Trae Young is one of the NCAA’s most hyped, dynamic point guard prospects in a long time. But how does he project into the NBA and onto the Orlando Magic?
Whenever a player impacts the league like Stephen Curry has, NBA teams and scouts scour the ends of the earth for the next iteration of that player. It happened with Michael Jordan, Dirk Nowitzki, LeBron James and countless more superstars. And it rarely works out that way.
Whenever a player is touted as the “next” something, he often ends up either carving his own path like Kobe Bryant, Vince Carter or LeBron James (all touted as the next Michael Jordan) or utterly failing to live up the hype, like Harold Miner (another next Michael Jordan), Darko Milicic or Yi Jianlian (drafted in the wake of Dirk Nowitzki and Yao Ming‘s successes).
When Hall of Fame talent comes along, there is rarely a “next.” They influence young players, the game evolves and those players build upon their contributions.
Trae Young’s style of play — particularly his pull-up threes from the logo — clearly has Stephen Curry’s influence. But it does no one any favors to box him into Curry’s mold. It is a square shape and a round hole. Both are unique players, with unique flaws and their own positive traits that have led their teams to construct offenses around their talent.
Young is an impressive playmaker, a next-level off-the-dribble shooter and a skilled ball handler. He will need to improve his finishing below the rim, off-ball movement and defense to reach his ceiling. But his ceiling is as high as just about anyone’s in this draft.
So, let’s dive into it.
Shooting
Trae Young has long been considered a potential NBA prospect, but his penchant for nuclear, Steph Curry-esque shooting performances from 25-plus feet is what now has him on everyone’s radar as a possible top-five pick.
He has cooled off since his white-hot start to the season, but his stroke off the dribble is still impressive. His quick trigger forces defenders to pick him up as soon as he crosses the halfcourt line, giving his teammates ample space to operate. All he needs is a ball screen and he can make offense happen.
Young generates 0.893 points per possession as a pick-and-roll ball handler, according to Synergy. That is good for the NCAA’s 73rd percentile. He takes a jumper off the dribble on 50 percent of those possessions, where he creates 1.133 points per possession.
Many of those come relatively early in the shot clock, or on a secondary break, like the bomb against TCU Horned Frogs above.
If his man does not fight around the screen hard enough, or if the big is too slow to defend at the level of the screen, Young punishes the defense with ease.
Of course, there is another side to this coin. His shot selection can be spotty, and many of his pull-ups are not good shots.
This shot against the Oklahoma State Cowboys look great if it goes in, but when it clanks off the rim, the viewer is left wondering why the team did not work harder for a better shot. At the NBA level, you typically only see this when a player like Curry is either frustrated or white-hot. Young had about five or six more of these ugly misses all within the first half. He dropped a career-high 48 in this game as his team lost in overtime.
So far, those shots have been the exception to the rule.
His 56.2 effective field goal percentage on pull-up jumpers would be comfortable in the NBA’s top three among players with at least three attempts per game, behind only Stephen Curry and Bogdan Bogdanovic.
Everyone is well-acquainted with his pull-up daggers, but his catch-and-shoot jumper is also an important part of his game, especially when projecting him to the NBA
There are some concerns here, as his poor conversion rate on guarded catch-and-shoot jumpers (33 percent) and mediocre efficiency on spot-ups (0.872 points per possessions) might raise red flags about his ability to deal with close-outs from NBA athletes. But the results have been good overall. He has a ridiculous 71.3 percent effective field goal percentage on catch-and-shoot jumpers and has shown some creativity attacking closeouts.
Young does not quite have the strength or touch around the rim to take it to the rack yet consistently (currently shooting 45 percent at the rim – a very poor mark). But here is an example from that same TCU game about how he still manages to use the threat of a drive to manipulate defenders.
He kicks the ball out, relocates to the corner and gets the ball back. He identifies the closeout arriving and uses a shot fake to coax the defender into over-committing.
