The Orlando Magic season may have been lost a long time ago. The decisions the Magic are having to make in the coming weeks might have been inevitable anyway. The team is certainly at the crossroads and staring down its future and needing to make it.
The team has seemingly wound its course with this group. The team finally reached the playoffs with a fairly young roster, only for that youth to get taken away thanks to injury, leaving a team that is a husk of what it should or could be.
And this might have been a fair way to describe last season with Jonathan Isaac missing most of the season with a knee injury. Only then for him to tear his ACL when the season resumed inside the bubble at Disney.
It is fair to ask what is the potential of this team without Isaac. And then Markelle Fultz, another pillar of the franchise’s future, going down with a similar torn ACL gutted the franchise even further. The team’s future is on the shelf and on pause.
Nikola Vucevic’s emergence as an All-Star has been a nice story. But the team, already down two starters, has faced injuries to every other starter on the roster — including fill-in starter James Ennis! There is no way for this team to function properly in this instance.
The team’s record has been predictable in that sense. The team is still fighting. But it is hard to see them overcoming all these circumstances.
The Orlando Magic face several big questions as the trade deadline approaches. And we are going to answer a few of them in our regular mailbag.
But this season is not the important one. It never was, especially when Isaac and Fultz went out.
Even with them in there, while the team certainly would have liked to see the Magic push their way toward the top half of the Eastern Conference, this year was always about the future.
This season was always going to be about beginning the transition from the era led by Rob Hennigan’s holdovers and Jeff Weltman putting his true imprint on this season beyond the infrastructure and coaching he built.
With Evan Fournier’s expiring contract and the contracts for Aaron Gordon and, to some extent, Nikola Vucevic winding down, the team would have the chance to begin shaping the team the way they want to see it develop and grow into the future.
Even with how poor this season has turned out, the team can still do that. The difference now is they likely are adding a high draft pick to the equation.
The clear vision now then is that this team will build around Isaac, Fultz and that draft pick. Vucevic’s All-Star turn likely makes him a part of the short-term future as a stabilizer while those players grow and develop into the team’s future stars. Everything else is up in the air.
That does not mean the path is not fraught with peril. The Magic have to be smart with the moves they make and intentional with the players they acquire.
Orlando is spending its time trying to reset its floor and make sure the team is back in playoff contention next year to regain the track they lost because of injury.
That path starts this year with the trade deadline and going into the offseason.
With the trade deadline quickly approaching, the future is going to be in focus. It is the only thing that matters. So it is time to open up the Orlando Magic Daily Mailbag and see what is on your mind as this important date approaches.
From Ryan Hull, via Facebook
"7th highest payroll in the NBA, and to be this bad. Something is majorly wrong."
I see this complaint fairly often.
The Orlando Magic currently have the seventh-highest payroll in the league at $136.3 million. They are bumping up against the luxury tax line of $136.6 million.
Asking why the Magic have not cut a player to sign another player through all these injuries? This is why. The Magic do not want to be a tax-paying team. It makes no sense. And it is possible Orlando could spend some of this trade deadline trying to slash payroll a bit.
But most of the conversation around the team’s payroll usually centers on this logic: The teams with the highest payroll should be competing for the championship.
There is something to that. Only teams competing for championships should be in the luxury tax. That part makes sense. And the Magic are right to avoid it — although, as noted above, criticism of hovering this close to the line is certainly warranted.
But this logic is also fairly flawed. Especially for teams that have put their money in young players.
The Magic have mostly hit this number because they have re-signed their own young players. Giving Nikola Vuceivc a four-year deal and Aaron Gordon a four-year deal clogged the books some. But those were both players the team could not afford to lose, unless it was signaling a clearer rebuild. The same goes for Terrence Ross and his four-year deal.
Orlando Magic
The Magic did not want to turn back, especially after that 2019 breakthrough, so they decided to play their fortunes by leveraging their cap room a bit.
The dream, as it were, is to be able to consolidate some of these players into the “big star” that can change the franchise. The dream, for example, would have been to watch Gordon develop into a near-star and then cash him in for the player that might complete the roster.
