Simple things the Orlando Magic offense can do for an offensive breakthrough

Entering the Orlando Magic's playoff series with the Cleveland Cavaliers, everyone knew the biggest factor in the series.

Everyone knew the Magic and Cavs would be able to defend. What nobody knew is whether the Magic would be able to generate the offense to stay in the series.

After all, Orlando entered the postseason with the worst offensive rating among all 20 teams that played in the postseason, ranking 22nd with a 112.9 offensive rating.

That played out fairly quickly. In Games 1 and 2. The Magic were shockingly bad from beyond the arc and the Cavaliers seemingly were fine leaving the Magic open from three. The Magic went a combined 17 for 52 (32.7 percent) in those first two games of the playoffs. And, at least on paper, a good chunk of those shots were open and shots they should take.

The script quickly flipped when the team got home—Orlando shot 25 for 53 (47.2 percent) in Games 3 and 4.

But the scouting report on the Magic is clear. Orlando has to prove it can shoot to stay in the game.

This may remain the team's fatal flaw and the thing that is holding the team back offensively, despite what Jeff Weltman might try to argue after Jan. 1, when the team finished 15th in the league in 3-point field goal percentage for the rest of the season.

Offense has remained the Magic's biggest issue. They have not been outside the bottom 10 in offensive rating since Dwight Howard's departure in 2012. It has been a dozen years of offensive futility, especially considering the magic were the ones that revolutionized the league with their 3-point strategy.

The question then is just how close are the Magic to making that breakthrough on offense?

It is not that far actually. Orlando has some fairly simple things it can do to improve its offense next year. And a lot of it will come from players continuing their improvements from last year and maturing as players.

Shooting is the big key to improving the offense

Obviously, everyone has focused on the shooting aspect for the Orlando Magic. It is impossible to score more if you cannot put the ball in the basket. In the modern NBA, 3-point shooting is essential to creating spacing and driving lanes.

A lot of issues for the Magic are going to be resolved simply from making more shots. Duh.

They were 29th in the league in attempts per game last year and 24th in field goal percentage at 35.2 percent. That is just a lot of math that is difficult to make up.

It is hard to be a low-volume and low-percentage team. For instance, the Denver Nuggets averaged 31.2 3-point attempts per game (the fewest in the league) but shot 37.4 percent from three, which was 10th in the league. Or note that the Magic were the only team that made the playoff field in the bottom 10 in 3-point field goal percentage.

On a more granular level, the Magic shot just 37.8 percent on shots where the closest defender was six or more feet away last year according to NBA.com's tracking stats. They increased their corner threes from 6.8 attempts per game to 8.5 per game, but they still shot 36.7 percent on corner threes (they were at 40.8 percent in the 2023 season).

Orlando got good 3-point looks but missed them at an alarming rate too. That is a hint of what they can do moving forward.

The good news is the Magic should be able to improve. President of basketball operations Jeff Weltman noted in the Magic's exit interviews that they finished 15th in 3-point field goal percentage after Jan. 1. And they added 3-point shooting to the roster this offseason.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is an excellent 3-point shooter (40.6 percent last year and better than 40 perent in three of the last four years. Gary Harris was one of their better 3-point shooters and boosts the team's bench.

Jett Howard is a volume 3-point shooter getting ready to play his (essentially) rookie season. Tristan Da Silva is an improving 3-point shooter who made 39.5 percent of his threes last year (and 39.4 percent the year before as a junior).

Paolo Banchero improved last year as a 3-point shooter too at 33.9 percent and up to 40.0 percent in the playoffs. Jalen Suggs improved to a 39.9 percent 3-point shooter last year. It will be essential he remains at that level.

Franz Wagner is the only player who took a big step back as a shooter and that has been much written about. Even an improvement back to over 30 percent would improve the Magic's 3-point shooting.

Orlando also let one of its worst shooters and poorer spacers in Markelle Fultz leave in free agency.

It seems likely that next year, Orlando will shoot the ball better. There are more shooters in the lineup now and there will surely be an emphasis.

It would not take much improvement for the Magic to be a better offensive team. Even last year, if the Magic shot their same attempts at a league median percentage, their raw scoring average would have increased by 0.4 points per game.

There is plenty of opportunity to improve.

Shooting alone won't solve the Magic's problems

But it should be clear shooting will not solve the Orlando Magic's problems alone. That experiment above does not help the Magic catch the next team ahead of them in the standings. It is unclear what that would do their efficiency and offensive rating. But if Orlando wants a better offense, three-point shooting is not the main issue.

For instance, Jeff Weltman's point about the team's 3-point percentage improvement also needs this caveat: The Magic's offensive rating did not improve and only moved up one spot in the league rankings since Jan. 1.

The team has an offensive identity as a hard-driving team that puts pressure on the rim and gets to the foul line. They were again among the league leaders in free throw attempts. This is Paolo Banchero's game and is not going to change.

But even there, the Magic left a lot of points at the foul line. Orlando led the league with 24.4 free throw attempts per game, but ranked 26th with a 75.9 percent free throw percentage. Banchero stayed flat at 72.5 percent free throw shooting on 7.0 attempts per game. But if he wants to get to 25.0 points per game, improving as a free throw shooter is free points the Magic could pick up.

This is something the Magic can clearly control. Orlando left a lot of points on the board and making more free throws is an easy way to take care of the controllables.

Controlling possessions is key to offensive improvement

The bigger problem and the most solvable problem for the Orlando Magic is their turnovers.

Orlando was 26th in the league last year with a 15.0 percent turnover rate, predictably the worst among all teams that made the playoffs. Protecting possessions is a major factor for the Magic.

The truth is the Magic have to improve both their turnovers and their 3-point shooting. And that will enable the team to be more successful offensively.

It all starts with Paolo Banchero. He will have the ball the most. He averaged 3.1 turnovers per game. That is fairly normal for a star player. But Banchero will have to be smarter.

Franz Wagner may also have the ball in his hands a lot more. That might increase his 1.9 turnovers per game.

This is where the Magic not going after a point guard this offseason might hurt the most. If Orlando does not meaningfully improve its turnovers, it will be tough to improve its offense.

The Magic should get better though as they gain more experience. But turnovers will be a constant problem for this team.

Orlando's defense gets all those turnovers back to the team's credit. The Magic were second in the league in forcing a 15.4 percent turnover rate. Give the Magic credit, they know who they are at the end of the day.

Granted, this is a chicken-or-an-egg thing. Are the Magic's turnovers because there is no space to make plays and thus they are passing into tighter spaces?

Quite simply, if Orlando wants to score more, it needs to get more shot opportunities. And the Magic gave away a lot of possessions.

The Magic's path to victory this season is a fairly simple one. They will need to have one of the best defenses in the league again. Or they will need the offense to help pick up some of the slack and give the defense a cushion to make mistakes.

At the end of the day, if the Magic have ambitions of competing for titles. They need to start with improving their offense. The team has taken steps this year and there are small and simple improvements they can make to improve on offense.

That breakthrough may not be that far away.