The NBA rattled a lot of cages this week when it (finally) announced the results of its investigation into the LA Clippers' business dealings with Kawhi Leonard and potential cap circumvention.
The penalties were severe -- stripping the Clippers of five future first-round picks, fining them $30 million, suspending owner Steve Ballmer from team activities for a full year, suspending their head basketball decision-maker, Lawrence Frank, for six months and fining Kawhi Leonard $700,000.
Everyone is comparing this not only to the Minnesota Timberwolves' penalty for their cap circumvention in signing Joe Smith back in 1999 -- a move that essentially killed the Kevin Garnett era -- but also to the NCAA's suspension of SMU's football program for four years.
This is as close to a death penalty as the NBA can get.
It will be difficult for the Clippers to build now. But they will be a factor. And even with Ballmer suspended for the year, he will not sit idly by and wait for his team's punishment to end -- the draft picks taken go out for the next seven years because the Clippers had already traded their first-round pick in the last two years.
The Orlando Magic are not thinking too much about the LA Clippers. They are out in the Western Conference. What they do rarely impacts the team.
But Sam Vecenie said on the Game Theory Podcast that the Clippers' now-unique situation could put them in play as a spoiler because they must build differently.
Unlike many teams in the league, they must use their cap space. And a player like Anthony Black, if he hits restricted free agency, would be a perfect target.
"If I'm Steve Ballmer and all these penalties are upheld, and he wants to keep the team, I'm just throwing my financial weight around and going to get picks," Vecenie said. "Or they could do it the way we're going to use our cap space next summer and try to steal Anthony Black and try to steal Scoot Henderson or some young player like that. Take fliers on young guys who fit really well with Keaton Wagler and after that we'll have a bunch of expiring money too.
"They still have so many different ways they can attack this because Steve Ballmer is richer than everybody else."
If the Clippers want to be competitive, they will need to be willing to do things differently. And perhaps Ballmer's wealth will help them make moves other teams will not do.
A rock and a hard place
The Orlando Magic obviously do not have draft picks to offer to help get off bad contracts -- they essentially attached multiple picks to get off Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Cole Anthony's contracts in the Desmond Bane trade.
But they do have one of the bigger restricted free agents next summer, assuming Anthony Black does not agree to an extension this offseason.
That will be a point of some contention heading into camp.
The Magic are expected to want to keep Black. They have made it a point to retain almost all of their drafted players. But that strategy has also made them expensive, pushing them toward the second apron this season.
The Magic will need to find a way to cut payroll soon, especially if the Magic are not contending for a title.
Black seems to be drawing the short end of that stick because of that. His future with the team in some flux, even if the Magic retain matching rights as a restricted free agent next summer.
Orlando wants to keep him. . . but the team simply cannot afford to pay everyone at this rate.
Black still needs to prove what his role in the league will be. He had a breakout season last year after two developmental years in his first two years in the league. The Magic will be leaning on him to anchor their bench units.
The question facing the Magic is how much are they willing to pay for that player? How much can they pay?
And that is what makes his extension talks and future free agency so fascinating.
The Clippers' threat
It was not a good time to be a restricted free agent this offseason.
The Denver Nuggets used their matching rights to keep teams nervous about chasing Peyton Watson after his breakout season. The Cleveland Cavaliers ultimately swooped in with a sign-and-trade deal to add him.
Bennedict Mathurin sat around waiting for someone to make an offer before the New Orleans Pelicans offered him a two-year deal.
Jalen Duren remains unsigned, although he is expected to remain with the Detroit Pistons.
Part of why these players sat unsigned was how few teams could chase them in free agency.
There were not many teams with cap room this summer. And restricted free agency has become a handcuff for these players since their previous teams are more likely to match any offer or hold out for a sign-and-trade deal, something made more complicated in the new iteration of this CBA.
That will change next year. And the Clippers are one of the reasons why.
This Clippers team is still plenty talented with Darius Garland and Brandon Ingram as former All-Stars on the roster. The team is $11.9 million beneath the tax, giving them plenty of room to maneuver in trades and be active.
But they are also flexible with plenty of short-term salaries and ways to dip even further beneath the cap.
What would stop the Clippers from being able to throw a huge offer at a player like Black that the Magic could not afford to match?
The Clippers are not alone. Bobby Marks of ESPN projects that anywhere from 3-10 teams could end up with significant salary cap space based on how they play out this season and at the trade deadline. That is a lot more competition than this past offseason.
And Black may be among the top gettable free agents next summer.
Black and his representatives are also likely thinking of this too.
Nobody knows what strategy the Clippers will turn to. Maybe they take Vecenie's first idea aim to take on bad salaries with that cap room to refill their draft stock with their own picks erased. Or maybe they look to make a big splash in free agency and put Black in their crosshairs.
The Magic are officially on notice as they consider how to move forward with Black.
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