Mohamed Bamba is one of the greatest physical outliers to come out of the NCAA, which gives him a wide margin for error. But that alone will not be enough to propel him to NBA success.
With what would be the NBA’s largest recorded wingspan at 7-foot-9, Mohamed Bamba is long enough to envelop the entire restricted area almost without taking a step. He is long enough to recover for blocks when perimeter players beat him off the dribble. He is long enough to block shots in mid-air rather than at their release points, reducing rotation distances and making it easier to defend without fouling. And he is long enough to diagnose plays late but still be in a position to affect the play.
Get the idea?
He and Jaren Jackson Jr. have one major thing in common: for different reasons, they are able to swallow up plays that would be outside the radius of a normal player.
Think of them like baseball outfielders. The Minnesota Twins’ Byron Buxton uses his unique tools to snuff out offensive plays that against a replacement defender would be an advantage gained. If a normal outfielder covers a little less than one-third of the outfield, Buxton not only covers a full-third but might encroach on his teammates’ thirds, frequently making plays with a catch probability less than 10 percent.
The value of this is hard to properly appreciate without looking at his contributions from a bird’s-eye view and understanding that not only is he preventing one successful offensive conversion, he is also preventing that conversion’s potential domino effect on the defense.
In basketball, it might be a shot with higher expected value or the opening up of passing angles to shooters, compounding the magnitude of the initial advantage.
During the course of a full game or season, the impact above a replacement player is massive. It is often a combination of recognition, top-end speed and closing speed that allows an individual player to have a wider-than-average event horizon.
Similarly, Bamba and Jackson have unique tools that allow them to prevent offenses from gaining advantages or capitalizing on advantages that replacement players would not prevent.
But Bamba has a radius for defensive playmaking wider than average. All because of his wingspan.
This ability to affect plays beyond the ball and the individual’s primary coverage is what makes a defensive player not just good, but genuinely impactful. Both Jackson and Bamba have demonstrated that ability through different processes. But the question is who is more likely to continue doing so in the NBA regardless of what opposing offenses do schematically to minimize that impact.
Bamba’s offense remains a concern. His lack of elite explosion could be a red flag for his rim-running potential. But he is able to reach above the rim so quickly it might not matter. His abysmal assist and turnover numbers have also been a major point of criticism but his offensive awareness might not be as dire as they indicate.
Bamba’s intrigue is primarily as a defender. But he will need to also be an effective offensive player to be worth a top-five pick.
Defensive Strengths
Mohamed Bamba’s strengths on the defensive end are fairly obvious. His length drastically decreases the distance he needs to cover on trap-the-box rotations. This allows him to recover back more easily as well. It also makes it easier for him to recover when he bites on pump fakes. His defensive efficacy when defending within or around the painted area is off the charts.
Above is a textbook example of how easy it is for him to make this essential rotation for an NBA center.
Lagerald Vick drives the lane and Mohamed Bamba blocks his shot without even setting his feet on the right side of the restricted area. The shot was somewhat telegraphed, allowing him to load up a little more than usual. But that is another benefit of his ridiculous frame. Opponents simply do not see him coming because some of these blocks are impossible for most players.
His ability to block shots that far away from the release point also makes it easier for him to avoid fouling. His blocks to fouls ratio is elite at 1.4. When in position, he can completely drape himself over the restricted area.
On this play, he steps to the front to defend the initial drive, makes a short recovery to the receiver of the dropoff pass and uses his standing reach to smother a shot attempt without leaving the ground more than a few inches.
He naturally does not bite on too many pump fakes partially due to solid instincts and partially due to the fact he knows his quickness reaching above the rim affords him the ability to be patient.
His defensive impact is most pronounced around the hoop.
Per Will Schreefer’s NCAA play-by-play data, opponents shoot short two-pointers at a lower rate and lower percentage with him on the court versus off. Among the current top 23 big man prospects, he ranks in the 80th percentile in reducing opponent shot attempts near the rim but is in just the 55th percentile on impacting the field goal percentage of those shots.
He is a flawed perimeter defender, but his effectiveness belies his lack of high-level quick-twitch mobility. For many players, his length alone makes him impossible to score on.
Here you can see some of his awkwardness changing directions quickly, but his frame covers so much airspace it does not matter.
With a deeper 3-point line, more space and thus farther driving distances, his wingspan will not be enough by itself to make him an effective switch defender. But he can at least be a strong deterrent containing drives when he can sit down in a stance.
