The Orlando Magic cannot realistically trade Paolo Banchero this season. Given his recent struggles and the massive questions about his future, however, they might wish that they could - a reality that would have seemed unthinkable just a few short months ago.
This has not exactly been the season that the Magic expected. At the halfway point they are 22-18, in sixth-place in the Eastern Conference and looking up at the best teams in the league. There was real optimism that this was the year that things came together and the Magic rose to the top of the East and challenged for a return to the NBA Finals for the first time since 2009.
That has not been the script, however, as injuries have once again beaten them down and exposed flaws on the roster. Of late, the task has been given to Paolo Banchero to lead the way as Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs are in the midst of extended absences. Banchero has not been up to the task; his scoring is down, his jumper has entirely deserted him, and when the Magic have won recently, it has been by the skin of their teeth.
What can the Magic do to change things? One option is to wait to get healthy, but there is no guarantee things will all come together when their four stars are on the court together. It also pushes back the clock on when they can get questions answered as to whether this is the right long-term group for them, or if another big move is required to finally push them up the ladder.
As fans look at this quagmire, they are asking the same questions as the Orlando front office. Is there a big swing to make, similar to the Desmond Bane deal, that could change their fate and lift the ceiling? Names such as Giannis Antetokounmpo and Anthony Davis are tantalizing on their face, but come with a serious problem: they wouldn't fit alongside Paolo Banchero.
Put Banchero's struggles next to his lack of shooting make for a difficult fit with most other star players and you come to a seemingly unthinkable option: the Magic could trade Paolo Banchero. The idea of using Banchero as the primary return for Antetokounmpo makes some sense for both sides, as the Magic get their superstar and the Bucks get a young star to build around.
The problem is that the league's rulebook makes such a deal impossible.
The Magic couldn't trade Paolo Banchero if they wanted to
The NBA's Collective Bargaining Agreement lays out all of the rules for the league's 30 teams: how players contracts work, how teams are allowed to trade with one another, how the salary cap and tax aprons equip and restrict teams in signing players. The Magic and every team in the league has to follow its guidelines when building and improving their teams.
The CBA contains an interesting wrinkle called the poison pill restriction that applies to players in the year after they sign their rookie scale extensions. During that season, the player is paid at their rookie scale amount before their new, usually more lucrative new extension kicks in the following season.
During that year, if that player is traded to another team, their salary does something strange. It counts at the actual number for the team trading them, but for the incoming team his salary is the average of his current-year salary and the annual salary of his future extension.
Without digging into the specific math, that means for players who sign high-dollar rookie extensions, of whom Paolo Banchero is one, making a legal trade is extremely difficult. Banchero is making $15 million this season but will average an estimated $48 million over his contract. In any big-time trade, the Magic would have to add outgoing salary to a deal that routes to third and fourth teams - given trade restrictions and tax realities, that is functionally impossible.
Which brings us around to the crux of the problem. The Orlando Magic have to be looking at Paolo Banchero frustrated at his lack of development and his glaring weaknesses as a No. 1 star. Will he break through and take the next step? Or will he always be limited in massive ways that limit the Magic's ceiling as a team?
The organization might be ready to answer that question now, but they can't do anything to change the situation until after the season. The poison pill restriction makes a Banchero trade impossible during the season. That opens up a window for Banchero to prove himself down the stretch and in the playoffs.
If he can't? The Magic may be ready to move on this summer. The unthinkable might become reality when the impossible becomes possible. And Paolo Banchero might be wearing a new jersey next season.