In order to move for big contracts, the team must have big contracts it can move out.
While the debate about whether the Magic should have pursued Russell Westbrook this offseason was a pretty clear one for this team and its long-term development, the fact the Magic were even considered in those conversations was a sign of why the Magic’s cap position was advantageous to them.
Orlando had the salaries to get to Westbrook’s $30-million contract number. That is the position the team is trying to be in.
Obviously, the risk then is what happens if those players do not turn into stars? What happens if those players peter out and you are not able to cash in for higher value?
That is where the Magic are at. And so the investment in Gordon, especially, has not worked out as intended. With Isaac and Fultz extensions set to kick in next season, the Magic will have to make some financial decisions to remain in a solid cap situation.
They are likely going to have to accept pennies on the dollar for Fournier and the goal of that deal might be to get one player worth keeping and salary flotsam the Magic can quickly jettison (either in a trade or in the buyout market). That is the kind of deal that was on the table it seemed for Fournier in the offseason anyway (more on that in a later question).
Gordon might end up being the same deal. And that only puts more pressure on Fultz and Isaac to become impact players.
The comfort of the Magic’s upcoming top-10 pick likely cushions this fall.
But that circles back to the larger point. The issue the Magic face is not their high payroll. Really only Al-Farouq Aminu is the only “dead weight” contract on the team that is not giving the team something in return for a heavy investment (and he has only one more year left on his deal after this one).
Rather, the issue is the players the Magic invested in did not develop quickly enough to help the team land a star in a trade.
As much as I love Vooch, I am beginning to rethink my stance on keeping him. He has the most trade value he will ever have, so maybe it is time to get what we can for him. Young players and draft picks, then trade Evan and AG.
— Jerry (@BlueHerron3) March 6, 2021
Any time a team has a season like this where the bottom completely falls out surprisingly, they have to assess and ask why this happened and how to prevent it from happening again. Or to push the reset button completely and start over.
The Orlando Magic likely look at this season and say the issue was injuries. The Magic have been down at least three projected starters for the better part of the season and on some nights four starters. Even fill-in starter James Ennis has missed significant time.
This was not the team’s vision at all. And they can hope for better health and a sense of what this team really is next year — all with the parting gift of a high draft pick for their troubles.
Even with that extenuating circumstance, the Magic should still have a sense of what their team’s weaknesses are and how they want to fix them. The goal for the Magic from last offseason heading into this offseason is to start building the team they want to be in the future.
And that should be the focus entering the trade deadline.
The biggest trouble for the front office is trying to extract the most value for their players. Evan Fournier’s contract expiring will likely lower the price of what the magic will accept to make a deal. But for players like Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic, there is definitely a sense the Magic are listening intently.
After a season like this, nothing should be off the table. And even with the season Vucevic has had, the team should be listening to offers for him. The rumors that have trickled out suggest the Magic are keeping tabs on the market and not hanging up.
Pippen Ain't Easy
For sure, Vucevic’s value is not likely going to be higher than it is right now. That instinct is correct. The Magic have a two-time All-Star in his prime and playing his best basketball. That should net them a whole lot.
Orlando is right to listen. But the team is also right to ask a lot. The Magic have the star everyone is hunting in Vucevic. And they have to think about how they want to build their team.
This is not to say Vucevic is a part of the team’s long-range plans. He is a good transitionary figure to give the team a consistent offensive option while other players around him grow and mature. It is hard to say that Jonathan Isaac or Markelle Fultz are ready to take the reins as the team’s leading scorer. And especially coming off a major injury, the Magic should not foist that role on them.
So the Magic are right to sit, wait and demand a lot. To me, the Magic should only move Vucevic if they get a very high draft pick, a star player or a young player clearly on the path to stardom. Nothing that has come out yet has suggested that is on the table.
From Jonathan Leonard via e-mail
"Odds we keep Fournier (expiring contract) and let him walk at the end of the season OR trade him before the deadline and get players/picks in return?"
