Jaren Jackson Jr. has risen from late-lottery prospect to the second or third best player in the 2018 NBA Draft. What would he look like on the Orlando Magic?
The definition of “unicorn” in NBA parlance has changed frequently since Kevin Durant used the term to describe Kristaps Porzingis two years ago. Is the long-limbed Giannis Antetokounmpo a “unicorn?” He is unique, but Durant used it to reference Porzingis’s almost unparalleled ability to protect the rim and consistently knock down threes.
For all the NBA big men expanding their offensive games out beyond the arc, few aside from Porzingis are balancing that with elite defensive contributions. Joel Embiid might be one, but 32.7 percent shooting is hardly elite. Myles Turner, Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol might have cases as well. But Ibaka and Gasol have declined sharply while Turner’s defense is more blocks than consistent value.
That leads to the introduction of the next potential mythical creature. Michigan State Spartans forward Jaren Jackson Jr.
Jackson shot 40 percent from three and 80 percent from the free throw line in his lone season in East Lansing. His peripheral shooting indicators predict him to shoot 37.6 percent in the NBA. He has made 44.8 percent of 58 attempts from NBA range this season.
He is also arguably the best defensive prospect in this class, albeit with a lower ceiling than physical outlier Texas Longhorns center Mohamed Bamba and his 7-foot-9 wingspan.
Jackson is a unicorn in the word’s original meaning. He is a highly mobile center with an intense approach to the game, defensive awareness that belies his age and plus versatility. His areas for improvement lie on the offensive end. But he has clear avenues to be an exceedingly valuable contributor there.
In ESPN’s most recent mock draft, the Atlanta Hawks take Jackson third overall, just one slot before the Orlando Magic. But if he does end up available when the Magic are on the clock, the allure of adding his elite motor and unique set of skills into a frontcourt with Jonathan Isaac and Aaron Gordon will be difficult to resist.
Without further ado, let’s dive into the film and numbers behind Jackson’s productivity.
Defensive impact
Jaren Jackson Jr. does not possess Mohamed Bamba’s ridiculous physical measurables. But he has a comparable effect on the game.
Where Bamba uses his sheer size to deter shots outside the effective radius of a normal big man, Jackson uses his quickness and instincts. His ability to cover ground in help defense without conceding too much to his primary coverages is particularly important as he was often forced to play power forward at Michigan State. Thus the defense drew him out to guard on the perimeter more than he would in the NBA.
On the play above, Jackson digs down from his primary assignment on the perimeter to block a shot under the basket. Notice how he does not fully commit to helping off his man until the driver commits to his dribble, takes a path that cuts off any reasonable pass-out angles and times the block perfectly.
Jackson’s ability to make lemonade out of lemons – racking up elite rim protection stats while frequently guarding opposing perimeter players – contrasts starkly with Arizona Wildcats big man Deandre Ayton’s defensive performance.
Ayton’s abysmal showing in the NCAA Tournament and poor defense overall has sometimes been excused as a product of him being forced to play out of position. There may be something to that.
But Jackson was also forced out of his natural role. Only one of the two looked completely helpless when forced to make decisions on defense.
Another contrast between Ayton and Jackson is the Jackson’s absurd motor. On a regular basis he battles through screens, makes multiple efforts and stays engaged both mentally and physically.
Here, Jackson is again guarding a perimeter player, this time on a baseline out-of-bounds play. He fights through a screen and manages to block his man’s jumper.
After an ugly-looking floater attempt after a nice spin move attacking a closeout, he chases Indiana Hoosiers’ Zach McRoberts 94 feet for a highlight reel block. Rather than stewing about the previous play’s result, he keeps his head down and stays in the play.
This is the kind of effort level Jackson brings on a night-to-night basis.
Here, he switches onto Juwan Morgan in the post and shows why he is such a fearsome interior defender despite his underwhelming size. He gets off the ground quickly, does not bite on multiple pump fakes and registers two blocks before tipping the rebound out.
In the NBA, many teams try to take elite traditional rim protectors out of the game by forcing them to switch onto shooters and guard them in the corners, drastically increasing the amount of ground they have to cover to make plays at the basket.
Jackson has the mobility to get over and make weakside rotations even if his man spaces all the way out.
His excellent timing, quickness off the ground and aggressive help instincts combined with his motor, awareness, quick-twitch mobility and top-end speed make him both a versatile man-to-man defender that can hold his own switching onto guards and an omnipresent help defender that offenses simply cannot scheme around.
Fouling or motor?
Fouling has been a major point of criticism for him all season long. He averages 5.9 fouls per 40 minutes and 8.6 per 100 possessions. Only 17 players in NBA history have fouled at that rate playing more than 20 minutes per game and none would be considered elite defenders.
