The Orlando Magic are a month away from the trade deadline.
Judging both by their remaining schedule and the standings in front of them, their playoff dreams seem to be hanging by a thread.
FiveThirtyEight updated their playoff odds following the release of the second half of the schedule and peg the Magic with a 9-percent chance of making the playoffs. The window is certainly closing for the Magic if they want to make a third trip to the playoffs.
For sure, the Magic are running out of time to make their playoff move. They are likely at the critical point of the season where they either make their push for the playoff or begin to make plans for a better 2021.
Those are likely already in place with both Jonathan Isaac and Markelle Fultz aiming to return from torn ACLs. They will still need some time to get back to full health. There will still be a bit of an adjustment and waiting for them next year in their return.
But the team is going to have to make decisions before then. The trade deadline is going to prove to be the first major pressure point of the season as the team tries to reckon with a season that is looking like it will coast into the Lottery for the first time in three years.
It is still too early to give up on the season entirely. But the numbers are working against the Magic. They are going to run out of time to make this decision. And there is no going back.
In either case, a simple playoff cameo is not a goal worth saving. The Magic know this and acknowledge this. They are long overdue to push this team in one direction or another and it feels like this season will finally force some decisions and force some change.
The Magic have some critical decisions to make that do have a deadline at the March 25 NBA trade deadline. With a playoff team like the Magic falling off as much as they have, there is a sense around the NBA Internet at least that the Magic will be willing to sell and begin shifting their franchise.
It will not be a full-out firesale. The Magic are not looking to restart their project completely. Earlier reporting suggesting the Magic feel comfortable with their roster and what it might do with Fultz and Isaac returning certainly makes some sense. Orlando will feel they can compete again quickly with whatever remains on the team.
But that should not mean the team delays some change. It does not mean they should sit still in this market or at the trade deadline.
What they will need is to be clear on what they want to accomplish this trade deadline. What are they looking for and what kinds of packages will get them to pull the trigger on a trade.
At this point, almost every player should be on the table for the right package. Figuring out what that package is will be the first step to coming up with workable deals.
The Untouchables
The Orlando Magic at this point should have very few players who are completely untouchable. They are a team that needs to look at ways to improve any way that it can and so nothing should be off the table.
The Magic will not be able to trade Jonathan Isaac or Markelle Fultz at this trade deadline. And, for now, those two players should be about as untouchable as players get on this team.
For now, Orlando should be trying to build its team around Jonathan Isaac, Markelle Fultz, their upcoming draft pick and likely Nikola Vucevic. Vucevic (who we will get to later in this post). The team needs to put its focus on tailoring a team to their strengths.
That means, probably first and foremost, adding shooting. And that should be a premium for the team.
Orlando Magic
This was the case this past offseason — and really the offseason before that too — and it has largely been ignored. What has become clear is that the team’s poor shooting has created such a small margin for error that it is easy for this team to break.
The Magic are going to need to take a gamble somewhere.
But for a team that is still relatively young, the investment in Isaac and Fultz with contract extensions should set who the team is trying to build around. The Magic are not going to transform in one fell swoop — although a Lottery win could certainly speed up expectations and potential. Their goal for next year should be to get back into the playoff conversation with the clear potential for growth.
Right now, the team needs to be building a team that puts Isaac, Fultz and that unknown draft pick in the best positions to succeed.
Add Cole Anthony and Chuma Okeke into this mix of players who are almost completely untouchable as the team is heavily invested in his development and growth too entering his second year with the team.
The Magic are not in a fire sale. But they are seemingly ready to shift.
Evan Fournier
The most immediate deadline for the Orlando Magic is with Evan Fournier. Fournier will become a free agent at the end of the season after picking up his player option for the 2021 season. He has delivered so far with a season that is matching last year’s season. All while dealing with back spasms that have knocked him out of the lineup for extended periods of time.
It is only two recent struggles that had Evan Fournier’s scoring average dip below his career-high of 18.5 points per game set last year. Regardless, Fournier to this point has matched his season from last year.
He was always miscast as the team’s primary perimeter creator and scorer. He was thriving with Markelle Fultz taking on more of that role. And that certainly suggests Fournier could fit in well if he were moved to a secondary or tertiary role.
It is no coincidence that Bobby Marks of ESPN ranked Fournier as one of the most valuable trade chips on the market this year. He is also the one player on the Magic’s roster that the team has no leverage in trade negotiations for.