The sloppy closeout allows Young to dribble behind the TCU player, get him going backwards then use a crossover to create space for a three-point jumper. It is still a tough shot, but it is one that Young can make because of his quick dribble-to-shot transition.
Still, gauging his potential as an off-ball shooting threat is difficult. He currently has only 17 total possessions coming off screens, and while his efficiency there is impressive (81.3 percent effective field goal percentage), it is still a small sample.
He usually has the ball in his hands and when he does not, he sometimes looks disengaged. This pattern shows up in the Synergy data, where he has cut on only six total possessions.
All too often, Young will kick it to a teammate and then back out of the way like the possession is over. Here is one example that ended up with an assist.
Ideally, you would like to see him at least relocate along the perimeter to force his defender to stay glued to him, rather than standing around, allowing him to help off, get into the paint and clog up the offense’s spacing.
But this habit is not unfixable. His quickness and otherworldly range should make it relatively easy for an NBA coach either to emphasize more movement and cutting when he is off-ball or to implement him into floppy or zipper sets as a shooting threat.
Here, Young catches the ball at the logo. He is far out enough, and the defense is slow enough, that he has time to turn, set his feet and have space to fire away. Take note of the pressure this applies to the defense, as multiple defenders try to close out on him, leaving at least one teammate open.
The release motion is fluid and the sheer depth of that shot will always make it difficult for teams to defend. But it remains to be seen whether Young can be effective running around screens with NBA defenders trailing and stunting. His low release point is cause for concern, and he clearly needs to make strides in terms of footwork and understanding how to turn, catch and fire with optimal quickness.
The Oklahoma Sooners run a baseline out-of-bounds play that involves Young inbounding the ball then receiving a screen on the low block to get him out to the corner. They run this play somewhat frequently and it provides a large portion of his off-ball shooting possessions.
Again, the stroke and overall catch-and-release motion looks fluid and projectable. But he will need to speed the motion up considering his low release point. It will be more difficult to get that shot off when the defenders are smarter, bigger and more athletic.
Trae Young’s ultra-deep pull-up shooting gravity is the most eye-catching part of his game. There have been few, if any, NCAA players to replicate his performance thus far in any capacity.
That said, when projecting him into the NBA, Young must expand his offensive game. His usage rate will decrease when he enters the league as a rookie, so he will have to prove he can consistently put pressure on defenses without the ball in his hands.
He needs to find ways to make a consistently positive impact without the ball, whether it is more freelance motion around the perimeter or better footwork running off screens. His pull-up bombs are jaw-dropping, but chances are, he won’t have the same green light in the NBA that he does at Oklahoma.
Ball handling
Trae Young’s handle is arguably his biggest swing skill in terms of NBA success. Because pull-up jumpers with a low release point make up the plurality of his scoring possessions, his handle and footwork are what will allow or prevent him from getting enough space at the next level.
Clearly, he has had very few issues with that at the college level. He creates an elite 1.195 points per possession in isolation, often taking bigs off the dribble, shooting step-back jumpers and driving inside to shoot runners and floaters.
He relies on his hang dribble to beat bigs off switches and get inside. On the play above, he does exactly that and draws a foul.
Here is where his pull-up shooting is particularly beneficial, as it forces defenders to respect his hesitations, hang dribbles, shot fakes and head fakes, all of which are important parts of his iso game. Most big men are simply not quick enough to position themselves to defend both his shot and drive.
The stop-start ability he displays with his hesitation dribble moves also shows up in his shiftiness inside the arc. He is a crafty ball handler that can put defenders in jail to make his finishing easier.
He is not a legitimate inside scoring threat yet, but he still manages to collapse defenses, kick out to shooters and dump off to bigs. Young needs to build strength before he can unlock his full finishing potential, but his willingness to create contact is a positive indicator. He draws plenty of fouls simply by being willing to get into defenders’ bodies.
