The Paolo Banchero vs. Jalen Williams cornerstone debate has one clear answer

Over the weekend, I tweeted that I’d start a franchise with Paolo Banchero over Jalen Williams and that it wasn’t close—I didn’t expect it to set social media on fire, but here we are.

Both Banchero and J-Dub have had incredibly successful starts to the beginning of their careers. We have seen Oklahoma City improve every year with their core roster, and they finished it off with a title this season. Orlando has also continued to get better, and they just rewarded Banchero earlier this week with a 5-year, $239 million contract extension.

Although both players are great in their own right, Paolo Banchero is the obvious choice as a franchise cornerstone over Jalen Williams.

How did we get here?

Both players came into the league in the 2022 NBA Draft. Banchero was selected first overall and was drafted to be the face of the franchise and the next superstar in Orlando, the first in over a decade since Dwight Howard's departure in 2012.

Banchero, in his rookie season, took the league by storm with his physical and assertive play, and was the center of attention night in and night out for opposing defenses. Banchero led the Magic to a 34-win season, which was a 12-game improvement from the year prior, and won 98 of the 100 first-place votes for the Rookie of the Year award.

Jalen Williams, on the other hand, was thrust into a larger role than many had anticipated going into his rookie season after Chet Holmgren sustained a foot injury that would sideline him for the entirety of the 2022-23 season. J-Dub took advantage of his opportunity, averaging 14.1 points and helping lead the Thunder to a 40-win season while finishing second in the Rookie of the Year voting.

Both players, then, and now, had very different expectations placed upon them in their respective roles, which still plays a factor in today's conversation.

Offensive stats comparison

When taking a look at both the traditional and advanced stats from the 2024-25 regular season, J-Dub takes the cake in almost every statistical category. Banchero has the edge in both points and rebounds, and that's about it.

When comparing these two players in terms of their efficiency, truthfully speaking, it's not close, as J-Dub has proven to be the more efficient player on the offensive side of the ball. Not to mention the fact that J-Dub is an elite wing defender, helping anchor the best defense in the NBA last season, as it earned him the first All-NBA Defensive Second Team nod of his career.

According to 3stepsbasket, J-Dub is in the 98th percentile of MTD (mixed team defense) compared to Banchero, who is in the 94th percentile. While many, including myself, acknowledge that J-Dub is the better and more versatile defender, we can't act as if Banchero is a defensive liability; he's far from that when you watch the Magic play.

But their impact goes far beyond anything number or metric in the box score.

Skill set breakdown: Who brings more to the table?

Jalen Williams and Paolo Banchero not only have different roles that are asked of them, but their offensive skillset and style are almost night and day. Williams is asked to be that three-level scorer to help alleviate pressure off of SGA, while Banchero is asked to be the initiator, scorer, and facilitator for Orlando's offense.

J-Dub operates and plays more like a combo scoring guard who is an underrated slasher and can create his own shot off the dribble if need be. Banchero tends to operate out of the low post and mid-range, utilizing his size and physicality to his advantage to create space and get downhill.

Both Williams and Banchero have shown that they're willing passers in their offense, but more often than not, J-Dub tends to get more credit for being a 'better playmaker' when they're about the same. You can look at Williams having the advantage in the assists category, but that doesn't tell the entire story.

Here is another chart demonstrating how frequently both players pass the ball and how it affects the players around them.

Once again, J-Dub is still more efficient on the offensive end regarding his shooting splits, but these numbers collectively don't show the full context and how the roster construction around these two players significantly impacts their stats.

Team construction

Spacing, or lack thereof, is the biggest reason why Banchero and Williams' shooting splits and offensive efficiency look significantly different.

Banchero didn't have one single reliable knock-down shooter on his team to be able to kick out to when defenses would collapse on him, forcing him to take tougher and more contested jumpers. J-Dub, on the other hand, had the benefit of playing alongside many high-level impact role players such as Alex Caruso, Lu Dort, Isaiah Joe, Cason Wallace, etc, that could knock down the three ball at an extremely high clip.

Not to mention the fact that J-Dub has the benefit of playing second-option next to SGA, where Williams isn't asked to be 'the guy' night in and night out. He's asked to be the Robin to Batman, which, to his credit, he excels in that role. And it's not like SGA is a top-three player in the world who just put together one of the greatest and most historic scoring seasons in NBA history, but I digress.

