There was never really any doubt that Paolo Banchero would get a max extension this summer. It was one of the surest things that would happen in an always-unpredictable NBA.
The raw numbers Banchero puts up -- 25.9 points per game in an injury-filled season that only gets better if you throw out the month after he returned from his oblique injury -- put him in a special class of players. His Playoff performances in 12 games across two series have him doing things only the elite players in league history have done.
Banchero is not free from criticism, though. Despite the raw scoring numbers -- not to mention the assists and rebounds for such a high-usage player -- that scream he is a superstar in the making, people still criticize him for his lack of efficiency.
Last year, he shot 45.2 percent from the floor, a slight decrease from his number in his All-Star 2024 season. That included a rough stretch in the immediate aftermath of his injury where he shot 40.6 percent in the 17 games after his return. The Magic, predictably, went 5-12 in that stretch.
Every team goes how its stars go. And if the Magic are going to go as far as Banchero can take them.
If they are serious about contending in the Eastern Conference, they will need Banchero to be more efficient.
While continued 3-point shooting improvement is a big part of this story -- part of his transformation is a second straight postseason where he was efficient (44.4 percent) on volume (5.4 attempts per game) against the Boston Celtics -- a bigger transformation will come if Banchero can improve as a mid-range jumper shooter.
Banchero is still 22 years old, entering his year 23 season. He is young enough that improvement is still likely to come.
But with the extension and the money comes expectation. The Magic have pushed their chips and bet entirely and properly on Banchero. For the Magic to reach the next level, it starts with Banchero.
And everyone feels that pressure to turn it up.
"This just comes down to: Is Paolo going to get better as a shooter or is he going to continue to be relatively inefficient as a mid-range shot creator and a 3-point shot creator," Sam Vecenie said on Game Theory about Banchero's extension. "If he gets one of those things. If he becomes a 37-percent 3-point shooter as opposed to a 32-percent 3-point shooter, if he becomes a real dynamic mid-range shotmaker rather than a guy who take a lot of mid-range shots right now and generally creates them at a high level and gets clean looks but doesn't convert them often enough, he has a real chance to be a top six or seven guy in the league."
Banchero still has work to do and a lot of it will start with his mid-range efficiency because so many of his shots come from there.
Paolo already takes a lot of mid-range shots
The mid-range is the provenance of the stars -- the kind of inefficient and anti-analytics shot stars have to take because defenses take away everything else. Paolo Banchero has lived in the mid-range throughout his career.
But he has not always been successful taking those shots.
Last year, Banchero was third in the league with 4.7 mid-range field goal attempts per game. But he made only 41.7 percent of those shots. That was the second-lowest percentage among players who took at least 4.0 attempts per game (only Joel Embiid was worse of those nine players) and eighth-worst among players who attempted 3.0 mid-range jumpers per game.
That latter list includes some high-level players. Luka Doncic shot 38.9 percent on 3.1 mid-range attempts per game, for instance. Everyone's favorite player to compare Paolo Banchero to, Jalen Williams, made 45.9 percent of his 3.0 mid-range attempts per game.
In all, 23.9 percent of Banchero's field goal attempts came in the mid-range, and 34.1 percent of his 2-point field goals were mid-range attempts.
In the Playoffs, he led the league with 8.6 mid-range field goal attempts per game, making only 37.7 percent of those shots. Among the seven players in the Playoffs to shoot 4.0 mid-range shots per game, only Giannis Antetokounmpo was worse. He was the fifth-worst among players who shot 3.0 mid-range shots per game.
Mid-range attempts accounted for 34.7 percent of his field goal attempts during the five-game series with the Boston Celtics.
If Banchero is going to take that many shots from the mid-range, he certainly needs to be more efficient with them.
Banchero has already shown hope that he can take a leap
Last year was a strange season for Paolo Banchero no matter how you shake it. His poor play returning from the oblique injury skewed all of his full-season numbers.
His mid-range numbers reflect that, too. From the time he returned from his injury until the All-Star break, Banchero shot 39.2 percent from 5.7 mid-range attempts per game.
After the All-Star break, though, all of Banchero's numbers took a noticeable leap.
He averaged 29.0 points per game while shooting 47.3 percent from the field overall and 33.3 percent from three -- a 58.3 percent true shooting percentage -- after the All-Star break. That 24-game stretch is a small sample for sure.
Banchero shot 42.5 percent on 4.4 mid-range field goal attempts per game. He was still a heavy mid-range shooter, but lowered his volume and made more of those shots.
But taken with his opening five-game stretch before the oblique injury -- where he also averaged 29.0 points per game (including his 50-point game as a major outlier, but also three 30-point games) and shot an efficient 49.5 percent from the floor and 59.0 percent true shooting percentage -- it suggests this is the direction Banchero is headed.
The question will be whether Banchero can continue to improve these marks.
Sam Vecenie, for his part, believes Banchero will get there. He already creates these shots. He is improving as a shooter. He is carrying the burden of stardom.
The fact that the Magic invested in creating better spacing -- Banchero is one of the most doubled players in the league -- and improved the roster around him will give him more lanes to get to the basket and balance his attacks with mid-range shots.
Better spacing could lead to a leap.
To be sure, Banchero still has to improve for as good as he is already. There is still an obvious leap for him to make.