At long last, the Kawhi Leonard saga is over.
The league levied its punishments on the LA Clippers a few weeks ago, and the Clippers have now officially sent Kawhi Leonard to the Toronto Raptors.
At long last, a trade that everyone expected would one day be completed has been finished. The Eastern Conference picture is clearer.
Last year felt so wide open with the Boston Celtics and Indiana Pacers both missing key players on contending rosters. It was not far-fetched to believe the Orlando Magic with their big push to acquire Desmond Bane would make the Eastern Conference Finals.
Even at the end of the season when the Orlando Magic took a 3-1 lead over the Detroit Pistons, people felt there was a path for the Magic to reach the conference finals.
That pathway looks tighter now.
It is not just Leonard joining the Raptors. It is Giannis Antetokounmpo joining the Miami Heat. It is Jaylen Brown and LeBron James joining a suddenly ascending Philadelphia 76ers squad. It is the return of Tyrese Haliburton with the Indiana Pacers.
The Eastern Conference is as competitive and tight as it has ever been. And the Magic find themselves in a pressure-packed season right in the middle of it.
It is difficult to figure out where the Magic fit in this new ecosystem. They have the talent to win a playoff series and be one of the best teams in the conference. They have also shown that they can slip up and fall into the Play-In group.
That is the craziest thing about the Magic is that they could end up anywhere.
Now that the Eastern Conference has settled down with this last big move of the offseason, the picture is a bit clearer. Where do the Magic sit?
The Best-Case Scenario: Eastern contenders
1. New York Knicks
2. Philadelphia 76ers
3. Toronto Raptors
4. Cleveland Cavaliers
The Orlando Magic can be Eastern Conference contenders.
They showed that by pushing a 60-win Detroit Pistons team to a 3-1 series lead. When Franz Wagner is healthy, they can compete with the league's best teams.
After all, the Orlando Magic defeated the New York Knicks twice, the Toronto Raptors at home and Boston Celtics early in the season in the NBA Cup in addition to those wins over the Detroit Pistons -- including an NBA Cup win.
The question keeping the Magic from this best-case scenario is the quality of their offense and their health.
The last two seasons have been mired with injuries to both of the team's key players. Any team missing an All-Star level player for the majority of the season is going to be hard-pressed to be the best version of itself.
The difference between the Magic and the elite teams is how they withstand injuries. It is about star and identity depth.
As the defending champions, the New York Knicks are the unquestioned standard in the league. They cannot win a title without Jalen Brunson, but they can still fill in and step up without him. They have a base of information and consistency that allows them to play well.
They have depth.
That is what the elite teams do well. They have strong starting lineups with players who can scale up and down and loads of depth. That more than anything is why the Knicks are the class of the East and everyone else is chasing them.
The other title contenders in the East either have the star power or the depth.
The Philadelphia 76ers' starting lineup might be the best in the East. They have four All-Star-level players who can all take the load and win a game when needed. They should be able to help each other get through the season.
But the Sixers' depth will raise a lot of questions. If any of them, or multiple of them, go down to injury, the Sixers could feel human. And a lot depends on Joel Embiid making it through the season, given their lack of center depth.
The Toronto Raptors' move to acquire Kawhi Leonard is an upgrade after their breakthrough season last year. They were a crazed defensive unit that at times lacked offensive consistency. Leonard fills that void. And the Raptors have the depth to still maintain a strong defensive identity.
This is a very good team.
The Cleveland Cavaliers have become something of an afterthought. Despite losing some depth, their starting lineup remains potent with four All-Star-level players and the best backcourt in the conference in Donovan Mitchell and James Harden.
Despite a disappointing sweep, this team still made the Eastern Conference Finals. But age is going to hit this team hard eventually.
The Likely-Case Scenario: Stuck in the middle
5. Orlando Magic
6. Boston Celtics
7. Detroit Pistons
8. Indiana Pacers
9. Miami Heat
Nothing ever goes chalk though.
If there is a reason to believe in the Orlando Magic, it is that reason. The season rarely goes how everyone expects it will at the start of the season. Some team will be a surprise.