In this clip, from a game against the Oregon Ducks in the PK80 tournament, he is attacking a bigger defender off the dribble. He gets into his body but cannot turn the corner, so he pulls back and hits a three.
Here, Young bumps his body into the defense to create space, force a contest and make a dump-off pass for a dunk. Even if it does not always end in a bucket (and it usually does not), for someone his size, his willingness to bang inside with bigger bodies bodes well for his transition into the league. He might not be Marcus Smart in terms of physicality, but he is clearly not contact-averse.
Another important part of his isolation game is his ability to quickly transition from dribble moves into his shot. This comes in stark contrast to his catch-and-shoot style, where his body motion transitioning into his shot is controlled and fluid but slow.
Against the Wichita State Shockers, he had back-to-back offensive possessions where he received a ball screen. The defense hedged both times, but his quick pull-up and deep range made it impossible for his defender to recover in time.
Even though the release is low, there is not much a defense can do when a ball handler makes recovering that difficult by spacing out so far and pulling up so quickly.
In the NBA, Young will face more defenders at the 4 and 5 capable of switching. He will also be unlikely to have an offensive scheme that allows him to hunt matchups with ball screens as often as Oklahoma’s does.
His shot is quick, but it requires more space than most, so he may encounter issues when trying to score against NBA teams prepared to switch or defend at the level of the screen. He will need to continue developing his handle, and improving his first-step burst would go a long way in improving his ability to create separation against longer and more athletic defenders.
That said, even if he cannot consistently get that shot off, simply drawing the defense out as far as he can will open up his team’s offense, and Young is more than capable of taking advantage of that with his playmaking.
Playmaking
Statistically, Trae Young’s playmaking numbers jump off the page perhaps even more than his scoring totals or efficiency.
His assist percentage, which measures the amount of his teammates’ made shots on which he assisted while on the floor, is a ridiculous 54.8. His turnover rate has climbed and currently stands at a relatively average 17 percent, but considering his sheer playmaking volume, that number is excellent.
Only three other players in Sports Reference’s database have posted assist percentages greater than 50: Kris Dunn, Jason Brickman and Darrian Ringo. That is not exactly a murderer’s row of point guards. But they all had significantly higher turnover rates and not nearly the scoring output and raw production of Young. Young is an outlier in terms of his raw productivity and efficiency.
He sees the floor like a true elite point guard prospect in both the halfcourt and full court. His downcourt passes are remarkable and he has nice touch on lobs and entry passes down low. He has high conversion rates on passes to roll men, cutters and spot-up shooters out of the pick-and-roll, generating at least 1.07 points per possession on each. He also has an outstanding 4.6 assist-to-turnover ratio in transition.
Young dropped 22 assists against the Northwestern State Demons. He can toss a perfectly-placed lob from 25 feet out while moving across the perimeter.
Speaking of passes on the move from way beyond the perimeter, check out this bounce pass through traffic to a cutter just seconds later.
Curry is the popular comparison, but if we are drawing hyperbolic similarities to future Hall of Famers, there is some Steve Nash in Trae Young’s game too. Watch here as he comes off a ball screen, shows a little shiftiness with a hesitation move, draws two defenders and dishes a no-look pass to the roll man.
His transition playmaking is impressive as well. He does an excellent job identifying when the defense slacks getting back or when his teammates hustle to get into scoring position. In this clip, he threads a bounce pass down court through multiple defenders for the assist.
Here is a bullet right-handed pass from well beyond the halfcourt line:
As opponents have begun to apply more pressure and traps, Young’s turnovers have inevitably increased.
His game against the West Virginia Mountaineers and the NCAA’s best point-of-attack defender, Jevon Carter, was an example of how he tends to lose his composure in these situations. As is the case with most young point guards, he tends to get sped up against tight defense, forcing tough shots, making overly-ambitious plays and losing the ball.
He still managed to score effectively in this game, but his playmaking took a dive.