Do not expect a great return. At this point, the Magic are going to be trying to get as much as they can for him.
What are the Magic looking for then?
Daily Knicks
The ideal trade might be a similar deal to what Orlando got for Fournier to begin with. Trading a still productive Arron Afflalo for an unproven, but promising Evan Fournier was a brilliant move from Rob Hennigan (yes, he had a few, especially early in is tenure as he was merely collecting talent). That was the right time to cash in on Afflalo.
The Magic should be hunting for something similar. They should be seeking some player who can potentially fill that starter spot in the short-term — Fournier’s $17-million salary is going to require finding a player with some salary heft to make the trade work. But the real prize could be a secondary player or a young player the Magic view as some building block for the future.
The Magic, like during the last offseason, should be looking to make moves with purpose. They should be looking to bring in players who will help support and grow this team in the next few seasons.
There will undoubtedly be a market for Fournier. The Magic will not be able to get everything they want. But they should still be focused on getting something that helps them move forward.
Potential Trade Partners: Philadelphia 76ers, Denver Nuggets, New York Knicks, Los Angeles Lakers, Dallas Mavericks, Sacramento Kings
Potential Trade Targets: Buddy Hield, Gary Harris, Tyrese Maxey, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Josh Richardson, Danny Green
Mohamed Bamba
The biggest question about this team’s future in the short-term is whether the Orlando Magic still believe in Mohamed Bamba. There are definitely a few teams thinking about second-draft opportunities with Mohamed Bamba and trying to get the talented and physically gifted big man a second chance.
There was a reason he was picked sixth three years ago. That reason does not go completely away. Not without a team trying him out in a different situation.
Bamba has dealt with a ton of injuries in his time with the Magic — a stress fracture in his leg cut his rookie season short, COVID-19 cut his second season short and bit a chunk out of his third season. That has to be part of his story.
Coach Steve Clifford seems to have suggested that Mohamed Bamba is going to get some more consistent playing time for the short-term. That is in an effort to try to build back his game rhythm and processing — that might be a better term than conditioning, which Clifford has used repeatedly.
Lake Show Life
Orlando should not be shopping Bamba at this point. He has one year left on his rookie contract. So there is still time. And they should not consider him a throw-in to a deal (like a few players I will describe later in this slide).
But if a team puts in a bid for Bamba, the Magic should definitely listen. Orlando should not feel so tied to Bamba that they are considering him part of their core. But they should still be circumspect in any trade.
The plain fact is they still do not know what they have in Bamba. He just has not played enough to establish himself. Any progress he has made has then been slowed by some external factor (not entirely by his play).
The Magic should be looking for second-draft players in this case. The best swap for the Magic would be to acquire another player on their rookie contract who just has not worked out for whatever reason.
Potential Trade Partners: New York Knicks, Charlotte Hornets, Washington Wizards, Oklahoma City Thunder, Sacramento Kings
Potential Trade Targets: Malik Monk, Hamidou Diallo, Kevin Knox, Jerome Robinson, Troy Brown Jr., Nemanja Bjelica, Frank Ntilikina
The Throw-Ins
Before diving back into more realistic and heavier trade targets for the Orlando Magic, it is important to point out the two players the team is likely to throw into trades to make salaries match that they are likely to be fine getting rid of.
Khem Birch is the most likely throw-in to any trade. He has an expiring contract worth $3 million. The Magic are also probably trying to force Mohamed Bamba into the rotation more. Birch is definitely an attractive sweetener to get what the team wants in an Evan Fournier trade.
The other deal the Magic probably want to move off of is Al-Farouq Aminu. He has $9.7 million owed to him this year and $10.2 million owed next year. That deal will be a bit tougher to move. But he has shown he is getting healthy again and he can help a team as an extra defender.
There are more players the Magic could throw in — especially someone like James Ennis. But they probably are not going to make any significant returns or sweeten the pot enough to change a deal.
Aaron Gordon
Perhaps the most intriguing trade chip the Orlando Magic have to play is Aaron Gordon. He is perhaps the one big chip the team has to cash to build up some capital within the roster or transform it significantly.
Aaron Gordon has the right mix of potential, previous success and established talent to attract some team somewhere. Even if nobody is sure about what he is in this league still.
For the Magic, he seems both extremely important to the present but also expendable in the future. Orlando already seems particularly loaded at his position with similar players. The biggest question the Magic seemingly face is whether Jonathan Isaac and Aaron Gordon can play together.
