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- Season Series: Magic 125, Heat 121 in Orlando on Oct. 22; Magic 106, Heat 105 in Orlando on Dec. 5; Magic 117, Heat 108 in Orlando on Dec. 9 (NBA Cup Quarterfinal); Tonight in Miami; March 14 in Miami
Orlando Magic at Miami Heat: Stats and 3 Keys to Watch
Orlando | Miami | |
|---|---|---|
100.4 | Pace | 104.8 |
113.6 | Off. Rtg. | 113.9 |
114.2 | Def. Rtg. | 112.6 |
52.5 | eFG% | 53.5 |
31.9 | O.Reb.% | 29.7 |
13.9 | TO% | 13.6 |
30.9 | FTR | 26.2 |
1. The Pace Problem
The Orlando Magic's big push to reform their offense in the offseason was to focus on playing faster and getting up the court quicker. The Magic aimed to be better in transition especially and use their defense to create some more offense.
Orlando had to pull back on the pace lever a bit early in the season because the defense was struggling to keep up. But the Magic are noticeably slower now than they were at the start of the season.
Orlando is still ranked eighth with 22.6 transition possessions per game and ninth with 114.8 points per 100 transition possessions, according to data from Synergy Sports. The Magic have greatly improved their transition play from last year.
But since Franz Wagner's injury on Dec. 7, the Magic are averaging 21.7 transition possessions per game and score 109.2 points per 100 transition possessions.
Orlando's pace in terms of possessions has gone from a season average of 101.3 possessions per 48 minutes before Wagner's injury to 99.4 after the injury. That is not necessarily dispositive. But if it feels like the Magic are playing slower, there are plenty of numbers to suggest they are not getting the same kind of looks they envisioned at the beginning of the seaosn.
Figuring out a way to pick up the pace will go a long way to revitalizing the offense -- and a lot of that has to do with stops.
The Miami Heat were in the same boat a few weeks ago. They still play at a breakneck speed and lead the league in pace. But their offensive struggles have largely gone away as they have started to power their way up the standings.
2. The Paolo Vibes
The vibes with Paolo Banchero are. . . improving.
A few weeks ago, it felt like Banchero was still working his way through his injury recovery and giving in to the frustration of this season more than anyone else. He was not giving the team what it needed for a player with such a high usage.
Banchero's numbers have largely righted themselves, and Monday's 37-point effort against the Cleveland Cavaliers was exactly what the team needs from a star player. He kept them in the game, and if anybody could hit an open shot, they likely would have had a chance to win.
Banchero is averaging 24.7 points per game, 9.5 rebounds per game and 5.7 assists per game in his last 13 games. He has 50.2/38.9/76.6 shooting splits. Despite all the hand-wringing, it is looking like he will finish with career highs in field goal percentage and maybe even true shooting percentage.
He has taken some huge steps forward despite some justified criticism and the frustration this season.
That still will not quiet the noise.
There have been whispers and rumblings for a long time that there has been some disconnection between Paolo Banchero and coach Jamahl Mosley. Tim McMahon is the first mainstream reporter to put legs on the report, telling The Hoop Collective that there is a bit of a fissure.
Banchero is playing well, but the vibes are still not great around him and this team.
3. Season Series Matters
The Orlando Magic are trailing in the standings now.
They are tied in the loss column with the Miami Heat (the Heat have two more wins) and three losses behind the fourth-place Toronto Raptors. They theoretically could make up two of those losses with the Raptors with wins in their next two games (assuming the Toronto Raptors lose to the New York Knicks on Wednesday).
The point is that the standings are going to continue to get jumbled every day. The Magic still control a lot of their own destiny.
That is also why games like this matter. Games against direct competition are vital for the Magic climbing the standings. They have already lost some of those opportunities.
Orlando has already won its season series with Miami thanks to two wins at home and a third win in the NBA Cup quarterfinal. But the Miami Heat are the only team the Orlando Magic have a season series lead on among the Eastern Conference playoff teams -- they are tied with the Detroit Pistons and New York Knicks
Orlando has that advantage with Miami. But the team needs these kinds of wins to build confidence and climb the standings. These are essentially already Playoff-type games.
Orlando Magic at Miami Heat: Injury Report & Projected Lineups
Orlando Magic Injury Report
- Franz Wagner - OUT (Left High Ankle Sprain Injury Management)
- Colin Castleton - OUT (G-League Two-Way)
Miami Heat Injury Report
- Norman Powell - QUESTIONABLE (Low Back Tightness)
- Tyler Herro - OUT (Right Costochondral; Injury to the Ribs)
- Kel'el Ware - QUESTIONABLE (Right Hamstring Strain)
- Jaime Jaquez Jr. - AVAILABLE (Left Knee Sprain)
- Davion Mitchell - QUESTIONABLE (Left Shoulder Sprain)
- Andrew Wiggins - AVAILABLE (Left Hamstring Tightness)
- Pelle Larsson - AVAILABLE (Left 3rd Mallet; Finger)
- Terry Rozier - OUT (Not With Team)
- Vladislav Goldin - OUT (G-League Two-Way)
- Jahmir Young - OUT (G-League Two-Way)
Projected Starting Lineups
Orlando | Miami | |
|---|---|---|
Jalen Suggs | PG | Kaspara Jakucionis |
Desmond Bane | SG | Norman Powell |
Anthony Black | SF | Andrew Wiggins |
Paolo Banchero | PF | Pelle Larsson |
Wendell Carter | C | Bam Adebayo |
Orlando Magic at Miami Heat: Prediction
Our Record: 26-19/19-26 ATS
It feels like I am speaking about this team like a tanking team when I say, "This team is close to a win." But that is the reality. They are grasping for anything positive to build on. That has not led to wins quite yet.
The Orlando Magic seemed to respond the right way with their energy in their pair of losses to the Cleveland Cavaliers. Abysmally poor shooting derailed any hopes of winning.
After shooting 10 for 32 on wide-open threes in Saturday's loss, the Magic shot 6 for 18 on those shots in Monday's loss. The shot quality was not nearly as good as Orlando struggled t get into the paint.
It still feels like when one thing goes wrong for the Magic, everything falls apart. Orlando has not been able to get itself off the mat. And that resilience is the difference right now. The Magic have to handle adversity so much better.
That is all on them. And Orlando has a lot to think about itself to get this ship moving in the right direction.
A Miami Heat team that will pounce on mistakes with their pace and catch a lethargic Orlando Magic team napping is not what the team is hoping to see. The Magic need to be sharp to win this game. And right now seeing is not believing even if there are some positive signs.