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- Tickets: $23-$327+ on StubHub
- Season Series: Bucks 114, Magic 109 in Milwaukee on Dec. 10; Tonight in Orlando; Jan. 15 in Milwaukee; March 8 in Milwaukee
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Orlando Magic: Stats and 3 Keys to Watch
Milwaukee | Orlando | |
|---|---|---|
100.1 | Pace | 96.8 |
112.5 | Off. Rtg. | 108.3 |
110.5 | Def. Rtg. | 106.5 |
56.3 | eFG% | 51.2 |
23.5 | O.Reb.% | 30.5 |
14.1 | TO% | 15.7 |
24.6 | FTR | 26.4 |
3. The Paolo Impact
The Orlando Magic upgraded Paolo Banchero to QUESTIONABLE on their injury report for Thursday's loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves. They announced he had been a full participant in practice Wednesday. Everyone on the team expressed their excitement for Banchero's return.
All that is left is for him to take the court and play once again. If all goes right, that appears to be coming Friday night against the Milwaukee Bucks.
Banchero's return is going to be transformational. He averaged 29.0 points, 8.8 rebounds and 5.6 assists per game in the five games he played before he tore his right oblique.
It is not just the counting stats for Banchero though. It is the gravity and attention he creates from defenses.
The Magic averaged 25.6 "wide-open" 3-point attempts per game with Banchero playing compared to 19.4 per game since Oct. 31. He creates tension downhill and forces the defense to collapse and foul him. Banchero averaged 11.8 free throw attempts per game and the team had a 33.0 percent free throw rate before Banchero's injury and 25.5 percent since.
Banchero is not going to do all that in his first game. He is likely going to be playing under some minute restriction and he will need to get his feet under him. Everyone should temper their expectations.
But he will still make an impact immediately.
2. First Quarter Struggles
The Orlando Magic all lamented their poor first quarter in their loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves on Thursday. They felt they did not come out with the proper energy and got put on their heels a bit early. Trailing 29-18 is a tough place to start.
This has been an unfortunate trend for the Magic that has continued from something they struggled with last year. Orlando gets off to a slow start regularly.
The Magic are 20th in the league with a -3.3 net rating in the first quarter. More alarmingly, the Magic are 22nd in the league with a 114.7 defensive rating in the first quarter. It does take a while for the Magic to get themselves going. That is something everyone can freely observe.
That gets Orlando in trouble. Especially now that the Magic are without so many key offensive players, they can find themselves down by some hefty margins.
Orlando is capable of coming back. But that is not a sustainable thing. The Magic need to get off to better starts.
1. Shifts in Milwaukee
The last time the Orlando Magic faced the Milwaukee Bucks, they pushed them to the brink in the NBA Cup quarterfinal matchup. If not for a few late-game lapses, the Magic would have gone to Las Vegas. Instead, the Bucks won and went on to win the NBA Cup.
While the Milwaukee Bucks tried not to celebrate their NBA Cup victory too much, they faced the same NBA Cup hangover the Los Angeles Lakers faced last year.
Milwaukee is 5-5 since the NBA Cup victory with losses to the Brooklyn Nets (twice!), Chicago Bulls and Portland Trail Blazers. They dealt with some injuries to Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo that they are still working their way through (they are both PROBABLE to play Friday).
The Bucks also started bringing Khris Middleton permanently off the bench as they try to settle their rotations. Middleton was just returning from injury when the Magic faced the Bucks in December.
A lot feels unsettled with Milwaukee. But the team has Antetokounmpo and Lillard. And that helps a lot.
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Orlando Magic: Injury Report & Projected Lineups
Milwaukee Bucks Injury Report
- Giannis Antetokounmpo - PROBABLE (Right Patella Tendinopathy)
- Damian Lillard - PROBABLE (Left Calf Contusion)
- Khris Middleton - PROBABLE (Bilateral Ankle Injury Management)
- Ryan Rollins - QUESTIONABLE (Non-COVID Illness)
- Tyler Smith - OUT (G-League Assignment)
- Chris Livingston - OUT (G-League Assignment)
- AJ Johnson - OUT (G-League Assignment)
Orlando Magic Injury Report
- Paolo Banchero - QUESTIONABLE (Return to Competition Conditioning)
- Franz Wagner - OUT (Torn Right Oblique)
- Jalen Suggs - OUT (Low Back Strain)
- Moe Wagner - OUT (Torn Left ACL)
- Gary Harris - OUT (Left Hamstring Strain)
- Mac McClung - OUT (G-League Two-Way)
Projected Lineups
Milwaukee | Orlando | |
|---|---|---|
Damian Lillard | PG | Cole Anthony |
Andre Jackson Jr. | SG | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope |
Taurean Prince | SF | Tristan da Silva |
Giannis Antetokounmpo | PF | Paolo Banchero |
Brook Lopez | C | Goga Bitadze |
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Orlando Magic: Prediction
Our Record: 25-14/18-21 ATS
The Orlando Magic will get a major lift from Paolo Banchero's return. Even if he does not play his full complement of minutes, Banchero is going to pick up the energy for the team and in the building. That will make for a difficult environment for the Milwaukee Bucks.
Not that it is not one they can handle. They are a veteran team. But right now, their focus seems to be straying. They seem to play up and down to their competition. And they are not consistently getting contributions from players outside their main two players.
The Magic have always responded from their poor games. They beat the New York Knicks on Monday with a spirited effort after a lax game against the Utah Jazz. Some early confidence will go a long way for them too. A strong start helps build belief and make the rest of the game easier.
It is hard to imagine the Magic are not coming out fired up with Banchero likely back in the lineup. And that could be enough to tip this one in their favor.