Bamba can slide his feet pretty well on the perimeter when defending drives from guards without much shake.
To draw on the popular, albeit hyperbolic, Rudy Gobert comparison, Gobert moves his feet faster, which helps him to cover longer distances and change directions more quickly. But Bamba has a lower center of gravity and more wingspan, which helps him contain smaller players moving laterally.
On this play he shows excellent agility, flipping his hips like a lockdown wing defender before sliding laterally to smother the initial drive.
He slightly bites on a ball fake, but only one foot leaves the ground so he is able to stay with his man. The second effort after the miss is lacking and ideally one would like to see him be more aggressive preventing the second shot attempt.
Unfortunately, the play ends with him getting bumped behind the rim and a second-chance opportunity, which brings us to his defensive weaknesses.
Defensive Weaknesses
Mohamed Bamba’s main selling point is his alleged upside as a generational rim protector. He may have Defensive Player of the Year potential, but it is important to note how he benefitted in college from the lack of spacing or defensive three-seconds rule.
On the above play against the TCU Horned Frogs, Bamba does not begin moving his feet to rotate until the driver has already made several long strides into the lane. But he erases the floater attempt, illustrating several key points about his defensive translation.
First, he does not have the same elite-level awareness Jaren Jackson Jr. does. Second, his awareness dropoff was not as detrimental in college because NCAA rules allowed him to patrol the paint for longer periods of time while his wingspan reduced the amount of distance he had to cover to affect shots. Only needing to move within the paint for many of his blocks rather than having to move across wider distances to the driver’s release point.
With NBA rules forcing him outside the restricted area for longer periods of time, these plays might become less frequent unless he demonstrates more high-level awareness or aggressiveness on his rotations.
Jackson is better at getting into position not just because of his awareness advantage, but also because of his superior speed and mobility going side-to-side and up-and-down, stopping and starting and changing directions with comparative ease.
Drawing back on the baseball comparison, Jackson’s mobility and awareness are what allows him to get to those plays with a sub-10 percent probability of being reached. Bamba simply cannot get to those plays with the same consistency. But he has greater efficacy in a smaller radius, perhaps having greater efficiency on erasing sub-50 percent plays.
An example of his efficacy against sub-50 percent plays comes here as he rotates down from the top-left of the restricted area to swallow up a shot coming from the right side of the paint.
It is not ridiculous to imagine another decent defensive big affecting that shot in some way, but few could do so emphatically. An average big might get into position to decrease the expected value of the shot by some percentage, but Bamba reduces it to nothing.
This block against the Nevada Wolfpack is nearly a counterexample against the mobility concerns, as he is able to rotate from covering a perimeter player to block a layup attempt — probably closer to a sub-10 percent play — with ease.
But this is only possible for him because he sinks down incredibly far off 34 percent 3-point shooter Jordan Caroline. Cheating off your primary coverages to help at the rim is fine as long as you can close back out if the driver finds the shooter, a pass good NBA players will often make especially on a spaced floor.
That question brings us to another important discussion point. Bamba’s struggles to cover larger swaths of ground are illustrated in part by his inability to close out to the perimeter. If the cost of that rotation is a wide-open three, how effective were you really at reducing the expected value of a drive?
That is visible here, where he is unable to react quickly and step out on Cody Martin’s jump shot.
The nature of drop coverage, as those are the shots that scheme deliberately concedes, may excuse Bamba’s complete non-reaction. But there is no roller or offensive player behind him that should prevent him from stepping out to prevent the open jumper or contain a potential drive.
Not being able to respond to multiple possible decisions from an offensive player is one of the costs of not being able to change directions quickly.
Another consequence of his suboptimal lower body power is his tendency to get bumped out of plays by drivers and other bigs.
He struggled to hold position when opponents get their body into him. Kansas Jayhawks’ center Udoka Azubuike managed to exploit this weakness during their Dec. 29 matchup, getting position with ease, backing him down when he went with power moves and grabbing six offensive rebounds in 29 minutes of work.
Here Azubuike seals Bamba out of the way for an easy two points.
But when Azubuike went to more finesse moves, like this sweeping hook shot, the result more frequently ended in Bamba’s favor.
Returning to the baseball analogy for a moment, his effect on shots around the rim illustrates how Bamba is far more effective than average players, and even Jackson, against sub-50 percent probability plays.
But his questionable movement skills make him far less likely to effectively reach the sub-10 percent probability. That is important to note when discussing the translation of his impact from college to the pros, where the rotation distances are longer, and from the regular season to the playoffs, where opponents will be more likely to play small, key in on his weaknesses and force him to cover longer distances.
