out of 1,000 to win the NBA Draft Lottery and a 29.1 percent chance to land in the top three.
Our Ricky Scricca came out with his big board three weeks ago. He has updated his list using his extensive study and his own statistical measures. His takes are definitely a bit different than the mainstream, although backed up very well.
That is at least a baseline for everyone to start with. As the NBA Draft Lottery creeps closer, it is clear there are some very good players in this year’s Draft. There appear to be at least six or seven players with clear star potential. But they all also seem to have a fatal flaw.
How the Magic order these players will be critical for their decision making obviously. But it will also be critical for the direction they want this team to go. This player will be a foundational piece — to go along with Jonathan Isaac and (probably) Aaron Gordon.
Finding that fit will also be a part of the team’s calculation.
A lot of the information and the differentiation between these prospects will come in interviews and workouts in the weeks to come. A lot of them feel that close.
So how would I order them entering the NBA Draft Lottery? Glad you asked . . .
The Top Two
When it comes to this NBA Draft, I think there is a clear top two. And really, to me, there is a clear No. 1 too. But if the Magic end up with one of the top two picks, I think this is the real decision the Magic have.
There quite simply has not been an international prospect with the track record that Luka Doncic has at his age entering the NBA. He is quite simply an outlier and someone who could make an immediate impact in the league while still having incredible upside.
For Real Madrid this year, Doncic is averaging 14.6 points, 5.2 rebounds and 4.6 assists per game in 24.9 minutes per game. Those are some impressive stats from an 18-year-old in a professional league. Spain’s ACB is the second-best domestic league in the world and Euroleague is the second-best league in the world overall. Coming to the NBA is a clear step up.
It is not a sure thing — nothing is. But Doncic has an innate passing skill and sense about where things are on the floor. And he hs the ability to put the ball exactly where he wants to put it. This is from an 18-year-old.
He did all this at Eurobasket too, against NBA-quality competition.
There are plenty of concerns about his defense. And those are fair. He is not a super athlete. He will always struggle on the defensive end. His lack of athleticism may make things difficult for him offensively too.
But he is such a naturally gifted passer and offensive player that everyone seems to think he can overcome these flaws. To me, he is far and away the best player in the Draft and the clear choice at No. 1.
The only other player I think you can make an argument for at No. 1 outside of Luka Doncic is center Deandre Ayton.
Ayton is more of an athletic freak in a lot of ways. The prototypical center that the league likes. An athlete who can finish above the rim and work around the basket. Ayton’s strong season with the Arizona Wildcats — 20.1 points and 11.6 rebounds per game. He was just an animal.
What is there not to like about him?
There is apparently a lot. Most bigs in the modern NBA focus more on defense. And while Ayton has a developed post game, he does not have much of a jumper. A lot of his scoring came at the expense of smaller players.
The biggest sticking point with him is his defense, though.
Ayton is not known as a good defender. Not in the least. He still had some good defensive moments — averaging 1.9 blocks per game. That, at least, seems to suggest there is some defensive potential there.
But watching Ayton play, it was clear too that none of it was natural. He was often a step late with his defensive rotations. It looked like he had to think about what to do before he did it. That often means he was a hair late.
Clearly, he had the athleticism NBA teams want at the center position. The question now is whether he can learn the defensive timing and instincts he will need as a rim-protecting center in the NBA.
There are plenty who are skeptical — that is why Ayton is No. 9 in Ricky’s rankings among a few other reasons. I am not. I think Ayton can at least become passable and be a more offensive-minded version of Andre Drummond.
The Real Targets
In reality, the Magic are not likely to get a top three pick. In all likelihood, they are going to sit tight in pick five or six. But that will not leave them in a terrible position. That will lead them to pick among the following players.
And they are all intriguing choices. They may not have the extreme upside potential as the top two guys, but they are fine picks. Players who can certainly fill a big need for the Magic — or for any team.
When it comes to the “best of the rest,” I think Jaren Jackson Jr. has the best everything that is left out there.
He is a gifted, instinctual defender, which is always the place you want to start with a center in this league. Jackson averaged 3.0 blocks per game and 5.8 rebounds per game in 20.8 minutes per game. Jackson played very limited minutes for the Michigan State Spartans — Tom Izzo prefers his veterans, I suppose — and played them largely out of position at power forward.
That is not to say he is a perfect prospect. Jackson’s 3.2 fouls per game in those minutes are certainly a concern. Was he simply unleashed to block shots and be an active player around the basket without any consequence to his fouling? Or is that a sign of a player who chases blocks and is a bit overeager?
Either way, it feels like those instincts can get dialed back. Jackson is one of the youngest players in the Draft and has a lot of room to grow. Defense is the toughest thing to teach young players and he already seems to have the skills to play that end.
