Michael Porter Jr. has the physical tools of a dynamic two-way player and is arguably the most polished scorer in this draft class. But his season-ending injury has him lost in the shuffle.
While prospects like Oklahoma Sooners guard Trae Young, Arizona Wildcats center Deandre Ayton and Boise State Broncos forward Chandler Hutchison have continued their meteoric rises through the ranks of this draft class, Missouri Tigers forward Michael Porter Jr. has gotten lost in the shuffle.
A back injury suffered at the beginning of the season sidelined him for what will probably be his entire college tenure. Questions about his health and the lack of actual high-level playing time on which to evaluate his talent have caused him to drop out of the top five of many mid-season draft rankings, which would have been unthinkable just months ago.
Porter was the No. 2 overall prospect according to 247Sports.com.
Those concerns are fair. But even before starting at Missouri, Porter gave scouts and fans more than enough reasons to think of him as a potential number-one pick.
Unless the injury is far worse than was led on, none of those things have changed. He can score efficiently from all three levels, handle the ball, pass and create his own shot. Porter has the physical tools to be a versatile two-way player.
Most significantly, he might be the best one-on-one scorer in this draft. Isolation basketball is less in vogue than it once was, but it is still one of the most valuable skills you can find in a prospect. Especially a potential all-star.
All that said, if Porter wants to be successful at the next level, he will need to improve his toughness, improve his willingness to create and fight through contact and improve both his defensive effort and IQ.
Let’s dive into it.
Halfcourt Scoring
Michael Porter Jr.’s one-on-one scoring is arguably the most valuable, most impressive part of his game. His versatile jumper, high release point and ability to create off the bounce and score inside the arc on face-ups and out of triple-threat invoke comparisons to Carmelo Anthony and Tracy McGrady – the latter of whom Porter cites as a key source of inspiration.
There is only so much you can learn about a player from one-on-one drills, but his ability to pivot, rise up over smaller defenders and hit turnaround jumpers is unique in this draft class.
His approach to exploiting mismatches leaves a little bit of physicality to be desired. But his high release point combined with his body control fading away in the post makes him an impressive scoring weapon. His defender does not stand a chance on the possession above.
At Stephen Curry’s basketball camp, Porter went one-on-one with Dennis Smith Jr., a significantly smaller player not exactly known for his defensive prowess. Smith repeatedly forced him to his weak hand and Porter settled for jump shots despite having a lane to the basket.
Ideally, you would like to see him work harder for a better shot and try to turn the corner. But his turnaround jumper and skill pulling up from midrange allowed him to score anyways.
In Porter’s defense, this footage is from several years ago. He has had plenty of time to work on his game since. But there has not been enough film of him at high levels of competition up to this point to quell concerns about his physicality.
These concerns have also showed up more recently at Missouri.
In this clip, Porter attempts to get a low-post seal against a smaller player. While he does gain position, he could stand to lower his center of gravity. After all, this is a 6-foot-5 guard he is battling against.
Porter projects as a NBA power forward. Getting position on the low block in this scenario should be a little easier than this.
Later in the same game against the Kansas Jayhawks, we see him struggle to use his body to create space to score while defended by another guard, Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk.
Porter is light in his lower body but still should have the strength to dominate this matchup. In addition to improving his strength, learning how to better leverage his lower body could really improve his ability to attack these kinds of advantages.
Most of his film up to this point indicates a contact-averse style of play. But when he is motivated, he is willing to mix it up on the offensive glass for putbacks and tip-ins.
He has plenty of room to improve his physical strength. And he is well-established as a versatile shooter and isolation threat. But if he begins his NBA career playing the 4, his inability to consistently seal, post up mismatches and crash the glass will be an issue as his opponents get bigger and stronger.
Off the ball, Porter has displayed solid instincts as a cutter. His lack of first-step burst (also an issue wrought partially by his problematic lower body strength) might make it hard for him to be that effective as a cutter at the next level, at least early in his career.
