The Orlando Magic’s Summer League run is over and the depths of the offseason is in front of us.
That means we get nearly three months of hype for the upcoming season. That alone usually would be enough to tide us over and have us frothing at the mouth.
This offseason feels different. After a historic rookie season from Paolo Banchero and a strong finish to the season, there is this weird thing called hope deeply embedded in the Magic this offseason.
The Magic were the last team eliminated from postseason contention in the Eastern Conference last year and they are young with players who are good now and conceivably could be even better very quickly. Orlando indeed feels like a young team on the rise.
That does not mean the Magic are not a team without some major questions. Major questions.
The Orlando Magic are looking ahead to a much-anticipated 2024 season where there will be a lot of growth. And a lot of questions for this young team to answer.
The team’s young roster is loaded with players who still have a long way to go to get better. And the team is going to have to start making decisions on several of them soon. This is a loaded roster where everyone indeed is going to have to earn their spot in this year’s rotation and beyond.
This is a season to discover who fits and what the team needs to win at a higher level. Orlando hopes playing “better basketball” and “leveling up” once again will result in a postseason berth. That is the natural byproduct of the team’s internal development. But this season is about figuring out what works and what does not and who stays and who goes.
It is going to be a high-pressure season even the Magic organizationally are trying to limit the pressure they are putting on their young team.
There is a lot to get to and a lot of it will play out on the court once the team gathers again in October. All we can do is sit and think about the problems the season will present.
That is precisely what we did. Wednesday evening I did a live mailbag episode for Locked On Magic and answered some of the pressing questions you surely have about the Magic and the upcoming season.
The questions were solid. And a lot of them deserve a lot more attention and more detailed answers than I could give off the top of my head without preparation. So that is what I am going to do here.
You can watch the episode above and get all the answers — and those answers are good, if not a bit rambling. But I wanted to dive into a bit more detail with a few of them here as we start outlining the big questions the Magic will face ahead of training camp and a whole lot more.
This is going to be a fun season with a lot of growth ahead. And Magic fans should be very excited about what is coming up for this team.
Orlando Magic Daily Mailbag Vol. 42
Over/Under
"DraftKings says the Magic will win more games than last year and miss the playoffs. What are your thoughts? – Davie Erickson on YouTube"
This is actually a really interesting question.
As of Friday evening, DraftKings has the Orlando Magic sitting at an over/under of 36.5 wins. That has them tied for 10th with the Indiana Pacers (the Atlanta Hawks at over/under 42.5 wins is a choice and the Brooklyn Nets at over/under 37.5 wins is flirting with trouble).
At least as a betting proposition, I think the Magic are likely to hit their over — remember the team just won 34 games despite a 5-20 start, so 36 seems like a floor. And as a standings predictor, this at least suggests the Magic are going to be in the postseason conversation.
I personally think the Magic and Pacers will be better than the Hawks and Nets. While I still do not know what to make of the Toronto Raptors and have enough faith in the top end of the Chicago Bulls’ roster to put them in the postseason conversation, there is at least plenty of room for the Orlando Magic to be a postseason team.
I will say this unequivocally: The Magic should be a postseason team this year. I expect them to be in the postseason. I do not know whether they will be in the first Play-In Tournament game or the second, but I think they will accomplish that goal.
However, I do not want to foreclose the idea that the Magic can have a “successful” season without making the postseason. The goal should be to get better and even in falling short, I think the Magic can learn what they need to get over that hump.
Still, results matter. And the Magic need results to matter more. So I think the Magic are going to hit that over and I think they will make the postseason this year.
Orlando Magic Daily Mailbag Vol. 42
Mapping the rotation
"What are your thoughts on who will be the starting 5 and the rotation that he will use -David Erickson on YouTube"
The starting lineup for the Orlando Magic is not super complicated to figure out.
We already know four of the starters — Markelle Fultz, Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero and Wendell Carter. We may have more questions about those players and maybe even how they all fit together after the season and after (hopefully) a playoff series, but that is what this season is for figuring out.