Young committed eight turnovers and registered only five assists, partially due to West Virginia denying him the ball and forcing it out of his hands. He is not helped by the fact that Oklahoma lacks secondary ball handlers. But he will have to improve his composure in these situations.
Perhaps it should be encouraging that Young was able to score against a defense like West Virginia’s despite having little secondary creation to fall back on and Carter denying him off the ball. With more ball handlers or scorers on the floor, Young may have been able to use West Virginia’s pressure defense against itself, spreading it out and giving his teammates room to create.
If the only way to limit Young (to 29 points) is to use a scheme like this one, he should be fine at the next level because few NBA teams play full-court or trapping defense and he will likely share the floor with more capable shot creators.
Still, his nearly 40 percent turnover rate (per Synergy) in trapping situations raises concerns about his decision-making ability when defenses are keyed in on him.
Analyzing Fit
Point blank, the Orlando Magic need a point guard. Trae Young fits that bill. Easy decision, right?
It is a little more complicated than that. The main issue is there are very few surrounding pieces on this roster conducive to his success. The second is his limited size and poor defense do not seem to fit into the identity of the team Jeff Weltman and John Hammond want to build.
Young would fit best on a roster with a quality defender next to him in the backcourt, pick-and-roll weapons (like a rim-running big or pop threat) and shooters to space the floor. The Magic lack pretty much all of those things at this point.
He would either be tasked with an immense self-creation load in an offense that continues to struggle with spacing, or he would be forced to generate value without the ball, as a cutter or shooter off screens and spot-ups, which is not currently his forte by any stretch.
The Sooners may lack secondary creation, but they have multiple 40 percent 3-point shooters on the roster that gives Young ample space to operate inside the arc. They have players capable of finishing his passes on cuts, dump-offs and kick-outs and making help defense costlier.
Perhaps most importantly, they have an offensive scheme tailored to putting Young into advantageous situations. All of these things have led to his impressive counting stats.
A similar situation may exist in the NBA. But as much as they need a point guard, that is not where the Magic are right now.
Orlando Magic
Concerns about Young’s size and defense have been well-documented. But it is difficult to see how Young becomes anything but a liability on that end. He has shown decent anticipation skills, occasionally getting steals and deflections. But he does not have the size, strength or instincts to put up resistance against most offensive players. He will get stronger, but so will his opponents at the next level.
His off-ball attentiveness is also spotty. And he tends to freelance, helping off his man in hopes of making plays on the ball. He does not have the quickness or burst to help and recover, so he gets burned when he sags too much.
Additionally, he struggles to fight over screens, often turning pick-and-rolls and off-ball screens into low-resistance switches. All of these habits, while fixable, pose significant problems for team defense.
But his length is not fixable and given Hammond and Weltman’s draft history, may dampen the Magic’s enthusiasm about Young’s overall potential.
It is hard to discern who will or will not be on the roster next season. But it is safe to assume Young will not have the same astronomic 40 percent usage rate in his rookie year whether he is on the Magic or not.
Because he has not yet proven he can make an impact without the ball in his hands, because his defense will be a massive liability and because his on-ball impact will be both less efficient (because he will be a rookie in the NBA with an ill-fitting roster) and less voluminous (because he will be a rookie in the NBA with other point guards on the roster), his avenues for success in Orlando are fewer than they might be elsewhere.
Trae Young could certainly find heaps of success in Orlando in the long term, and the nominal fit makes sense. But this draft is full of well-rounded players at every position. Depending on where the Magic end up drafting and who is available, a player with more avenues for success — one who could contribute defensive and/or off-ball value early on — might make more sense.
All that said, when you draft in the top five, sometimes the best pick is simply taking the best player available regardless of fit. That could very well be Trae Young.
His scoring and creation equity make him one of the most tantalizing prospects in the 2018 draft class and would fill multiple needs for the Magic, even if he would personally be more successful elsewhere.
Next: NBA Draft Prospect Profile: Deandre Ayton
Only time will tell where Young ends up. But the Magic will, and should, have their eyes on him.