The NBA's trade season has officially opened.
On Dec. 15, most contracts signed in the offseason become eligible to be traded, making virtually every player in the league open the wheelings and dealings of the NBA.
Of course, nothing happens immediately. Teams are still figuring themselves. The ability to make trades does not mean everyone is rushing to do them. There is still a lot of basketball to be played before the Feb. 5 trade deadline.
But it is time to begin considering what everyone should do.
The Magic are contenders now. Contenders for the first time in more than a decade.
While Orlando has not seen its full complement of players enough to draw too many conclusions -- the team's opening night starting lineup has played only 117 minutes in 11 games together this season -- the team should already have an idea of what its trade deadline goals should be and who the team should target.
But there is another goal that will likely take priority at this year's trade deadline. One that is less likely to excite fans.
Orlando's main goal this February might simply be to avoid the tax and cut some payroll, delaying the inevitable tax penalties. The team can still improve even by employing this strategy. But it could lead to an underwhelming trade deadline -- especially when it seems like some of the Magic's competition might be far more aggressive.
The reality of the modern NBA is that trades do not exist in a vacuum. They exist within the context of the various salary cap restrictions and planning for the team's future.
And Orlando finds itself in a bit of a pickle as this year's trade deadline approaches.
Explaining the tax
The Orlando Magic are slated to pay the tax for the first time in 12 years if they do not change anything. That is a distinction usually reserved for the best teams in the league.
Orlando is also preparing next year to be above the first apron -- and all of it attendant penalties -- with Paolo Banchero's extension kicking in. That is why this season is one where the Magic are planing and aligning their tax bill more than anything.
According to Spotrac, Orlando is $5.6 million over the luxury tax line this year. That is certainly close enough to try to get under and avoid starting the repeater clock.
That is really what this is all about -- the repeater clock.
In the NBA's CBA, teams are penalized with a dollar-for-dollar tax for any amount over the tax line up to $5.7 million (for this season, it changes every year; there is math involved). However they are subject to a repeater tax, starting at a three-to-one rate, if they are above the tax line for three of the previous four seasons.
Orlando would like to avoid starting that clock, considering the team already has $200.2 million committed to next season, not including Jonathan Isaac's $14.5 million in likely guaranteed salary. Next year's tax line is projected to be at $200 million.
Orlando is already guaranteed to be a tax team next year. That is why there is no reason to start the clock now.
As the trade deadline approaches, the Magic are likely looking for ways to improve the team. But unless they feel they are ready to win a title this year and that a player they are acquiring is the missing piece, they likely do not want to increase their payroll this season.
They are looking to cut and avoid the repeater clock starting before they must deal with it.
Who is on the chopping block?
That does not mean the Orlando Magic will not hunt for ways to improve. They have plenty of salary and players they can try to put on the market to get under the tax and take back valuable rotation players -- even if it means taking on some long-term salary or giving up part of their cache of second-round picks (the Magic cannot trade any firsts).
A straight salary dump of someone like Jett Howard at $5.5 million will not get the team under the tax. Howard is a much-improved player this year, but the Magic opted not to pick up his fourth-year team option in a clear salary-cap casualty.
They will need to make some moves and be willing to move some key players.
The team also might shop around Jonathan Isaac and his $15 million contract, with all its various non-guarantees. Isaac is still an excellent defender and that should have value. But Orlando likely needs more offensive production at that salary slot.
If the Magic have a big move in them, it is likely moving Isaac for a more solid offensive player.
Tyus Jones has also been a disappointment this season. And moving him and his $8 million salary would clear a path for Jase Richardson to get more playing time. Or it might mean the Magic are looking for a steadier and more reliable defensive backup point guard to get them through the Playoffs.
The player most teams likely will want most is Goga Bitadze.
Bitadze makes $8.3 million this year and has one more year left on his contract. He is clearly worthy of being in an NBA rotation somewhere as an excellent defender, shot blocker and putback artist. There are already some suggestions teams are going to call on Bitadze.
The Magic's appetite to move Goga Bitadze likely depends on how quickly Moe Wagner re-establishes himself in the team's rotation and gets back up and running after his return from a torn ACL.
And hanging in the background of all this is that the Magic can fill their final roster spot starting Jan. 9, as they currently sit only $1.2 million below their first apron hard cap (set because they used the mid-level exception to sign Jones).
Orlando certainly has players it will test the market for. Whether the team can get quality players for them will be the bigger question. The Magic are likely only looking to improve the roster. They will not compromise their standing in the Eastern Conference.
But the goal is still abundantly clear. Getting below the tax would benefit the Magic greatly down the line, giving them more years where ownership is willing to pay the tax as their payroll continues to grow.
It is not the most exciting thing for fans to hear. But it is the reality of the modern NBA.