But no players in NBA history have even come close to his steal and block rates of 8.1 blocks and 1.6 steals per 100 possessions. If his fouls, blocks and steals can all be defined as “defensive plays,” then the rate at which he accumulates defensive plays is unprecedented.
More important than his sheer volume of fouls is the fact his volume of blocks and steals is even higher. This is a product of his motor, mobility and aggressive help instincts.
The point is he fouls a lot not necessarily because he is sloppy. Rather it is because of the frequency with which he puts himself in position to make a play on the ball.
His ratio of steals and blocks to fouls, a relatively strong indicator for NBA defensive success, is better than Deandre Ayton’s and better than Duke Blue Devils big men Wendell Carter Jr. and Marvin Bagley’s. Along with 157 other prospects out of 189 total on my big board.
It is also important to note he will likely be the third-youngest player in this draft, behind only Missouri Tigers forward Jontay Porter and Ukrainian guard Issuf Sanon. He has plenty of time to improve that ratio even further and make easier to play at such a high level for longer stretches without getting into as much foul trouble.
Offense
Jaren Jackson Jr.’s areas for improvement lie on the offensive end. Despite encouraging improvements over the course of the season, he still looks uncomfortable making decisions with the ball.
He has shown flashes of touch on high-low passes,. But his overall timing and accuracy are both still relatively poor, as shown in this post-entry pass to Miles Bridges.
In a quintessential Jaren Jackson Jr. play from earlier this year, he turns it over on a handoff attempt but manages to recover for a chasedown block.
One of his biggest areas of growth this past year was his ability to attack closeouts. Once nothing more than a straight-line driver, he has now shown the ability to execute spin moves and dump-off passes
In the same game as the last clip, he receives the ball on the perimeter, beats his man off the dribble and dumps it off to Nick Ward before receiving it back for an and-one. He has room for growth as a playmaker but he has shown encouraging signs making decisions on the move.
If he never becomes more than a straight-line driver attacking closeouts, he still has a mean first step. Combined with the threat of his jumper, it can lead to some highlight-reel rack attacks.
Despite the flashes of improvement, his assist-to-turnover ratio ended up standing at a meager 0.63 for the season, with a ratio of 0.57 in the first half and 0.72 in the second half of the year. He has only taken four jumpers off the dribble. At this point there is little evidence to suggest he can become a dynamic creator like Kristaps Porzingis has. But his improvement trajectory also suggests he will not be a black hole.
It seems likely he will become nothing more or less than a valuable support piece on offense that can stretch the floor and beat closeouts. But his ceiling is higher than that based on what he has shown in terms of passing on the move.
His low efficiency finishing at the rim has been another point of concern, but as The Stepien’s Mike Gribanov explains, those numbers can be misleading as they lack context. He is not an elite below-the-rim finisher. But Jackson is an explosive leaper whose numbers would certainly look a lot better had his team put him in the position to catch lobs or rim-run.
Analyzing Fit
Let’s get one thing out of the way. The Orlando Magic sorely need some level of efficient shot creation and drafting Jackson would not fill that need.
Drafting Jackson would be doubling down on a defensive identity while still leaving room to add a ball-dominant player and fitting with Jonathan Isaac and Aaron Gordon on both ends.
A frontcourt with Gordon, Isaac and Jackson would be able to switch all five positions while offering weakside rim protection ability from multiple areas. Isaac and Jackson are both high-motor players who could help improve the team’s defensive culture. If that trio can hit their primes together, it will be very difficult for anyone to score on that team.
The offensive fit is a little less exciting, but it still makes a lot more sense than the fits with Missouri forward Michael Porter or Duke forward Marvin Bagley. The Isaac and Gordon duo clearly need to play with a stretch five due to their shooting limitations. Jackson can provide that without sacrificing anything defensively.
There will still be no clear source for off-the-bounce creation, which is a reasonable cause for concern. That need can be temporarily patched up in free agency. But the long-term solution would still be very much in flux.
As Magic fans have witnessed this season, lacking a steady scoring or creation option can lead to players being forced into roles they are unsuited to fill. That can lead to ugly offense and bad habits developing.
Whether the Jackson fit for the Magic is appealing might depend on the direction you think the team should take.
If you want the team to double down on defense, Jackson makes as much sense as anyone else in this year’s class. But if you think the need for a long-term creation option is simply too great to ignore in yet another draft, then Oklahoma Sooners guard Trae Young (or Sloevnian guard Luka Doncic of course, if he’s available) might be more attractive.
One could also argue that for this team, intangibles are an even bigger need than creation.
Next: Orlando Magic Daily Podcast: Preparing for the future
Jackson is always fully engaged, an intense competitor and a hard worker to boot. The Magic need to be seeking players like him out if the culture is to improve.