If Bamba is drawn farther away from the basket, the value of reducing sub-50 percent probability plays within his radius becomes much lower, as those plays are now in the midrange rather than at the rim and have lower expected value for the offense. At the same time, Jackson’s ability to reach sub-10 percent plays becomes even more valuable.
In other words, with both player’s current skill sets, it will be easier for opposing offenses to limit Bamba’s impact radius to less valuable regions of the court than it will be to limit Jackson’s. But without strategically pulling him into these regions, Bamba’s impact radius is more valuable as it can almost completely eliminate the most valuable area of the court.
Mohamed Bamba will either have to gain significant lower body and core strength (like Hassan Whiteside did). Or he will have to learn how to derive power and quickness from his lower body more effectively and play with a stronger motor (like Rudy Gobert).
For him to continue impacting the game when opponents bring him away from the rim with forced switches and pick-and-pop bigs, he will need to find a way to cover ground better and close out on shooters better.
Otherwise, his weaknesses will be too pronounced for him to sustain productivity at the game’s highest levels. Offenses will be able to force him to make rotations out to and from the NBA 3-point line, where his length will not compensate for his clumsiness stopping and changing directions. But if he can find a way to make those improvements, he will have serious Defensive Player of the Year equity on a regular basis.
Rim Running
Mohamed Bamba probably will not be an offensive star. But if his defense translates, he will not need to be more than a pick-and-roll dive man — a role for which he is highly suited.
His massive lob catch radius is his main selling point. He can turn garbage into gold, reaching into the heavens to bring errant passes down into the basket.
He needs some improvement as a screener, particularly with timing and solidifying his base. But his long limbs give him a wide base that makes it easier for him to free his teammates and create advantages in the halfcourt.
While he is imperfect here, he does not look quite as lost as Deandre Ayton. He also might not be quite as explosive leaping from a standstill. But again, his reach compensates for those shortcomings, allowing him to finish comfortably even when the passes arrive late.
He is more than just a lob target, as he also has demonstrated the potential for making catches farther away from the basket and taking multiple dribbles before finishing.
In high school, he flashed the ability to pass on the move. But with the Texas Longhorns was not placed in the position to do so very often. Still, these are intriguing signs of him becoming a quality short-roll option, potentially capable of receiving the ball near the free throw line and making good decisions one day.
Bamba’s wingspan allows him to make some impressive finishes at the rim.
This play is also not a traditional pick-and-roll possession, but it does provide several insights. First, Bamba’s hands are good enough, not perfect. Second, he is capable of touch finishes in traffic, in no small part due to the fact that he can reach over almost any defender.
He finished the year achieving 1.067 points per possession on 16 rolls to the basket per Synergy, which grades as “below average” in their database. As is obvious from a cursory look at the film, that is a noisy stat.
Bamba clearly projects as a good pick-and-roll dive man. But not only is it a small statistical sample, the college game is just not nearly as conducive to volume or efficiency on those plays as the NBA’s spread pick-and-roll systems are.
On 24 possessions popping out of the pick-and-roll, he scored 0.667 points per possession, also below average.
He is a developing jump shooter. And clearly, the results are not there yet, as he shot 27.6 percent on threes, 68.1 percent from the line and 30.8 percent on 26 threes from NBA range. But the willingness to attempt threes is encouraging, and is sometimes enough to draw defenders out to the perimeter during the regular season.
There was a gradual uptick in his shooting percentages throughout the year, which may also be encouraging. But at this point, his shot is a part of his lower-probability offensive upside rather than his current skill repertoire.
Bamba has multiple routes to becoming a fearsome offensive weapon. His lob-catching ability is bankable, his screening and hands are good enough, he has an underrated diverse finishing arsenal and he has upside as both a driver and shooter.
The one major swing skill for him is whether he can make essential passing reads from a standstill or on the move, particularly on drives or short rolls.
Passing and Offensive Awareness
Coming out of high school, Mohamed Bamba was widely considered to be a good, versatile passer for his size. Now many believe passing and offensive awareness are his most glaring offensive weaknesses.
Jackson Hoy wrote an excellent article for The Stepien about his struggles and why they might not be completely what they seem.
The statistics alone would indicate Bamba is a historically terrible passer and offensive black hole. He has clearly demonstrated he is more than that, he just was rarely put into passing situations in college.