For Oklahoma City, they ranked top three in offensive rating (119.2), they ranked sixth in 3-point percentage (37.4%), and they had a dozen players shoot 35+ percent from long range. Compare that to Orlando, who ranked 27th in offensive rating (108.9), they were at the bottom of the league in 3-point percentage (31.8%), and they had a whopping five players who shot 35 percent or better from behind the arc. Those five players are Caleb Houstan, Gary Harris, Cory Joseph, Moe Wagner, and Cole Anthony.

And more often than not, four out of those five players were negative assets on the floor when they played, excluding Moe Wagner, who was well on his way to being in contention for the Sixth Man of the Year Award before going down with a season-ending knee injury in December.

For context, the Magic shot the worst 3-point field goal percentage in the league since the Charlotte Bobcats shot 29.5 percent in the lockout-shortened 2012 season. So it's hard to put all the blame on Banchero for his 'lackluster' offensive efficiency when the team has not been suited around his skillset.

Accolades

Another area where J-Dub has Paolo beat out is in terms of accolades. Jalen Williams this season helped lead the Oklahoma City Thunder to a franchise record 68 wins, helped propel the team to their first championship in franchise history, while also earning All-NBA Third Team, making the All-NBA Defensive Second Team, and making his first All-Star game in February.

Banchero has the Rookie of the Year award and one All-Star appearance, which he got in his second season in the league. Banchero, who suffered the first major injury of his basketball career back in November of 2024 with that oblique tear, would proceed to miss 34 consecutive games and now be ineligible for offseason NBA Awards due to the minimum 65-game requirement.

Banchero looked as if he was well on his way to making another All-Star team and making his first All-NBA Team selection, but the injury stopped that from happening. So take the accolades with a grain of salt.

How injuries played a factor

Paolo would make his return to the floor in mid-January versus Giannis and the Bucks. Banchero in that performance recorded 34 points while also knocking down five shots from distance in just 27 minutes of play.

Although Banchero was nothing short of sensational in his first game back, it still took him time to get back into basketball shape, and the team time to get acclimated to having their star player back in the lineup.

After the All-Star break, when Banchero had gotten his conditioning back up and was ready to lead Orlando to a second-half playoff push, he played like an MVP candidate to finish out the year. Over those 24 games, Banchero averaged 29.0 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 4.5 assists.

Mind you, not only was Orlando an abysmal three-point shooting team, but Paolo was not the only player to sustain major injuries for the Magic last season. Weeks after Banchero tore his oblique, Franz Wagner sustained the same injury, which sidelined him for 20 straight games. Jalen Suggs only appeared in 35 games and ended up receiving knee surgery in March. And as mentioned before, Moe Wagner, who was having a career-high season, sustained an ACL injury that would sideline him for the remainder of the 2024-25 season.

This isn't to excuse Banchero completely, but to show in its full context why Banchero may not have the numbers that some NBA analysts would like when taking a look at the advanced metrics. Injuries to Paolo, his teammates, and a very poor roster in terms of shooting are all negative factors that worked against Banchero.

I'd be remiss if I didn't mention Jalen Williams also suffering an injury in early April. J-Dub sustained a torn ligament in his wrist just before the start of the playoffs. Williams, to his credit, was able to play through the injury, perform at a high level, and help OKC win the title.

Not to take anything away from J-Dub, but clearly the impact and severity of these injuries are completely different. Banchero, who tore an abdominal muscle, required immediate surgery and was not able to play through an injury of that magnitude. J-Dub, on the flip side, was able to power through and have a great postseason run, but these injuries and the recovery are not comparable at all.

Postseason expectations

Both the Thunder and Magic have made it to the postseason in back-to-back seasons, and while the Thunder have had significantly more success, let's continue to show the comparisons in their full context.

After the Thunder recorded the #1 seed in the West during the 2023-24 season, they ultimately were bounced out in the second round by the Dallas Mavericks. Thunder General Manager Sam Presti traded away Josh Giddey for Alex Caruso and proceeded to sign center Isaiah Hartenstein in free agency. Presti was willing to go 'all-in' on this roster, and it paid off as they were able to capitalize by winning a championship this season.

Simply put, expectations changed in OKC after the team recorded the top seed in the West, and the front office decided to make two big-time moves to put their team over the top. On the other hand, Orlando, who had just recorded a 47-win season and took the Cavs to seven games, played it rather conservatively by re-signing all of their UFAs, excluding Markelle Fultz, from the season prior and only bringing in Cory Joseph and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope in free agency.

The Magic were supposed to improve in the win column and their three-point shooting after adding a veteran and proven shooter in KCP, but neither of those things occurred. KCP shot the third-worst 3-point percentage of his career (34.2%), and Orlando sustained a litany of injuries, which derailed their entire season.