Whenever I am asked this question — and I am asked it a fair amount — the starting lineup the question is really about who should start at shooting guard.
For now, I still like Gary Harris. He brings consistency. He defends well. And he does not need the ball in his hands, so he is not taking shots away from others.
I think the Magic need to find a way to get Harris more shots — he averaged 8.3 points per game and shot 43.1 percent on 4.5 3-point attempts per game. Getting him to five or six 3-point attempts per game would go a long way.
The Magic were fairly successful with him on the floor. But the Magic also had a lot of success with Jalen Suggs in there too.
I think the Magic will have something of an open and continuing competition for that starting shooting guard spot. I think Harris has the edge just because of his veteran know-how and consistency. But Suggs is definitely the higher-upside play and he can certainly earn his place.
"Who will be the starting guards in two years? I’m hyped for AB personally. -creepyypaper, on YouTube"
Of course, I will say this repeatedly and probably still annoy some Orlando Magic fans with it, this season is not entirely about this season. yes, the Magic should have postseason aspirations, but making or missing the playoffs is not the goal for this team.
This team wants to see growth and exit the season knowing clearly who fits and who does not fit this team’s future and which players they need to build around and what skills they still need to fill.
Orlando obviously drafted Anthony Black and Jett Howard, so their futures are seemingly safe for now. As long as they look like they can contribute and keep developing, they have seats reserved for the ascent.
So while I think both Black and Howard have difficult paths to carve out consistent minutes unless they are much more ready than we believe this year (see the next slide), I think both are part of the team’s future.
Predicting who will be on this team in two years though? Even with Jeff Weltman’s predilection for keeping things the same and valuing continuity, I am not sure we can say for sure who will be on this team for the long term.
I want to believe the Magic will retain Markelle Fultz. But that is as much protecting an asset or creating a tradeable player moving forward as it is valuing him as the team’s starting point guard. Whether he is someone the team can build around and use as its point guard is something that will reveal itself in the postseason more than anywhere else.
There are a lot of players we can say that about.
Would Black be someone who steps up into that role if it opens? Perhaps he will in the next two years.
As for the other guard spot. I am on the record as a Gary Harris defender. But I would probably agree that Harris is not on the team past this year and the expiration of his contract. The conditions for this team to make a trade is very present.
But while I like Jalen Suggs a lot, I am not quite there yet to hand him the starting spot. He has to earn it and prove himself. And this year is a pressure-packed one for the young guard.
If there is still any place where the Magic could look to consolidate players and build their starting lineup it is at shooting guard. And while you cannot predict what the trade market will look like, this is where I would suspect the Magic strike (there or center, which is another discussion entirely).
Orlando Magic Daily Mailbag Vol. 42
Future Development
"How much time can we realistically expect Black to get a game? I assume he’s going to be behind Fultz on the depth chart and fighting for time with Suggs and Cole. -Jordan on YouTube"
That debate is only part of the equation.
This is an extremely crowded backcourt with Markelle Fultz, Cole Anthony, Jalen Suggs and Anthony Black all capable of handling the ball. Gary Harris, Jett Howard, Caleb Houstan and Kevon Harris can play the shooting guard spot.
And a lot of those players could also slide over to the small forward spot.
At this point, it feels like the quartet of Fultz, Harris, Suggs and Anthony will eat up most of the minutes at the guard spot. That could very well leave Anthony Black — and Jett Howard — without the clearest path to playing time.
Part of me believes that Orlando’s Summer League team was built intentionally small to learn the weak spots of such lineups when they get to the regular season.
Whatever the case, it feels like the Magic will have options to mix and match lineups and the ability to experiment some — Joe Ingles can probably play at either forward position too.
And that is going to make it difficult to say just how many minutes Black might get. He certainly is not going to be guaranteed minutes. I think he will fight for time at small forward and certainly if there are injuries, his versatility will be valuable.