But it is a positive indicator of his offensive IQ to see him have the presence of mind to take advantage of a ball-watching defender.
Although he is no Deandre Ayton, he has repeatedly shown standstill two-foot leaping ability that belies his overall athletic makeup. That bodes well for his upside as a pick-and-roll finisher, which will be a useful skill at power forward. Plus, any time you have a player who can both finish and initiate, that will allow you to do creative things with your offense.
In addition to his potential as an off-ball cutting, finishing and spot-up threat, he has shown flashes of primary ball handling capabilities.
In this clip, Porter uses a flat ball screen to get going downhill. For a player without much first-step burst, this type of screen is particularly useful. He uses a slight stutter-step to get his defender going over the screen before driving right and finishing through current Texas Longhorns center Mohamed Bamba – no easy task.
He understands how to manipulate ball screens to gain advantages. And he scores here, but ideally, you would like to see him use his impressive length to extend out and finish around Bamba after he goes vertical.
For a young player, Porter already has advanced body control, so with the right coaching, this kind of thing is easily fixable and not a huge red flag.
His lack of explosiveness is a common thread here, but he has very impressive top-end speed. That leads to our next slide.
Transition Scoring
Michael Porter Jr.’s calling card is his isolation scoring. But some of this most impressive offensive plays have come in the open court.
A far more fluid athlete than explosive, Porter’s athletic capabilities shine more in transition than in the halfcourt. He is a capable rebounder liable to grab-and-go on opponent misses, lead the break and make a good pass or finish in transition.
In the clip above, Porter finishes a tough shot through contact after a missed alley-oop attempt, earning a trip to the foul line.
He is also a pull-up threat, which forces defenders to play up on him in transition, allowing him and his teammates easier paths to the basket. But his size and high release point allow him to hit jumpers off the dribble even when the defense is close.
His defenders have to prioritize watching him as a trailer instead of gravitating toward the basket. Again, that opens up easy shot opportunities for teammates. Take note of the impressive lift he gets on this transition pull-up jumper.
Porter’s top-end speed allows him to frequently beat defenses in transition without the ball in his hands.
Here he beats fellow lottery prospect and Duke Blue Devils forward Marvin Bagley downcourt, receives the outlet pass and finishes.
Same concept here, as Porter beats all nine other players to the basket and finishes.
He might not be the most explosive athlete, but he is an effortless leaper off two feet, which makes him a formidable lob threat.
Here, he catches a lob from Alabama Crimson Tide guard Collin Sexton.
And here is a one-handed alley oop in transition.
Up to this point, it is much easier for him to beat defenders in the open court rather than the halfcourt, where he prefers to rise up and shoot over defenders instead of getting through or around them. Because of that, he creates more playmaking opportunities for himself in transition than in the halfcourt by forcing more defenders to commit.
DraftExpress uses this play from a Nike Hoop Summit scrimmage to illustrate his open court ball handling. It is also a great example of how his height allows him to make passes in traffic that many players cannot.
As DraftExpress explains in the video, he is a decidedly score-first player. But he has the skill, vision and wherewithal to make plays for others.
He has no shortage of self-confidence, which sometimes leads to him taking ill-advised contested jumpers, but he has also shown a proclivity for drawing multiple defenders and making the right pass to an open teammate.
Defense
For me personally, Porter’s defense is one of the most interesting points of contention surrounding his draft stock. He has incredible physical tools and has shown flashes of multi-positional versatility, but his motor can waver, to say the least.
He has a 9-foot standing reach (108 inches), which is on par with many NBA centers. For reference: Michigan State Spartans center Jaren Jackson Jr.’s is 109, Duke Blue Devils forward Marvin Bagley’s 105.5, Duke’s Wendell Carter’s 108 and New Orleans Pelicans forward Anthony Davis’ 108.
Because head-to-toe size has little bearing on whether a player can block or deter shots, standing reach is far more practical than height when evaluating rim protection. Considering Porter’s impressive measurements, his mobility and his ability to get up off of two feet, one would think he has considerable upside as a frontcourt defender.
