The Orlando Magic have struggled through the first half of the season and are struggling to tread water in a mediocre Eastern Conference. One player in particular who has struggled is All-Star forward Paolo Banchero. As his counterpart in the Western Conference has an All-Star year of his own, the question has to be asked: should the Magic have drafted Chet Holmgren over Paolo Banchero?
The Magic drafted Banchero first overall in the 2022 NBA Draft and on the surface got everything they could have dreamed of. He won Rookie of the Year and put up 20 points per game in his first season, was named an All-Star in his second season, and last year battled through injuries to put up 29.4 points per game in the playoffs.
Yet underneath the basic facts is a more concerning one: Banchero seems overmatched as a No. 1 option. That isn't to say he doesn't have the mentality for it, and his collection of game-winning and go-ahead buckets this season shows he isn't afraid of the moment. Yet what is also evident is that right now, Banchero cannot create shots efficiently enough for himself or others to drive a good offense.
Paolo Banchero is not a No. 1 option
The 6'10" Banchero is averaging 20.9 points per game, down five full points from last year's number, and that is despite Franz Wagner missing significant time this season and opening up shots for Banchero. He is taking fewer shots per game overall, and his efficiency on those shots is tanking. He is hitting just 26.9 percent of his 3-pointers and a pedestrian 50.9 percent of his 2-point baskets. That's livable for a guard; that's highly concerning for a power forward.
For his career, Banchero is shooting only 44.6 percent from the field. Out of all 59 players who have attempted at least 3,000 shots over those four seasons, Banchero ranks 54th in true-shooting percentage, ahead of only unconscious chuckers like Kyle Kuzma and Dillon Brooks and overhyped shooting guard Jalen Green, plus two inefficient playmakers in Dejounte Murray and Russell Westbrook. Hardly superstar company.
Now when you add in the fact that the Magic's best player (apologies, but it's not Banchero, not with how much he damages the team's offense), Franz Wagner, also plays the same position and is hampered by Banchero's lack of floor-spacing beside him, and you get a roster construction issue that puts a ceiling on the team if Banchero cannot break through.
Perhaps he will, and it's almost certain the Magic will give him time to turn into an efficient scorer. They functionally cannot trade him right now anyway giving the poison pill provision in his contract. What they can do, however, is look back on the 2022 NBA Draft and wonder what might have been different.
When Orlando was on the clock, it was an open question as to who they would draft. The 2022 class had a Top 3 of draft prospects by the time June rolled around: Auburn big Jabari Smith Jr., Gonzaga big Chet Holmgren, and Duke power forward Paolo Banchero.
The Magic somewhat surprisingly drafted Banchero No. 1 after rumors that they would go in a different direction. The Thunder were then free to take Holmgren at No. 2, and Smith went to the Houston Rockets with the No. 3 pick.
Looking back, the Magic likely regret not drafting Chet Holmgren.
The Magic regret drafting Paolo Banchero
Holmgren has battled through a pair of significant injuries himself, the first of which wiped out his entire rookie season. Banchero has played in 78 more regular-season games, essentially an entire season's worth. Yet the advanced metrics do not lie: Holmgren is driving winning basketball, and Banchero is not.
Chet is shooting 57.7 percent from the field and 38.4 percent from deep, pulling down 8.5 rebounds per game and adding a pair of blocks each contest. He grades out as a really good offensive player and an elite defensive one, and he may be the front-runner for Defensive Player of the Year, considering Victor Wembanyama is close to being ineligible for games missed.
Holmgren isn't built to be the No. 1 offensive engine, but he knows it -- Banchero doesn't. And Holmgren's game fits perfectly alongside another star, as it did all the way to a championship last season. When you aren't good enough to be the No. 1, you need a skill set that can scale next to another star. Banchero has a long way to go to either be worthy of the top slot or to fit next to someone else; Holmgren is already there.
Imagining what the Magic would be like if they had taken Holmgren over Banchero is tantalizing. Jalen Suggs, Desmond Bane, Franz Wagner and Chet Holmgren is an elite two-way group, with the floor-spacing neccesary to compete. They could insert a traditional center into the mix, such as Wendell Carter Jr. or Goga Bitadze, or they could go smaller with Tristan da Silva or another wing. 3-guard lineups with Anthony Black would be somewhat small but bring a lot of two-way impact as well.
That is a team that could win at the highest levels. It would ask a lot of Franz Wagner, and he hasn't proven himself to be that elite No. 1 option, but he has done a better job than Banchero The "what if" game is intriguing, but can also leave a bitter taste in the mouth of fans.
Until Banchero figures it out or the Magic move on, they will continue to regret not drafting Chet Holmgren.