But how many minutes will that be? Last year, Suggs and Harris essentially split the shooting guard minutes evenly. Franz Wagner played 32.6 minutes per game. That would leave somewhere near 16 minutes for Black, Howard and Ingles.
It is hard to see with a fully healthy rotation that Black would get all of those minutes. With injuries, it would be easy to see Black averaging around 15 minutes per game. But he is likely going to settle for 10-12 minutes per game to start the season with the chance for more or less as the team narrows its rotation.
It is probably going to be important to make sure Black is in lineups with two of Anthony, Ingles and Harris to ensure there are shooters around him to hide some of his own shooting struggles.
But, let me put it this way: The Magic are going to have to make some difficult decisions regarding their rotation and some important players might find themselves outside of the normal playing group.
At least this team is finally well-covered for injuries.
"What role do you see Jett Howard having in his rookie season? -HankPank on YouTube"
Similar to Anthony Black, I think Jett Howard is going to have to earn every minute he gets this season. There is space for one or both of these rookies to play, but there is just as easily no space for them too. They might get some rookie leeway to make some mistakes. But at the end of the day, they have to prove themselves on the court.
In this way, I am a bit against the grain. I actually think there is a better chance Howard is going to contribute more as a rookie than Black.
His shooting is just so valuable. And while I think Black could be a valuable and versatile defender — and that is something the Orlando Magic certainly value — Howard’s shooting just might be more valuable.
For rookies, I am usually for keeping things really simple overall.
I expect the Magic will make Black’s role simply be about his defense and less about his point guard skills. They will want him to control the pace when he has the ball, but his main role for this team will be to be a chaos agent on defense — especially with the other strong defenders in Jalen Suggs and Jonathan Isaac coming off the bench.
For Howard, I think the Magic will ask him to be a shooter. Ultimately his success in this league will come down to whether he can shoot it. So Orlando will let him be that kind of a player, whether that is keeping him in stand-still catch-and-shoot situations or working plays to try to leverage his gravity to pull defenses apart.
Simplicity is the key for rookies to succeed. So the Magic should focus on the core skills of these players and then grow them out from there.
Orlando Magic Daily Mailbag Vol. 42
Level Up
"What are expectations for Jamahl this year? -Ed Lamoso on YouTube"
There is no bigger flash point among Orlando Magic fans last year than the work of Jamahl Mosley.
Fans who were eager to see the team win more were often frustrated with some of his rotation decisions and how he managed games.
Nobody will find any complaint in the front office about him. Or with his team though.
The job Mosley did last year was really incredible. To hold a young team together after a 5-20 start and keep them pushing to get better and then actually delivering some results does deserve a lot of credit. Everyone on this roster believes in Mosley — and his inclusion in the Team USA program is only further proof of the job he is doing.
But just as he and the franchise are calling on the players to “level up” and get better, the same has to be said for Mosley. He too needs to “level up.”
For the players, that task is simple. It is to play smarter and cleaner basketball, executing at a higher level and committing fewer turnovers.
For Mosley, this year is still about emphasizing development. He still has to allow young players to make mistakes and allow Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner especially to explore the limits of their games.
But this season is also about making better tactical decisions that put the team in positions to win. It means making decisions with winning as a bigger goal than giving young players their chance to play the roles the Magic ultimately view them as playing.
Last year, Mosley was an expert at keeping the big picture in mind. That helped the team work toward peaking at the end of the season and playing more consistently. That also meant putting the ball in Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner’s hands late in games when Markelle Fultz might have been the better option if winning was the goal.
This is where the team might have to see a bit of a shift this season. Mosley has to put his team in a better position to win this year because results are going to start mattering here very soon.
Orlando Magic Daily Mailbag Vol. 42
Paolo’s Future
"Seattle and Las Vegas were reportedly promised expansion teams. What do you think of that and Paolo Banchero? Given the situation with Washington and Duke and Italy and USA teams? I am a little worried about it -Daniel Hidalgo on YouTube"
This is not the first time I have heard this concern. It is deeply embedded in Orlando Magic fans to worry about their superstars rejecting the franchise and the city and moving on.