The most urgent trade and roster decision the Orlando Magic face this season is involving Evan Fournier.
Fournier’s five-year, $85-million is set to expire at the end of the season. It feels unlikely the Magic would re-sign him — going back to our conversation on the team’s payroll, the Magic have $104.4 million committed to next season. That does not include the team’s draft pick (which could be around $12 million if it is the top pick) and Al-Farouq Aminu likely picking up his player option worth $10.2 million.
In other words, the Magic are likely right back near the luxury tax without the same $17 million to spend to re-sign Fournier this offseason. Unless they plan on making some other maneuvers, the Magic would be in danger of going over the luxury tax line if they opted to re-sign Fournier.
So the odds of trading Fournier are going to be pretty high. I would put them at 3-to-1 at this point. The only thing that might hold it back is Fournier’s injury — right now he is out with a strained groin and he has dealt with back spasms throughout the year.
Fournier is still having a career season though. If he can put those injury issues behind him, he would certainly help a contending team with his floor spacing and ability to attack closeouts.
Daily Knicks
Fournier is averaging 18.5 points per game on a 54.3-percent effective field goal percentage. He has been fairly consistent this year when healthy and a big part of why the Magic have stayed on the periphery of the playoff race despite the massive injuries the team has faced.
Trading him would almost certainly put a fork in those dreams (if they are not already cooked as is).
The Magic should be trying to get whatever they can for him. But it is important the team extract one player who can play a role for the team beyond this season. The deals that seemed on the table for Fournier during the offseason involved a straight salary dump or low-level draft picks.
During the offseason, the Magic were not interested in those deals as they were still trying to compete for and contend for the playoffs. That calculus might have changed now.
The dream should be to pull off a deal similar to the Arron Afflalo-for-Evan Fournier deal they pulled off when Fournier arrived in Orlando in 2014. If the Magic can find an underused young player who needs a chance for bigger minutes, that would be a huge success for the team.
From Paul King IV via e-mail
"Why didn’t the Magic make a deal prior to the NBA draft? The Warriors were shopping the number 2 pick, in which we could have packaged Evan Fournier who has been inconsistent for years, AG has yet to pan out, and Mo Bamba who can’t get on the floor for Wiggins and number 2 pick and draft LaMelo ball. Wiggins would give you the consistent scorer you need on the first unit to complement Vooch. LaMelo Ball had star potential all over him to play in backcourt with Fultz. That’s what I would have done if I was GM."
I am not a huge fan of playing the what-if game. The public is not presented with all the facts of what was available. It is easy to let speculation creep in and let that become reality.
The plain fact is: We do not know exactly what was on the table, what is going on behind the scenes or what other considerations are out there for why a team does or does not do something.
The oft-rumored partnership between the Orlando Magic and Golden State Warriors this offseason involving that second pick felt more like connecting dots that were not there.
There was a logic to it, of course. The Warriors’ championship window was open and a rookie probably does not help them as much as a player like Nikola Vucevic might and so a framework for a deal existed. No one denied that.
But it never seemed like the Warriors were interested. James Wiseman is a really talented player and he has looked solid for a rookie this year. Especially after Klay Thompson’s catastrophic injury just days before the NBA Draft, the Warriors were not in a position to give up a chance at this top pick.
Even involving Evan Fournier this offseason. There might have been an opportunity to trade Fournier into the Warriors’ rather large trade exception or to net some other assets. But it seemed like, through the Kelly Oubre trade, the Warriors were only interested in sending out draft picks in that deal.
The framework for a deal was there. But the Magic made it clear it seemed they were not in a mood to sell. They were not interested in acquiring solely draft picks. They wanted players who could help them win and compete for a playoff spot.
That is just part of Jeff Weltman’s philosophy. Weltman believes young teams grow best when they are in positions to win and play meaningful games. Even with Jonathan Isaac’s injury, he was not prepared to “throw away” the season and start selling off pieces.
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The plan here certainly sounds like a nice one. But it is a bit of a pipe dream. It just did not match the Magic’s timeline or their willingness to bet fully on a draft class no one was particularly sold on.
