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- Season Series: Today in Orlando; April 5 in New Orleans
Orlando Magic vs. New Orleans Pelicans: Stats and 3 Keys to Watch
New Orleans | Orlando | |
|---|---|---|
102.0 | Pace | 100.8 |
111.4 | Off. Rtg. | 114.0 |
118.6 | Def. Rtg. | 113.2 |
52.1 | eFG% | 52.8 |
31.4 | O.Reb.% | 31.6 |
14.4 | TO% | 13.8 |
27.7 | FTR | 31.5 |
1. Moe Wagner returns
The Orlando Magic have had a happier disposition the last few days. There is certainly a sense that their days of holding the boat steady with an undermanned crew are nearing an end. They could see the light at the end of the tunnel for many of the major injuries the team is facing.
They get their first bit of relief Sunday when Moe Wagner returns from the torn ACL he suffered on Dec. 21, 2024. Wagner is listed as PROBABLE and is expected to make his debut Sunday afternoon.
No one should expect Wagner to return and immediately put up the career-best numbers he had last year -- 12.9 points and 4.9 rebounds per game with 36.0-percent 3-point shooting. This will really test Jamahl Mosley's theory that Moe Wagner falls out of bed with 10 points.
But Wagner's return will undoubtedly be a welcomed energy boost for a team hunting for some energy and excitement. They need his presence because Wagner has such a good understanding of his game and how best to deploy it.
The Magic have dealt with constant injuries the last few years. But Wagner's departure marked a key change.
Orlando went from having one of the highest-scoring benches in the league -- 40.0 points per game, fifth in the league, before Wagner's injury and 33.3 points per game, 21st in the league, after the injury.
This year, Orlando has struggled to get consistency off its bench thanks to all the injuries. The Magic are 25th in the league with 32.2 points per game off their bench. One of the team's biggest superpowers has become one of its weaknesses.
Wagner will not fix that overnight and all by himself. But his return signals a major change for the Magic.
2. 3-point shooting variance
The story of Friday's loss to the Philadelphia 76ers was largely about the team's lack of depth, as Paul George took over the early part of the fourth quarter to pull the Sixers ahead by double digits. Part of the story was Paolo Banchero's struggles to impose himself on the game and carry the team to the finish line in another fourth-quarter offensive drought.
Part of the story was the Magic's pitiful 3-point shooting. Orlando made only 4 of 29 3-pointers (Phialdelphia made only 4 of 28. The Magic made only 1 of 15 wide-open 3-pointers, according to NBA.com.
Bad shooting nights happen. Every team will have a game where they do not hit shots. And some of the Magic's offensive problems may have been the team pressing knowing the shots were not falling.
The question is whether this is something that is a one-game instance of really bad shooting or something that will linger.
The Magic are an improved 3-point shooting team, but still rank 29th in 3-point field goal percentage. They are still strugling to hit threes consistently and will ultimately pass on attempts. The Magic take only 32.6 attempts per game, 25th in the league.
The New Orleans Pelicans shoot the worst percentage in the league. And so this game could play out very similarly to Friday's game. The team that makes its threes could have a major advantage.
3. Fast-break slowdown
The Orlando Magic talked all training camp and preseason about their desire to play faster and push the tempo. They wanted to get out in transition more and use their defense to feed their offense. They wanted to do a better job using their defense to feed their offense.
The defense has slowed down during the last 15 games. And that has affectd the team's ability to get out in transition.
Orlando is seventh in the league overall with 16.7 fastbreak points per game. But in the last 15, the team has dropped to 21st with 13.9 fastbreak points per game.
The Magic's struggles on defense are a big part of this. Orlando is not getting stops, rebounding and getting turnovers to get out and run. All of those struggles are tied together.
The Magic know they need to run more to counteract their poor half-court offense. Getting caught in the half-court too much is a big factor in the Magic's struggles in the last few weeks.
Orlando Magic vs. New Orleans Pelicans: Injury Report & Projected Lineups
New Orleans Pelicans Injury Report
- Dejounte Murray - OUT (Right Achilles Rupture)
- Herbert Jones - OUT (Right Ankle Sprain)
- Jose Alvarado - OUT (Left Oblique Strain)
- Saddiq Bey - OUT (Right Hip Flexor Strain)
- Hunter Dickinson - OUT (G-League Two-Way)
Orlando Magic Injury Report
- Franz Wagner - OUT (Left High Ankle Sprain)
- Jalen Suggs - OUT (Right Knee MCL Contusion)
- Wendell Carter - AVAILABLE (Right Hip Strain)
- Moe Wagner - PROBABLE (Left Knee Injury Recovery)
- Tristan da Silva - QUESTIONABLE (Back Spasms)
- Jonathan Isaac - QUESTIONABLE (Illness)
- Colin Castleton - OUT (G-League Two-Way)
Projected Starting Lineups
New Orleans | Orlando | |
|---|---|---|
Jeremiah Fears | PG | Anthony Black |
Bryce McGowens | SG | Desmond Bane |
Trey Murphy III | SF | Noah Penda |
Zion Williamson | PF | Paolo Banchero |
Derik Queen | C | Wendell Carter |
Orlando Magic vs. New Orleans Pelicans: Prediction
Our Record: 23-16/16-23 ATS
The Orlando Magic are in call-and-response right now. They have alternated wins and losses in each of the last 12 games. That would make this a win if the pattern holds.
Perhaps the Magic have gotten lucky playing a soft part of their schedule when they have been this inconsistent. Except for losses to the Charlotte Hornets and Washington Wizards, they have not lost to any teams outside the postseason picture.
That is not exactly inspiring confidence. Right now, the Magic are just trying to find some rhythm and consistency. Until then, they will respond like they always do.
The New Orleans Pelicans snapped a nine-game losing streak with their win over the Washington Wizards on Friday. They have some intriguing players and can be a major threat. But they rarely put all the pieces together long enough to win with the injuries they are facing.
Any kind of focused effort from the Magic -- and avoiding any prolonged lulls -- should be enough for Orlando to get a win and head to Europe trying to figure out how to build a winning streak.