We saw that with Shaquille O’Neal when he suddenly departed Orlando for Los Angeles in 1996 — that was about a lot of different things including the Magic’s misjudgment of the growing sports contract market, a quirk in the CBA and O’Neal’s desire for a bigger market.
We saw that when Tracy McGrady asked out of Orlando at the peak of his powers in 2004 — a disagreement with the current general manager and poor roster management throughout his tenure led to that.
And we saw that when Dwight Howard asked out of Orlando in 2011 — again, poor roster management and perhaps a player looking for a bigger market.
That concern is always going to be in the background. And each of those three exits was really bitter. Magic fans want to find a star to call their own who can not only perform on the court and in the community but bring championships.
Paolo Banchero is the exact player the Magic have been waiting for a decade for. He looks like someone the team can build around.
With the noise — and it is still just noise even if it feels inevitable — that his hometown Seattle will get an NBA team rightfully returned to them, there are a lot of Magic fans concerned that Banchero will force his way there at some point.
That indeed might happen. But it would not be a good business decision at least not yet.
For a player’s rookie contract and the first extension, the drafting team has all the advantages. It is not just about having restricted free agency rights (something that the Magic did not have in 1996 with O’Neal), it is having the max extension rights that Banchero is surely going to net. That part is hard to predict with Banchero’s rise uncertain and the rise of the salary cap after the new TV deal also fairly uncertain.
The simple way to think of it is this: The Magic have eight years to show Banchero they can build a championship team around him. After those eight years, it will be up to him to decide whether to re-invest with the Magic or move on elsewhere.
And eight seasons (we are one season into those eight) is plenty of time to let a player of Banchero’s caliber decide whether this franchise is where his future is just as much as it is plenty of time for the Magic to make their decision.
A lot can happen in eight years, not just on the court but off the court too. Orlando will become at least a second home if Banchero makes it through all eight years — the four-year rookie contract and a four-year extension.
Having said that, if Banchero has his heart set on playing in Seattle, that is what he is going to do. There is no changing that.
We are watching Damian Lillard try to dictate where he plays while he is still under contract and with seemingly no leverage. That deal is hitting some gears, but everyone seems to know that it will happen eventually.
And ultimately star players like the kind we think Banchero can decide where they want to play and sometimes when they want to play with them. And the Magic may not have much of a choice in it.
So, it is not something to worry about. It is an abstraction at this point. The Magic should be focused on building the best team they can and give him every reason to stay committed to this franchise.
Orlando Magic Daily Mailbag Vol. 42
Center Questions
"Do you think keeping Goga is underrated? Our defensive rebounding was terrible last year. -J Cross on YouTube"
Entering this offseason, I believed the Orlando Magic could keep only one of Goga Bitadze and Moe Wagner. I just view them both as third-string centers. They can both serve as backups but I do not want them starting very much.
This was a big priority for me in the offseason because Wendell Carter has never played more than 62 games in any season. I think even on the optimistic side, the team needs to plan on Carter missing at least 15 games.
Those 15 games might be the difference between making and missing the postseason.
The Magic did not meaningfully address this. They kept both Bitadze and Wagner. So they will work with what they have.
But I share your concerns about the rebounding.
The Magic statistically were a fine rebounding team — they finished eighth in the league in defensive rebound rate at 73.0 percent. But of those 27.0 percent of possessions where they gave up an offensive rebound, opponents scored 13.5 second-chance points per game (15th in the league).
This may not be as urgent a problem as figuring out how to reduce 3-point attempts, but it is a concern. And the Magic will need to be a better rebounding team for sure.
This is where Goga Bitadze can help. I do think keeping him has been a bit overlooked.
He had a really strong finish to the season. He gave the team some much-needed interior toughness and shot-blocking. It was just a different element than the Magic had before.