So if someone like Mohamed Bamba is the high-end of the defensive scale (all defense and no offense) and Marvin Bagley is the high-end of the offensive scale (all offense and no defense), Jackson is more in the middle. Probably leaning toward the defensive side.
Jackson showed plenty of offensive flashes throughout his season in East Lansing. He has solid athleticism with the ball in his hands and good instincts on that end. He just has a lot of growing to go.
Mohamed Bamba is probably the most intriguing prospect in this draft. He has extreme length — a 7-foot-9 wingspan — that already has him drawing Rudy Gobert comparisons. Physically that makes sense. And his defensive impact also makes sense.
Bamba blocked 3.7 shots per game. He surely changed plenty others. Bamba was just that much of a force. Length alone will do that.
The question with Bamba is whether he can grow the rest of his offensive game. That is what he and trainer, Drew Hanlen, are working on. And the early video suggests there have been some results. Obviously, no one will really know until he tests them in Summer League and then eventually in the regular season.
That still is a long way away. Based on his time with the Texas Longhorns, his offensive game is rudimentary at best. Raw is a more-than-fair assessment. Bamba has a lot of potential and natural ability. Clearly, the other skills still have to follow.
No prospect may divide fans more than Trae Young.
With the Oklahoma Sooners, he was their everything in both good and bad ways. He put up incredible and eye-popping scoring numbers, making shots from all points on the court. It is hard to ignore those averages — 27.4 points per game, 8.7 assists per game and 51.8 percent effective field goal percentage.
Trae Young feels like the first player to model his game after Stephen Curry and to do it successfully. There is simply no ignoring the ability to warp defenses like that. And the Magic certainly could use both a point guard and a primary scorer and shooter.
Still, there are a lot of questions about Young. He turned it over 5.2 times per game, by far the most in the nation. And he faced constant double teams. That will not happen in the NBA, but he has to prove that he can score over taller defenders and at the basket.
Young could do all that. His shot will be what makes or breaks him in the NBA. But he is not just his shot. He is a really skilled passer. Almost to the point that we do not talk about it enough.
Taking him would not be bad at all.
The Outcasts
Draft boards can be very different depending on what people like in their player. There are plenty of people who see Marvin Bagley and Michael Porter as the two best players in this draft (after the top two, at least).
But despite the Magic’s need to pick based on best player available, there are a few players that despite their talent do not fit the bill.
If Orlando is planning to build around Jonathan Isaac and Aaron Gordon, that means picking a player how is strictly a forward is a no go. The Magic cannot afford to cramp their playing style or waste the pick on someone who is simply an extra body.
These two players have talent and would be fine picks. But do not fit . . . unless the team is letting Gordon walk in free agency.
To many observers, Marvin Bagley looks like a can’t miss prospect. He is the best post scorer in the draft and one of the best overall offensive players in the class. Bagley averaged a robust 21.0 points per game to go with 11.0 rebounds per game. He checks out on the numbers.
But there is a little bit more going on beneath the surface.
Bagley did most of that damage around the basket. He does not have a 3-point game to speak of. That begins to limit what he can do. And for a team looking to find a foundational piece, it is hard to say that Bagley fits that bill.
On top of all this, he is a poor defender. Coach Mike Krzyzewski is loathe to go to a zone defense. Not only did the Duke Blue Devils play almost exclusively zone defenses, but teams still sought to attack Bagley on that end.
In his lone year in college, Bagley showed no defensive instincts or inclination to play on that end. And that is a major concern for any team hoping to use him as a building block.
Before a back injury knocked Michael Porter Jr. out for essentially the entire season, he would have been in line for the number one overall pick. It is pretty hard to overlook that and overlook him for that reason. A team could be getting a real steal in Porter at this point in the draft.
But it is a big risk. Not at least until teams get a close look at his medical records and how he is progressing from a back injury that kept him out for all but three games. And two of those were in the SEC Tournament and NCAA Tournament.
Porter still was able to get his points. And the way he moves on the floor certainly looks like a star. There is just no watching his game with the Missouri Tigers and being able to come to any conclusions. He has that natural scoring ability but health is the main concern.
For the Orlando Magic, the issue remains the fit with the Magic’s two other forward. They certainly could use a scorer like Porter. And they could give him time to grow and keep Gordon. But that does not add up to much either.
If you pick Porter, you better be sure he is going to be healthy and your guy.
The Best of the Rest
There is a clear top seven in this draft. And the Orlando Magic are likely to get one of those seven players. But that does not mean there are not some intriguing players who could climb into contention — as noted, especially the last two do not seem to fit the team’s future plans.
While these players may not have the same star potential — although, it being the Draft who knows what anyone’s potential really is? — they will still provide a solid contribution to whatever team drafts them. These guys, at the very least, will be role players for a very long time.
Mikal Bridges was a junior who finally had his breakout his third year as the Villanova Wildcats tore its way through the NCAA this year. The Wildcats were one of the best teams in the nation all year and dominated throughout the NCAA Tournament to win their second national championship in three years.