Therefore, when Orlando got to the postseason versus a healthy Celtics squad and they were missing both Jalen Suggs and Moe Wagner, the team was not expected to win the series. Hence, expectations continued to change in Orlando.

Banchero in historic company

One thing that is undeniable is that Banchero is a playoff riser, and quite frankly, one of the best postseason risers in the game today.

Not only are these phenomenal numbers, but his name is alongside all-time great players with some of the performances he's had so far. In his first playoff appearance in 2024, Banchero became the youngest player in NBA history to lead a team in PPG, RPG, and APG at just 21 years of age.

In his second postseason, Banchero tied Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Kobe Bryant with the most consecutive playoff games (7) with 25+ points in NBA history before turning age 23.

Banchero became only the third player in NBA history, age 22-or-younger, to compile 4,000+ points, 1,300+ rebounds, and 900+ assists during their first three NBA seasons, joining LeBron James and Luka Doncic.

And yes, J-Dub has had great performances in the postseason, and most notably with his 40-point performance in Game 5 of the NBA Finals. I'm not taking anything away from that, especially since he was one of the biggest reasons as to why OKC won the title this year.

High praise from all-time greats

If you don't want to hear it from me, hear it from a couple of future first ballot Hall of Famers in Kevin Durant and Draymond Green who have spoken glowingly of Banchero in the past.

"[Banchero] is a force, especially when he got the 3-ball going like that," Durant said. "He's basically a point guard out there. He's going to be a force for a long time, and this team is going to be a force if they stay together and continue to keep growing."

Draymond Green delivered a poetic postgame interview when asked about Banchero and regarded him as one of the "future faces of the league."

"He's a special special player," Green said. "You keep hearing this talk about 'faces of the NBA,' you know, the next young faces of the NBA. He's one of those guys that could and should be in those conversations. And I really think he was well on his way to it, then the injury came earlier this year."

It's not often at just 22 years of age, you have two of the greatest players to have ever played this game talking about Banchero in this light and singing his praises for what it's worth. If anything, that shows just how talented and great Banchero is, with still so much more room for improvement at such a young age.

Eye Test

There may not be much I can statistically prove when addressing the 'eye test,' but it's at least worth noting. Standing at 6-foot-10, weighing 250 pounds, Banchero is a force to be reckoned with, and his stature reminds you a lot of a younger Carmelo Anthony or even LeBron James with their similar playing styles.

Banchero has demonstrated time and time again that he knows how to use his size and physicality to bully his way to the rim, create space and leverage in the low post, size up defenders in isolation, and be a mismatch nightmare.

J-Dub stands 6-foot-5, weighing 211 pounds, and although he is extremely athletic and his skillset is well refined, he simply doesn't impose the same problems for opposing defenses compared to Banchero. Teams not only center their game plan and defensive focus around Banchero, but he's a significantly harder player to guard, especially once he gets downhill.

Final remarks

When making arguments and cases for guys being a franchise cornerstone, you're projecting how good and talented that player can be 5-10 years into their career. So far, we're three years into the careers of both of these players, and if anything, both players have overachieved and exceeded all expectations since coming into the league.

I don't think anyone would disagree that Banchero clearly has a higher ceiling when he reaches his prime, simply due to his athleticism and sheer size. This isn't to knock J-Dub in any way, shape, or form. Williams is a terrific player who has become one of the best defenders in the NBA, and was an integral part of the success of a championship team.

I simply believe that not only are the comparisons absurd considering the fact that we're debating a #1 option who is a bona fide uprising superstar, versus the #2 option playing alongside the MVP. One guy has the benefit of having a stacked roster top-to-bottom around him, and the other guy can't even get one consistent perimeter shooter on his team in three years of play.

To play devil's advocate, we've never seen J-Dub play as the #1 option in OKC for a significant stretch, and that's okay. I will admit again, Jalen Williams excels as the #2 option, and that's how we've come to know him and see him perform. Nobody really knows until we see it just how good or bad J-Dub may perform if he's put into that role. The same can't be said about Banchero, who was expected from day one to be 'the guy', carry the offensive load, and carry the franchise on his shoulders.

Both players are incredibly talented and excel in their roles on their respective teams. I don't deny that. However, Banchero has proven over the last three years that he is one of the best players in the NBA and a rising superstar. Paolo Banchero is not just better than Jalen Williams, but I would also bet that every NBA GM today would choose him over J-Dub to build a franchise from scratch.

In other words, teams build around gravity, not glue guys.