More than that, the Magic had a 104.8 defensive rating with Bitadze on the floor. That was the best mark for the team, including better than Jonathan Isaac’s 107.7.
It will be interesting to see if the Magic can get some more offense out of Bitadze now that he has some time under his belt. But for those games that Carter might miss, I would honestly expect Bitadze to fill in those center minutes for now.
"Does the Magic not addressing the backup 5 in free agency indicate that they are confident in JI’s recovery? -HankPank on YouTube"
I do not know if confidence in Jonathan Isaac’s health has much to do with the backup 5 spot. The Orlando Magic are going to experiment plenty and I would expect them to try lineups with Paolo Banchero or Jonathan Isaac at center just as they may try lineups with Franz Wagner at the 2 (with Anthony Black for a super jumbo lineup?). This is going to be a season of experimentation.
But I do believe the Magic have a lot of faith in Isaac’s health this year.
Orlando did not meaningfully upgrade their reserve options at forward considering Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner share the floor for roughly two-thirds of their minutes. I think the Magic want to continue that.
That means their options at the 4 are either going big with Moe Wagner, relying on Jonathan Isaac or Chuma Okeke or sliding Joe Ingles or Jett Howard to the position. You have to love the flexibility this roster provides and hope Jamahl Mosley has the creativity to use it.
But to me, Isaac is far and away the best option of these. And if Isaac is not healthy, they are going to have a lot to sort through and figure out to fill in those minutes.
This is all setup, in other words, for Isaac to play and have a major role on this team if they want to keep their positional versatility and size on the floor.
The fact the Magic did not spend its free agency, trade or draft capital to improve the backup forward spot makes me believe they have full faith Isaac will play the majority of games this year and be able to contribute.
Eleven games is hardly a sample size to bank on, but Isaac played well last year in his minutes. Impressively well considering how long he was out. So maybe that is faith that can be rewarded.
Orlando Magic Daily Mailbag Vol. 42
Roster Choices
"Should we have kept Bol Bol over Chuma Okeke? It was like rookie year for Bol and he showed us more than Chuma in less amount of time. -J Cross on YouTube"
This was an interesting roster choice, and I definitely believed there was at least a chance the Orlando Magic might cut bait on Chuma Okeke once their roster was filled out. To the point in the previous slide, I would have a little bit more faith in Bol Bol at power forward than Chuma Okeke in case Jonathan Isaac was out.
Still, the discourse around Bol being some sort of steal for the Phoenix Suns (he might be) has been a bit jarring. There are a lot of people who did not get the full Bol experience.
Bol is a very talented player. The highlights show that. And the Magic gave him his first real opportunity to play. That was something he desperately needed. And he took advantage of it in a very real way.
Of course, once the Magic ate up Bol’s playing time and brought him off the bench, he really started to struggle. His inconsistency in the half-court against smaller defenders and his inattentiveness on defense even with his ability to block shots became hard to stomach.
It says a lot that as the Magic started to care more about winning that Bol became a player they did not trust.
Still, Bol had a better season than Okeke. Okeke has simply struggled to find any rhythm on the court. And while he is reliable defensively and not someone who will make mistakes in rotations, his offense just has never come around in the way everyone anticipated after his time at Auburn.
If this were a pure basketball decision, I think I would have kept Bol over Okeke.
But this was also a financial decision.
Orlando had a non-guaranteed contract with Bol for $2.2 million. Cutting him meant they paid nothing. Okeke still has $5.3 million owed to him for this upcoming season.
Cutting Okeke and keeping Bol would have been a $7.5 million decision. Sometimes the finances of the league win out even when a team is well positioned financially in terms of the cap as the Magic are.
I think that was simply the impetus of this decision.
Thank you everyone who joined our live show on Wednesday. I hope to do more of those shows in the future. And as always, you can contact the site on Twitter @OMagicDaily or by e-mail at omagicdaily@gmail.com. I am always available to answer your questions.