Few would have guessed the Detroit Pistons would have won 60 games and the top seed in September last year or that the Boston Celtics would be the 2-seed.
Making a prediction at this stage is sure to be wrong. Someone will disappoint.
Nobody should be willing to pull the trigger on the Magic. They have not proven themselves. But the doubt surrounding the Magic is not completely warranted either.
With health, this is still a really strong team. And I would pick them to be the team largely predicted in the middle of the Eastern Conference that could make a push up the standings this year. After all, everything went wrong last year and they still won 45 games.
But all the teams in this mix in the middle of the East could easily finish anywhere. There is not much separating any of them.
Every team has some fatal flaw that could lead them to disaster and to sitting in the Play-In range.
The Magic's fatal flaw is that they need everyone healthy to be a success.
The Boston Celtics are a team everyone should still have on their radar. Their system is built to mount regular season wins. But they have struggled to maintain the 3-point shooting into the playoffs.
With Paul George replacing Jaylen Brown, the Celtics will need more from a still-recovering Jayson Tatum. It will be hard to replace the lightning in a bottle.
The Detroit Pistons should have expectations to compete for a championship with an elite defense again. But the Pistons have not solved their big problem -- finding a secondary attacker to help Cade Cunningham.
Losing Tobias Harris for John Collins does not solve that problem. And Jalen Duren's contract status only further clouds the Pistons' future.
The Indiana Pacers are the trendy pick to return to contention. And they are still good enough to make noise in the Eastern Conference as they get Tyrese Haliburton back from injury.
But I am still skeptical that Haliburton will be fully up to speed as he returns after missing all of last season. Until Haliburton is running at full speed, the Pacers are still pretty tame.
The Miami Heat finally won the headlines in the summer by acquiring Giannis Antetokounmpo. And that makes the Heat a better team. Miami should have one of the best defenses in the league.
Despite adding some key shooters in Klay Thompson and Tim Hardaway Jr., the Heat should still have some questions about their guard play. Erik Spoelstra's wizardry can only go so far. And this is a team particularly susceptible to injury.
The Worst-Case Scenario: Back in the Play-In. . . or worse
10. Atlanta Hawks
11. Charlote Hornets
12. Washington Wizards
13. Milwaukee Bucks
14. Chicago Bulls
15. Brooklyn Nets
Things could still go very wrong for the Orlando Magic.
Most of the national predictions have the Magic back in the Play-In Tournament for a third straight year and staring at the treadmill of mediocrity. Unlike the last two seasons, a lot of them have the Magic in the 9/10 game rather than the 7/8 game.
That is a position the Magic do not want to be in. It is still one they are staring directly in the face.
And clearly the Eastern Conference is better this year.
Many teams feel they will make the Playoffs. Only eight get to make it. And there will be teams disappointed with missing the Play-In. There is just not enough room.
The Magic know how they end up in the Play-In again. If they deal with injuries again, they are a very normal team. And normal will have the team in the 9/10 game this season. That is the reality of the magic's roster and the way this team is constructed.
The Atlanta Hawks do not deserve to be in this group. But without clearer star power at the top of the roster, it feels like they are going to struggle to catch the same lightning in a bottle they did last year. But nobody should count them out.
The Charlotte Hornets were a nice late-season surprise last year. But the Hornets lost one of their biggest engines in LaMelo Ball. And while they still have plenty of weapons, the puzzle does not look as complete as it did last year.
The Washington Wizards pushed a lot of chips in to acquire Trae Young and Anthony Davis to give their team a quick star jolt. But while Young is signed long-term, Davis is already a favorite candidate to be moved. And both players have dealt with tons of injuries at this stage in their careers.
The Milwaukee Bucks have plenty of veterans, but no star to tie them together. The Chicago Bulls have young talent, but nothing clear to invest in as a prediction now. And the Brooklyn Nets have veterans who will carry them to more wins, but are not likely to put the pieces together at a high level.
Still, all three of those teams have dangerous players when healthy and should not be counted out.
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