That does not mean it has not surprised. LaMelo Ball has been fantastic. Anthony Edwards is coming along. And the Magic are also pretty happy with how Cole Anthony has played to start his career.
The question facing the Magic today then is: Are they now ready to sell? Will future assets be enough to make them move off veterans? Will this team reset?
Orlando was not prepared to do so during the last offseason. And that is probably why the team was unable to make the kinds of changes fans were anticipating. The market wanted the Magic to sell and they were not going to do so.
That might have changed now considering the team is sinking in the standings, lining up for a top pick in a more-loaded draft class and facing key decisions on players on their roster. Cutting some payroll (as noted previously) might be a goal that allows the Magic to make the kinds of moves to bring in young players and reset the roster a bit.
We will not know what opportunities the Magic passed up. But the one thing that remains important is that the team has a vision for what it wants to become and what it wants to accomplish — both in the short- and long-term. And then effect a plan to execute that vision.
The frustration with how little the team has done is fair. The Magic must begin seeking, taking and creating opportunities now after this disaster of a season.
From John Poulsen via Facebook
"They added some shooting with the drafting of Anthony this year. Do you expect the magic to address shooting more so this summer than last summer?"
The biggest thing I have been thinking about during this eight-game losing streak is how do the Orlando Magic expand their margin for error.
This team, it feels, has to be pieced together perfectly in order to compete at the highest levels. Their best players all have major flaws and they all seem to be the same thing — the lack of shooting.
There is so much proof around the league that shooting lowers the margin for error. Teams with advanced offensive execution — and probably a guy who can create his own shot and the willingness to create for others with all that attention — can beat even good defensive teams.
In the NBA, a good offense ultimately beats a good defense.
The other thing I have been thinking about is a line Steve Clifford has said several times in postgame press conferences.
The notion is this: The Magic’s problem is not executing, he would say. The team runs through its sets effectively. The issue becomes where do the Magic go when it is time to make a play. When the play breaks down, how does this team get a shot?
This is the essence of the Magic’s “playoff problem.”
In the playoffs, teams hone in on everything you do. The famous playoff books have every play and tendency written down. The playoffs are about beating that knowledge nonetheless.
More from Mailbag
- Orlando Magic Daily Mailbag Volume 42: Preparing for a fun season
- Orlando Magic Daily Mailbag: Halfway through Year 1
- Orlando Magic Daily Mailbag: As the ping pong ball turns
- Orlando Magic Daily Mailbag: At the crossroads
- Orlando Magic Daily Mailbag: New season, same questions
Shooting makes it easy. Defenses cannot leave anyone if they have to worry about a kick out to a shooter. This makes everyone better.
Orlando was fine to focus on defense and build that as the team’s backbone. The Magic have done well to build a culture centered on defense as a way to become competitive on a base level.
The team is there. Even during this losing streak with so many players out, the Magic are defending decently well. Clifford will make sure of that.
So the focus for the team now needs to be correcting in the other direction. Orlando should make a bit of a gamble and focus almost exclusively on adding shooters. So long as those players show competitiveness to get after it defensively, Clifford will get the most out of them.
But the team fell apart this year because all of their reserve players were defensive specialists. When they lost starters, they lost their offensive push completely. Who knows how bad this team would be if it lost its offensive crux in Nikola Vucevic.
Even when fully healthy, the Magic were scratching and clawing to be in the top half of the league. That is the part that needs to change. The Magic have to have some faith their defensive culture is good enough to teach non-defensive players “their way.”
Adding shooting and guys who just know how to get the ball in the bucket is very clearly the next step for this team.
Add that to a team with a top-5 pick and an All-Star in his prime in Nikola Vucevic, the Magic have the beginnings of something. They just need the support to grow and become a more balanced team.
Thanks to everyone for your mailbag questions. We will have a lot more to say before the trade deadline and the rest of the season. Be on the lookout for our next mailbag likely toward the end of the season. Until then, you can always get in touch with us on Twitter @omagicdaily and by e-mail at omagicdaily@gmail.com.