In the video above, Bagley tries to take Porter one-on-one, but Porter’s standing reach is on full display, as he holds his ground without fouling and forces ugly miss because of Bagley’s inability to back him down, get around him or shoot over him.
He has also shown flashes as a help defender, frequently rotating over to block shots in international play.
Exhibit B:
And exhibit C:
Again, although he is not explosive, he is more mobile than most big men. Porter can get up quickly off two feet and has impressive reach and has displayed solid instincts when engaged.
“When engaged” is the caveat here. His motor leaves a lot to be desired.
Take this clip for example. He jogs back in transition, does not get into a stance, lazily swipes at a pass and does not try to box out.
The issues with defensive effort are well-documented. But at times he has also struggled to defend smaller guards despite his seven-foot wingspan.
He is a little slow rotating his hips and does not sit down in his defensive stance as much as one would like when defending the ball.
In the video above, he manages to recover and contest. But that footwork simply will not cut it against NBA athletes and ball handlers. This clip is a more egregious (and less referee-obstructed) example of his slow hip rotations and hunched stance.
That said, if Porter is playing power forward, he does not necessarily need to lock down guards to be an effective defensive option.
Having equity as a weakside help defender and shot blocker is more than enough to indicate potential to add positive value to that end. But in the event he improves his quickness and mechanics defending on the perimeter, that makes him all the more tantalizing as a modern NBA four.
Analyzing Fit
If some of these strengths and criticisms sound familiar, you are not crazy. Decision-making, defense despite physical tools, toughness, explosiveness and finishing were all concerns raised about Jayson Tatum in the draft process.
Tatum also had similar selling points: scoring polish and versatility, excellent size, good mechanics and upside as a two-way Swiss army knife.
Andrew Wiggins also had many of these pluses and minuses. But in the end, only one of those two has gone on to realize their defensive potential and use their offensive skills in a manner conducive to winning alongside more talented players.
Tatum and Wiggins’ careers are very young, but their trajectories illustrate how important coaching and situation is in getting a player to realize his upside. It is hard not to see those two as touchstones for determining Porter’s range of NBA outcomes.
Porter would be best served going to a situation similar to Tatum’s, where he can be used as more of an ancillary offensive threat within a scheme, cutting, finishing, spotting up and providing positive playmaking value while occasionally taking advantage of favorable mismatches, and playing and defending multiple positions.
If he feels similarly, Porter holds some leverage in the form of his medical records. Teams may pass on him if he chooses to withhold that information. To some limited extent, he may be able to choose his destiny.
If Porter is thrust into a primary offensive role from the outset, that could bring to the surface his biggest warts as a prospect. It could entrench him into his bad defensive effort and offensive decision-making habits, like Wiggins and the desultory Minnesota Timberwolves of 2014-17.
Let’s make one thing clear: the Orlando Magic are a lot more like the 2014 Minnesota Timberwolves than the 2017 Boston Celtics. Orlando might not be the best situation for Porter.
Orlando Magic
Slightly less concerning is his fit alongside Aaron Gordon and Jonathan Isaac. Although all three are best at power forward, their skills are complementary in many ways, especially considering Porter’s creation, shooting and ball-handling skills. All three can defend multiple positions and be effective help defenders.
It is not a seamless fit. But it does fit with this front office’s affinity for frontcourt players with seven-foot wingspans.
The Magic are also not able to draft primarily based on need or fit. Those things should always be considered, but John Hammond and Jeff Weltman have made it clear they are not absolutely committed to anyone currently on this roster.
If Porter is the best player on the board, it makes plenty of sense to snag him, assuming the injuries are not more severe than currently understood.
How he will use his incredible tools in the NBA will determine if his career resembles one of his inspirations, Tracy McGrady, or that of a player dogged with effort and intensity questions everywhere he goes.
Next: 2018 Draft Profiles: Trae Young
It is hard, if not impossible to make a prediction on that without knowing him personally. But rest assured, wherever he goes, he will find a way to get buckets.