From the end of the season when the Orlando Magic trudged off the floor at Little Caesars Arena and returned home wounded and frustrated, president of basketball operations Jeff Weltman held onto one piece of positivity from a disappointing season.
When the Magic actually got their ideal starting lineup on the court, it was wildly successful. They saw that in the Playoffs when they took a 3-1 series lead over the 60-win Detroit Pistons before injury struck again and ended Franz Wagner's postseason early.
It is fair to argue Orlando should have been better than an 8-seed and still won its series even with the injuries. But the best version of the team was still out there and attainable.
This idea animated the Magic's offseason -- or its inactivity.
Weltman and his team went into the season with the same group and the same belief in a lineup that barely got off the ground.
The Magic had some success, there is no denying that.
Orlando's starting five of Jalen Suggs, Desmond Bane, Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero and Wendell Carter had a +11.6 net rating in 182 minutes and 19 games together last season (117.3 offensive rating/105.7 defensive rating). It was the ninth-best lineup to play at least 150 minutes together.
That is something to build on.
The league has obviously changed. The Eastern Conference has added some crazy talented players like LeBron James and, eventually, Kawhi Leonard.
There are plenty of reasons why the Magic do not have a lot of faith put in them -- Greg Swartz of Bleacher Report underrated this lineup at No. 18 in his ranking of the NBA's starting lineups, favoring the contenders and more star-studded lineups.
That is how most of these lineup rankings are going, like the discussion on Locked On NBA which drafted the Oklahoma City Thunder with the best starting lineup and added other more headline-making teams like the Indiana Pacers and Philadelphia 76ers.
But this is important because the starting lineup is where the Magic have staked everything.
Is the Magic's starting lineup truly among the league's best? And can they do it again?
How good is the Magic's lineup really?
If this entire offseason is based on a healthy team playing together and being among the best in the league, it is kind of important to ask whether the Magic are that good.
Orlando got a preciously small sample with its best players together.
The Magic cannot be considered to have the best lineup in the league because of the numbers, but also because Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner are not the elite players in the league. This league is still about those elite players.
Much of the success of this season and the bet on this season is seeing Banchero and Wagner grow into All-NBA players.
Pundits picking even the Los Angeles Lakers' lineup over the Orlando Magic is based on star power. But it is undeniable that teams like the New York Knicks, Oklahoma City Thunder and Philadelphia 76ers are generating so much more buzz.
The question is where the Magic actually sit and whether this lineup is actually good enough.
HGere are the starting lineups they are competing with from last year:
Lineup | Minutes | Net Rtg. | Off./Def. |
|---|---|---|---|
Hornets | 509 | +26.4 | 134.9/108.6 |
Hawks | 391 | +20.3 | 123.1/102.8 |
Thunder | 167 | +18.6 | 120.9/102.3 |
Celtics | 200 | +17.9 | 122.6/104.7 |
Spurs | 284 | +17.6 | 125.4/107.7 |
Magic | 182 | +11.6 | 117.3/105.7 |
Pistons | 536 | +11.4 | 121.4/109.9 |
Bucks | 173 | +11.2 | 120.6/109.4 |
Lakers | 188 | +10.5 | 118.8/108.3 |
Suns | 267 | +10.4 | 114.7/104.3 |
I threw out three lineups in these rankings -- secondary starting lineups from the Detroit Pistons, Denver Nuggets and Orlando Magic (the lineup with Tristan da Silva in for Franz Wagner was +10.8 in 259 minutes).
But this listing of teams clearly shows the Magic are at least in the mix among the most effective starting lineups in the league.
The Charlotte Hornets and Atlanta Hawks certainly caught lightning in a bottle -- and there has been a strange dismissal of the Hawks despite having the best returning lineup in the league. And familiar names like the San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder are there.
Surprisingly, the New York Knicks' starting five is not in this group. The lineup of Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges, Josh Hart, OG Anunoby and Karl-Anthony Towns managed only a +2.3 net rating (115.0/112.8) in 541 minutes together. The Magic had four lineups perform better than that.
In the Playoffs that group went +12.5 points per 100 possessions in 263 minutes. Lineups can find their groove and step up in big moments, even if they are mediocre in the regular season.
It shows that there is no exact science. Winning in this league is about talent and opportunity. And then about catching fire at the right time.
The Magic have faith they have the talent to be competitive.
Changes ahead
It should also be clear from looking at that chart that it is incomplete too.
So many lineups changed because the offseason is full of movement. Teams were aggressive throughout the Eastern Conference, trying to improve.
This list will look very different next season.
For instance, the Philadelphia 76ers' three-player lineup of Tyrese Maxey, V.J. Edgecombe and Joel Embiid had a +3.4 net rating in 746 minutes together. That lineup adds Jaylen Brown and LeBron James to the mix.
The Toronto Raptors' four-man lineup of Immanuel Quickley, R.J. Barrett, Scottie Barnes and Jakob Poeltl had a +9.4 net rating in 423 minutes. That group will eventually add Kawhi Leonard.
The Miami Heat's three-man lineup of Davion Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins and Bam Adebayo had a +3.4 net rating in 982 minutes. It adds Giannis Antetokounmpo and Tim Hardaway Jr. to its starting lineup this season.
There are a lot of at least moderately successful lineups that will get a major injection.
The Orlando Magic's four-man group of Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, Desmond Bane and Jalen Suggs had a +11.8 net rating (117.3/105.5) in 198 minutes together.
But the three-man group of Banchero, Wagner and Bane was at +1.4 points per 100 possessions in 372 minutes (112.5/111.1).
It is really hard to predict what lineups will work together and how to unlock the best version of these players.
And a good starting lineup alone will not clinch a fantastic season. Teams need depth and need to adapt. The wrong injury, as the Magic learned last year, can derail an entire season.
There will be a lot for coach Sean Sweeney to figure out this season to make the best rotations and best playing groups. But it does appear he has a starting lineup that is a strong base to grow with.
And there indeed seems to be something for the Magic to build on.
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