That does not seem like the safest bet at the moment. The easiest thing the Magic could do to improve is to clear up that logjam and get a higher-level asset for him in return. Gordon is probably the most valuable and attractive trade piece the Magic are likely willing to part with.
The question for Orlando is figuring out when the right time to pull the trigger would be. That is going to be the test then for Jeff Weltman. This is truly a big card the team could pull.
Gordon’s injury this year will certainly make it tougher to assess his potential trade value. He likely will not get too much time to play before then. So that will make a trade even more difficult to figure.
Nugg Love
That is on top of Gordon’s inconsistent season to this point already. Gordon is averaging 13.8 points per game and 7.2 rebounds per game, both numbers down from last year. He is averaging 4.2 assists per game, showing some newfound playmaking that adds to his versatility.
Orlando reportedly shopped Gordon at last year’s deadline. They did not find any deals that moved them to change — especially while they were still in the playoff chase. Even if the Magic are out of the playoffs, it might be tough to move him without assurances that Isaac is ready to play.
In other words, the Magic’s posture may not have changed much. Orlando is still likely to wait out a deal that compels them to move. Figuring out what that move is might be anybody’s guess.
It is hard to figure that out.
Gordon could be the centerpiece of a deal to acquire the kind of star that ties the roster together. But that seems less and less likely at this point. The Magic just have to assess the market.
This is probably the point the Magic have the most leverage in any deal. Gordon has two years left on his deal. So a team acquiring him would get the benefit of a full season before they have to make their own decision on whether to trade him before the next deadline.
Sounds simple right? The clock is clearly ticking though. And this might be the biggest decision the Magic have to make. One that could determine whether Jeff Weltman’s project is successful or not.
Orlando has to get this decision on Gordon right as the team continues to build and move forward.
But who or what the team is looking to get for Gordon is anybody’s guess. My bet is another player in Gordon’s position — on his first contract after his rookie contract — that fits the roster better. The Magic need a starter in return.
Potential Trade Partners: Brooklyn Nets, Denver Nuggets, Minnesota Timberwolves, Portland Trail Blazers, Phoenix Suns, Golden State Warriors
Potential Trade Targets: CJ McCollum, Spencer Dinwiddie, Kelly Oubre, Andrew Wiggins, Paul Millsap, Rodney Hood
Nikola Vucevic
Ask anyone around the league and they are seemingly circling for Orlando Magic All-Star center Nikola Vucevic. Even a current of fans are hoping the Magic at least entertain offering Vucevic in a trade as a way to get him onto a contending team.
That is a nice sentiment for sure. But it would still take a lot for the Magic to move off of Vucevic.
Jeff Weltman has made it clear during his tenure that he believes teams develop best when put in winning environments. He is not planning on doing a massive rebuild. And, to be sure, the likely deals that teams would pursue involving Vucevic are going to force the team to start almost completely over.
The general thought however around the league appears to be that Orlando believes it can make a return to the playoffs quickly by bringing back Markelle Fultz and Jonathan Isaac to virtually the same core.
Pippen Ain't Easy
It cannot be exactly the same core. But Vucevic is the best player. He gives the team the most stability on both ends and the best chance to win. That is the ultimate goal.
The hope for the team’s development then is that Vucevic can provide enough stability to get the team back into the playoff picture and then maybe one day give way to the team’s next star. They need someone to hand the baton off to one of the younger players when they are ready.
Right now, it does not seem like any of them are ready. That makes Vucevic vital to the team’s short-term future (at least until his contract runs out). This is a decision the Magic do not have to be in a rush to make.
This does not mean Orlando should not be willing to listen to offers. The Magic should be assessing everything that is available to them. They are not in a position to pass anything up.
But for Vucevic? They should be looking for a star to replace him. Or at least someone that will be a core piece of the team in the short-term at a minimum and, hopefully, for the long-term too.
Right now, Vucevic is a foundational piece of the puzzle for the Magic. They should treat him as such.
Potential Trade Partners: Boston Celtics, Brooklyn Nets, Milwaukee Bucks, Toronto Raptors, Charlotte Hornets, Chicago Bulls, San Antonio Spurs, Golden State Warriors
Potential Trade Targets: Terry Rozier, James Wiseman, Spencer Dinwiddie, DeMar DeRozan, LaMarcus Aldridge, Kelly Oubre, Andrew Wiggins, Lauri Markkanen, OG Anunoby, Brook Lopez
The trade deadline is March 25.