The difficulty of the Magic's schedule
Let's start at why the Orlando Magic got the raw end from the schedule makers.
The only time the Magic were mentioned in the ESPN schedule reveal special on Thursday was this note: The Magic's schedule has a .506 opponent win percentage, the highest among all teams that made the Playoffs.
At least based on last year's records, the Magic will play one of the toughest schedules in the league. This is a very basic function to determine strength of schedule, but there is something to it.
Each season, teams face two teams from the other divisions three times (or they are supposed to). The variance in schedule difficulty starts with analyzing which teams you only have to face three times.
On first blush, this would seem like a benefit for the Magic. The Orlando Magic are scheduled to face the Boston Celtics (2 home/1 away), Chicago Bulls (2h/1a), Cleveland Cavaliers (1h/2a), Detroit Pistons (2h/1a), Milwaukee Bucks (1h/2a) and New York Knicks (2a/1h) only three times.
You might notice that is more than two teams from each division.
Because of the NBA Cup, the league releases only 80 of the 82 games during the schedule release in the offseason. They will add two games during the week of Dec. 10-17. Of course, everyone hopes those two games are difficult ones because that means they have advanced to the knockout rounds of the tournament (remember: those games count toward the regular season).
But if the Magic do not make the knockout round, it means they will likely face two of these six teams that week. That leaves a good chance the Magic will miss out on a fourth game with the Pistons, a team that likely would drop their opponent win percentage.
It is not clear what rules the NBA follows to fill these games—last year the Magic got a road trip to face the Cavaliers and a home game against the Pistons -- but it would follow that the league would try to ensure they limit teams to facing each other four times (the only time they would go over is if they play each other in the NBA Cup quarterfinals or semifinals).
That means the Magic are more likely to add one of these (on paper) difficult opponents to their schedule this December. And that will be added to a difficult part of the schedule.
The Magic will be in the middle of one of two particularly brutal stretches in their schedule when the NBA Cup comes around.
Beginning Dec. 3 with the NBA Cup game against the New York Knicks, the Orlando Magic play nine straight games against playoff opponents—Dec. 3 at the Knicks; Dec. 4 and 6 at the Philadelphia 76ers; Dec. 8 vs. the Phoenix Suns; Dec. 19 vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder; Dec. 21 and Dec. 26 vs. the Miami Heat; Dec. 23 vs. the Boston Celtics; and Dec. 27 vs. the Knicks.
That does not include the two games during NBA Cup elimination week. That could make for 11 straight playoff opponents.
The other brutal stretch is a Jan. 6-19 stretch of seven straight games against playoff opponents—Jan. 6 at the New York Knicks; Jan. 9 vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves; Jan. 10 vs. the Milwaukee Bucks; Jan. 12 vs. the Philadelphia 76ers; Jan. 14 at the Bucks; Jan. 17 at the Boston Celtics; and Jan. 19 vs. the Denver Nuggets.
Of course, these are the stretches good teams have to learn how to win. And the Magic should feel confident they can win these games.