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- Tickets: $2-$160+ on StubHub
- Season Series: Bucks 114, Magic 109 in Milwaukee on Dec. 10; Bucks 109, Magic 106 in Orlando on Jan. 10; Tonight in Milwaukee; March 8 in Milwaukee
Orlando Magic vs. Milwaukee Bucks: Stats and 3 Keys to Watch
Orlando | Milwaukee | |
|---|---|---|
96.7 | Pace | 100.0 |
108.5 | Off. Rtg. | 112.7 |
106.7 | Def. Rtg. | 111.4 |
51.2 | eFG% | 56.2 |
30.6 | O.Reb.% | 24.0 |
15.6 | TO% | 14.0 |
26.7 | FTR | 24.3 |
3. 4th Quarter Magic
The Orlando Magic suffered something rare on Friday—a loss in a close game.
The Magic are 11-7 in clutch situations, the sixth-best win percentage in clutch situations and the eighth-most wins in the league in clutch situations.
Of course, the record does not tell the whole story. The Magic rallied from seven down with 3:41 to play to give themselves a chance to tie the game at the foul line with 10 seconds left. They came up short that game, but the Magic are a team nobody wants to see late.
Ask the Philadelphia 76ers. Orlando rallied from five down with 4:10 to play to storm back and win the game, making several big plays including a huge offensive rebound by Trevelin Queen that led to Paolo Banchero's big shot to make it a three-point game.
The Magic lead the league in fourth-quarter net rating with +12.8 points per 100 possessions. Orlando has a ridiculous 100.0 defensive rating in the fourth quarter, leading the league. Jonathan Isaac said the quiet part out loud: the Magic feel they can wear teams down in the fourth quarter with their intensity and length.
The message has been clear: If the Magic can get games to the fourth quarter, they become difficult to beat.
2. Defending Giannis
The Orlando Magic and Milwaukee Bucks seem to be on a collision course for a playoff series—even with the Indiana Pacers making a recent push up the standings—and the teams are going to test how to defend each other.
With the Magic undermanned and Paolo Banchero still working his way back from injury, the question is on the Magic side: How do they defend Giannis Antetokounmpo?
They struggled to find answers for Antetokounmpo on Friday. He scored 41 points on 19-for-29 shooting. He dominated the game and the Magic had no answers and very few options to defend him.
They tried defending him one on one with Goga Bitadze, and Giannis Antetokounmpo just bowled him over and got to the basket in the post. The Magic went to Jonathan Isaac and he fared only a little better. Antetokounmpo just had it going in that game.
The Magic are probably going to try some different schemes and coverages on Antetokounmpo. They will likely try to hide Paolo Banchero and keep him from direct matchups with Giannis Antetokounmpo too. But Banchero will get his try too.
1. With or without Paolo
Paolo Banchero's return has been everything the Orlando Magic could have hoped for. He scored 34 points against the Milwaukee Bucks on Friday and followed that up with 20 points, eight rebounds and six assists on Sunday against the Philadelphia 76ers.
His impact goes well beyond that.
In the two games since he came back, the Magic have a 116.7 offensive rating with Banchero on the floor—5.0 points per 100 possessions better than the team's average in the last two games and a number that would rank fifth in the entire league if it stretched to a full game.
Yes, Banchero has created a functioning offense in his limited minutes.
It is when he is off the floor the Magic run into trouble. Orlando has a 101.2 offensive rating when Banchero is off the floor in the last two games. That is not ideal and far worse than the team's frustratingly low offensive rating.
Right now, Banchero has been the main offensive engine. And the Magic are still expanding his minutes.
Orlando Magic vs. Milwaukee Bucks: Injury Report & Projected Lineups
Orlando Magic Injury Report
- Franz Wagner - OUT (Return to Competition Reconditioning)
- Jalen Suggs - OUT (Low Back Strain)
- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - QUESTIONABLE (Left Knee Strain)
- Goga Bitadze - QUESTIONABLE (Right Hip Contusion)
- Moe Wagner - OUT (Torn Left ACL)
- Gary Harris - OUT (Left Hamstring Strain)
- Jett Howard - DOUBTFUL (Left Ankle Sprain)
- Mac McClung - OUT (G-League Two-Way)
Milwaukee Bucks Injury Report (From Tuesday)
- Giannis Antetokounmpo - PROBABLE (Right Patella Tendinopathy)
- Khris Middleton - OUT (Bilateral Ankle Injury Management)
- Gary Trent Jr. - QUESTIONABLE (Left Hip Flexor Strain)
- Ryan Rollins - QUESTIONABLE (Non-COVID Illness)
- Tyler Smith - OUT (G-League On Assignment)
- Chris Livingston - OUT (G-League On Assignment)
- AJ Johnson - OUT (G-League On Assingment)
Projected Lineups
Orlando | Milwaukee | |
|---|---|---|
Cole Anthony | PG | Damian Lillard |
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | SG | Andre Jackson |
Tristan da Silva | SF | Taurean Prince |
Paolo Banchero | PF | Giannis Antetokounmpo |
Wendell Carter | C | Brook Lopez |
Orlando Magic vs. Milwaukee Bucks: Prediction
Our Record: 26-15/20-21 ATS
The Orlando Magic are facing a lot of injuries. That has been the state of things for the Magic since late October. The team is not going to use that as an excuse and neither are we anymore. The Magic are capable of finding a way to eke out victories. Even against quality teams like the Milwaukee Bucks.
The Milwaukee Bucks are coming off a 130-115 win over the Sacramento Kings on Tuesday. That is a very different team than who the Magic are. And that is a big response from the Milwaukee Bucks' blowout loss to the New York Knicks on Sunday.
This is why I am giving the Magic a slight advantage in this one. This game is all about how a team responds.
The Magic felt they needed to make sure they got one against the Knicks and did so even without their three best players. They feel like they owe the Bucks one after two close losses in their matchups so far this season.
The Bucks have been wildly inconsistent this season. They made their response to the loss to the Knicks on Tuesday. They have now won four of their last five games. But they still struggle against the elite teams. The Magic have been the lone exception so far.
The game will come down to how the Magic play with Paolo Banchero off the floor. If they can survive those minutes, they can win the game.