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- Season Series: Magic 125, Heat 121 in Orlando on Oct. 22; Magic 106, Heat 105 in Orlando on Dec. 5; Tonight in Orlando (NBA Cup Quarterfinal); Jan. 28 in Miami; March 14 in Miami
Orlando Magic vs. Miami Heat: Stats and 3 Keys to Watch
Miami | Orlando | |
|---|---|---|
105.4 | Pace | 101.3 |
115.4 | Off. Rtg. | 115.7 |
111.8 | Def. Rtg. | 111.8 |
55.0 | eFG% | 53.3 |
27.5 | O.Reb.% | 33.0 |
13.5 | TO% | 14.2 |
27.9 | FTR | 33.6 |
1. Paolo's Return
The Orlando Magic are back to trying to figure themselves out again after Franz Wagner's injury. A high ankle sprain will still see Wagner miss a significant time -- most likely at least a month -- even if he is not out of the lineup for long. The Magic have to reconfigure themselves.
And they have to do it with Paolo Banchero starting from a stop.
He has played just two games since returning from his own three-week absence with a strained left groin. He has done so on a minute restriction -- 20:12 in Friday's win over the Miami Heat and 24:28 in the loss to the New York Knicks on Sunday.
Banchero is not up to full speed yet. He scored nine and 16 points in this first two games but shot only 7 for 19 (36.8 percent). He has taken only eight free throw attempts in those two games -- he averaged about nine before his injury.
The problem now is the Magic do not have the luxury of letting Banchero ease into action. He needs to dominate and be a big factor in creating gravity and warping defenses. He is still doing that.
Banchero will need to up his aggression. And the question is how ready he is to do that in a game with this much importance.
2. Make-or-Miss League
It is a cop out at times to say simply this is a make-or-miss league in describing how teams win or lose. But, especially in single-elimination games, it comes down to making or missing shots.
The Orlando Magic did a lot of things well in their loss to the New York Knicks, but being unable to hit timely threes -- shooting 12 for 42 (28.6 percent) was the decisive stat in the end.
The Orlando Magic are going to need to hit some big shots and some big threes to beat the Miami Heat on Tuesday. And that is something they are not doing right now.
The Magic have fallen to 27th in the league, shooting 34.7 percent from three. The team is going through a cold streak right now. Orlando has made only 28.3 percent of their threes in the last five games.
The Magic are resembling their formula from last season a lot, where they grind teams down on defense and hope to make enough shots to stay in front.
That is a formula that can work. But Orlando needs to make shots to win big games like this one.
3. Second Chances
The Orlando Magic offense is obviously much better despite the continued struggles from deep.
There are a few reasons for it: Their transition game is significantly improved from last year. The Magic are turning the ball over a lot less -- the team was 20th in turnover rate last year at 14.7 percent and have clocked in at ninth at 14.2 percent this year.
The other big reason is how much the Magic are dominating the offensive glass.
Orlando is eighth in the league with a 33.0 percent offensive rebound rate (meaning the team retains possession on one of every three misses, essentially) and third with 17.5 second-chance points per game.
The Miami Heat, despite their size with Bam Adebayo and Kel'el Ware, give up 17.6 second-chance points per game, the third-most in the league.
If Orlando wins this game, it will take another major effort on the glass to do so.
Orlando Magic vs. Miami Heat: Injury Report & Projected Lineups
Miami Heat Injury Report
- Tyler Herro - PROBABLE (Right Big Toe Contusion)
- Davion Mitchell - PROBABLE (Right Groin Tightness)
- Pelle Larsson - PROBABLE (Right Hip Flexor Tightness)
- Terry Rozier - OUT (Not With Team)
- Dru Smith - QUESTIONABLE (Left Hip Contusion)
- Vladislav Goldin - QUESTIONABLE (G-League Two-Way)
Orlando Magic Injury Report
- Franz Wagner - OUT (Left High Ankle Sprain)
- Moe Wagner - OUT (Left Knee Injury Recovery)
- Orlando Robinson - AVAILABLE (G-League Two-Way)
- Jamal Cain - AVAILABLE (G-League Two-Way)
- Colin Castleton - OUT (G-League Two-Way)
Projected Starting Lineups
Miami | Orlando | |
|---|---|---|
Davion Mitchell | PG | Jalen Suggs |
Tyler Herro | SG | Desmond Bane |
Norman Powell | SF | Tristan da Silva |
Andrew Wiggins | PF | Paolo Banchero |
Bam Adebayo | C | Wendell Carter |
Orlando Magic vs. Miami Heat: Prediction
Our Record: 15-9/13-11 ATS
The Orlando Magic and Miami Heat are not capable of playing any blowout games.
Their first two games were decided by five total points. And there is no reason, despite the changes on both sides in this game, this should not be another nip-and-tuck game decided by the smallest of margins.
The Magic and Heat both have strong defenses that are playing stronger. They are settling into their seasons as their offense goes through waves.
This game could very well be determined by a Norman Powell three-point binge, a rash of turnovers by either team (Miami had seven in the third quarter to let Orlando take control on Friday) or grabbing offensive rebounds and getting those extra possessions. It will come down to who controls the tempo the longest and who makes key shots in key moments.
The Heat have the advantage in that category simply because Paolo Banchero is still working his way back from injury. The Magic should be able to keep up, but they still need their main engine working at full capacity. He is not there yet.
If this game were played with Franz Wagner, the Magic would easily be the favorite. If this game were played a week later, Banchero would likely be ready to carry that heavy load in a big game.
Today, we do not know if Banchero is ready to carry that load as long as the team needs him.