As Hoy explains, Mohamed Bamba often shared the floor with forward Dylan Osetkowski, who frequently handled the ball on the perimeter for Texas and acted as an offensive hub. He also often played with several other ball handlers, drastically limiting the scope and volume of his decision-making opportunities.
But he at least showed baseline levels of awareness and passing accuracy. Even if he was still prone to missing reads.
On the above play against TCU, he executes a simple drive and kick, popping after setting a screen, attacking a closeout with one dribble and passing back out to the perimeter.
That may not be the most advanced pass. But still, it is not a play you see from typical “black hole” big men that are virtually incapable of making good decisions with the ball.
If he manages to become a gravitational spot-up or pick-and-pop shooting threat, his drive-and-kick ability could show up more often and make him a highly impactful offensive player.
He does not make a pass here. But he shows himself a capable steward of the ball, receiving a handoff, beating his man and driving all the way to the rim.
It is possible his more pronounced height advantage at the high school level allowed him to see more passing angles than he could in college. But that would not fully account for the abysmal assist numbers Hoy highlights.
Speaking of those numbers, there was a gradual improvement in his assist-to-turnover ratio over the course of the season. Here he is side-by-side with Jaren Jackson Jr., whose trajectory was far more volatile:
That improvement is encouraging.
Another point Hoy raises is about the likely location of Bamba’s assists: from the post out to shooters. Texas simply did not have the shooting to convert those passes.
According to Hoop Math’s database, Bamba’s assists were skewed by nearly 22 percent toward 3-pointers relative to average assist locations, his team’s field goal attempt rates and his team’s assist locations. That is a large amount, even for a big man whose touches came primarily inside the arc.
It should then come as no surprise that his overall offensive game would be disproportionately hurt by being on a poor three-point shooting team.
Projecting Bamba to the NBA is instructive as an exercise extrapolating player performance out of league and team context. His passing is a perfect example of that. He has demonstrated capabilities he was unable to show on a consistent basis and that did not show up in the stats.
But he can at least be a functional part of an offense as a center. Perhaps he even has the chance to offer a little more than that as a driver and passer on the move.
Analyzing Fit
Mohamed Bamba would be a quintessential John Hammond pick, given his proclivity towards defensive prospects with impressive wingspans. The hypothetical Jonathan Isaac and Mohamed Bamba tandem would be intimidating on the defensive end. But the offense could be dire.
For all his upside and underrated aspects, Bamba needs to be in a spaced floor with a capable halfcourt initiator to be playable offensively. He is too raw as a shooter, ball handler and self-creator to find success any other way.
The same can be said to a lesser extent about Jonathan Isaac, who is clearly the better shooter and more adept ball handler but is nonetheless also very raw offensively and will not provide a meaningful amount of spacing or playmaking.
Aaron Gordon is an effective play finisher and has made strides as a passer. But he is still a very poor decision maker and regressed shooter that also needs more spacing and a good offensive initiator to thrive. Seeing a pattern?
Unless you believe at least two of those three can shoot well enough to draw defenders and make shots consistently, it is difficult to envision a team built around that frontcourt being able to score at a remotely efficient clip. That is even if both guard positions are filled with high-level shooters and scorers. The lack of spacing and high-level playmaking from more than one position creates an environment that damages the scoring efficacy of everyone involved.
The fit also depends on your belief in Bamba’s defensive mobility.
While he has looked really bad defending in space in certain situations — closeouts and changing directions forwards to backwards chief among them — he has also looked great sliding laterally, using his length to reduce recovery and rotation distances and flipping his hips.
If he can improve on some of those warts, the Orlando Magic could be in possession of the league’s most fearsome switching frontcourt, racking up deflections, blocks and steals in the process.
But if Bamba is unable to improve those movement skill deficiencies or at least compensate for them with motor, his defensive impact will not be translatable enough to offset the opportunity cost of once again not taking an elite initiator prospect that can shoot off the bounce.
That role has become a glaring need for this franchise. Without filling it in this draft, the team’s defense would have to be historically good over the next few years to make up for what would be a very ugly offense.
The bottom line is that drafting Bamba would be once again betting on a raw offensive prospect with high defensive upside.
Next: Ricky's NBA Draft Big Board
There is merit to doubling down on length and defense. But if the goal is to build a well-rounded team? It is hard to argue Mohamed Bamba would be the best option if initiators like Luka Doncic and Trae Young or two-way floor spacers like Jaren Jackson Jr. and Mikal Bridges are still available.