Bridges profiles as one of the best 3-and-D players in the Draft. His experience makes him the surest thing int he Draft. If one with a more certain ceiling. If the Draft is a futures game, Bridges feels about as safe as a typical 401k mutual fund.
Bridges averaged 17.7 points per game and shot 43.5 percent from beyond the arc. He cut his teeth his first two years in college as a strong, versatile defender. His scoring explosion this year was the product of several years of work.
Bridges is the most likely to make an immediate impact and fit into a role. He just never may become the star that a team needs. But if you are drafting at this spot in the draft, he is more than OK. And Bridges is still liable to get hot and have a big game too.
At the beginning of the season, Collin Sexton was ranked among the best players in the entire draft class. He was tearing things up with some impressive statistical performances. Not to mention he had an iconic performance nearly leading the Alabama Crimson Tide over the Minnesota Golden Gophers despite playing 3-on-5.
He had 40 points in that game. It was the kind of iconic game that tells scouts what kind of competitiveness and intensity. Those kinds of stories go a long way. At least anecdotally.
Sexton is a good defender and a gifted passer. But his shooting still leaves a lot to be desired. He shot just 33.6 percent from the college 3-point line.
After his strong start, he also had a deep swoon in the middle of the season that put Alabama squarely on the bubble. And that caused his draft stock to slide just a bit.
He played extremely well in the SEC Tournament and NCAA Tournament though. His season-long average was 19.2 points and 3.6 assists per game. He averaged 16.8 points and 3.8 assists per game in SEC play. In the postseason, Sexton posted 24.2 points per game, 3.6 assists per game and shot 52.7 percent from the floor with a 60.1 percent effective field goal percentage.
His shooting will be the key to his future regardless.
A lot of the attention for the Duke Blue Devils turned to Marvin Bagley. He was the one putting up the splashy numbers and getting a lot of the offensive attention. There is a current of scouts who believe his batterymate Wendell Carter Jr. might be the better pro prospect.
The stats are not eye-popping. He posted 13.5 points per game and 9.1 rebounds per game. Bagley ate up a lot of the statistics. But Carter provided most of the defensive impact for the Blue Devils throughout the season.
He also appears to have some 3-point shooting potential, although that is not a big part of his game. Carter works more as a modern center. He is not the crazy athlete of other rim protecting centers, but he has a solid game. A game that did not get the chance to blossom and shine in college.
The rest of the Lottery
The Orlando Magic can fall only to eighth in the Lottery. But you never know what can happen with trades. And you got to know the draft well enough.
For now, we will fill out the rest of the Lottery with our big board with some brief comments.
An intriguing 6-foot-6 combo guard who quietly was the best player for the Kentucky Wildcats all year. His strong finish to the year will only add to the intrigue.
Robert Williams often got overlooked, but his solid 10.4 points, 9.2 rebounds and 2.6 blocks per game are plenty to get excited about. His numbers stayed pretty flat from his freshman to his sophomore year. Still, this is an athletic big man worth consideration.
A big part of the Texas Tech Red Raiders’ surge this year into national prominence. Zhaire Smith is a guard known more for his defense, but showed some real offensive promise in averaging 11.3 points per game and shooting 58.8 percent effective field goal percentage. He is not a volume 3-point shooter yet though.
Kevin Knox is a versatile forward full of talent. He averaged 15.6 points per game last year with some solid games. But he has to improve his 3-point shooting.
Two athletic forwards who do not quite have a position. Lonnie Walker is a combo perimeter player coming off a serious injury that ended his season. Miles Bridges is a tweener between the forward positions. Athletic enough to finish around the basket, but without the shot to play on the perimeter for long. Ketia Bates-Diop also falls on that category. Although he is more technique than athleticism.
Three guards with some vastly different skills here.
Khyri Thomas averaged 15.1 points per game and shot better than 40 percent from beyond the arc. He could easily fit in as a shooter off the bench for just about any team.
Anfernee Simons is one of the more intriguing prospects in the entire draft. He is one of the younger prospects coming through high school. He grew up in the Orlando area — yes, he was named after that Anfernee — but should be an interesting prospect in his own right as an athletic combo guard.
Jalen Brunson was a rock for Villanova in the team’s NCAA Tournament run. It is hard to dislike the guy. While he may lack supreme upside, he should be an extremely solid backup point guard at the very least.
Aaron Holiday is an intriguing point guard — from a good point guarding family. He had a good year with the UCLA Bruins, but he often tried to do too much. He will have to reign in his turnovers to find success in the NBA.
Here is the rest of my top 30:
Next: Differentiating assistant coaches a difficult task
On to the NBA Draft Lottery. Once the draft order is set, not only will the Magic know where they will pick, but we will have a better idea of how things will shake out after Tuesday.