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- Season Series: Tonight in Orlando; Feb. 6 in Denver
Denver Nuggets vs. Orlando Magic: Stats and 3 Keys to Watch
Denver | Orlando | |
|---|---|---|
101.3 | Pace | 96.8 |
117.7 | Off. Rtg. | 107.8 |
113.3 | Def. Rtg. | 107.5 |
56.7 | eFG% | 50.8 |
30.3 | O.Reb.% | 30.5 |
13.9 | TO% | 15.5 |
26.7 | FTR | 26.9 |
3. Paolo's return at one week
When Paolo Banchero returned, the hope was he would give the team an immediate offensive lift. His presence alone and the gravity he created would change the geometry on the court, giving the Orlando Magic more open shots and hopefully solving some of their shooting woes.
Banchero had a big burst scoring 34 points in his opener and seemingly playing on pure adrenaline—and 5-for-8 shooting from three. He has settled into a fairly inefficient 20-point scorer.
Banchero is averaging 24.3 points per game, shooting 46.4 percent from the floor and 42.1 percent from three. In four games since his return, he has averaged 4.5 turnovers per game. It is clear he is still feeling his way back and processing his reads at a below-optimal rate. The only way for him to get better is to keep playing through mistakes.
His overall effect on the offense has been uncertain. The Magic have just a 99.6 offensive rating with Banchero on the floor in the last four games—a terrible rating and 3.8 points per 100 possessions worse than the team's 103.4 average over the previous four games.
Banchero has not had a lot to work with and he is clearly not at full strength. But the Magic are struggling on offense and Banchero has not been a cure-all.
2. Incredible Jokic
Nikola Jokic has won back-to-back MVPs and his excellence is just expected.
Somehow Jokic keeps raising the bar and keeps getting better. And with the Orlando Magic short-handed at center it could be another long day for the Magic's struggling defense.
Jokic is averaging a career-high 30.4 points per game to go with 13.1 rebounds and 9.9 assists per game. He would need 15 assists Sunday to get to 10.0 assists per game and officially average triple-double.
Jokic still does everything for the Nuggets—they have a +12.1 net rating with a 124.0 offensive rating when he is on the floor and a -10.7 net rating with a woeful 103.3 offensive rating with Jokic off the floor. But Denver has started to find their groove again. The Nuggets are 9-3 in their last 12 games.
Health goes a long way. But Jokic remains one of the most unstoppable forces in the league.
1. Fall to Seventh
Orlando Magic fans are not going to like what they see when they look at the standings. The Magic matched last year's 23-20 record and like last year, their January swoon has led them to tumble down the standings. They sit in seventh in the Eastern Conference after the Atlanta Hawks upset the Boston Celtics in overtime on Saturday.
That is no sign for panic. The Magic were eighth at this point in the season last year with an easy patch in the schedule supposedly ahead -- Positive Residual has the Magic with the third-easiest schedule remaining in the league.
Orlando is not out of the race either.
The Orlando Magic are even with the Atlanta Hawks for sixth, having played two more games than the Hawks. They are one game back of the Indiana Pacers as the Pacers head to Paris for a pair of games against the San Antonio Spurs (two virtual road games). They trail the Milwaukee Bucks by 1.5 games for fourth.
The Orlando Magic lead the Detroit Pistons by 1.5 games for eighth.
There is plenty of time and plenty of space for the Magic to make up that ground. This free fall feels injury-induced. And a healthy Magic team should be able to stack up wins.
Until then, they have to steal wins where they can. They have to believe they have enough and play better to get there. Orlando built a cushion to take this fall, but now that cushion appears to be gone.
Denver Nuggets vs. Orlando Magic: Injury Report & Projected Lineups
Denver Nuggets Injury Report
- Nikola Jokic - PROBABLE (Right Elbow Sprain)
- Aaron Gordon - PROBABLE (Right Calf Injury Management)
- Vlatko Cancar - OUT (Left Knee Surgery Rehabilitation)
- DaRon Holmes - OUT (Right Achilles Tendon Repair)
- Trey Alexander - OUT (G-League Two-Way)
- Spencer Jones - OUT (G-League Two-Way)
Orlando Magic Injury Report
- Franz Wagner - OUT (Return to Competition Reconditioning)
- Jalen Suggs - OUT (Low Back Strain)
- Goga Bitadze - OUT (Concussion Protocol)
- Moe Wagner - OUT (Torn Left ACL)
- Gary Harris - OUT (Left Hamstring Strain)
- Jett Howard - QUESTIONABLE (Left Ankle Sprain)
- Mac McClung - OUT (G-League Two-Way)
Projected Starters
Denver | Orlando | |
|---|---|---|
Jamal Murray | PG | Cole Anthony |
Christian Braun | SG | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope |
Michael Porter | SF | Tristan da Silva |
Aaron Gordon | PF | Paolo Banchero |
Nikola Jokic | C | Wendell Carter |
Denver Nuggets vs. Orlando Magic: Prediction
Our Record: 27-16/20-23 ATS
The Orlando Magic need a chance to breathe right now. They need an injection of confidence. You can feel the frustration and the desperation in how they play and how quickly they lose their plot. They need a moment to refocus.
Returning to the Kia Center, where the Magic play significantly better and have a strong home record, will help matters. They should play better and should play with more rhythm.
But the Magic are trying to find their defense again. They are trying to re-cement their identity. And they do not have a lot in reserve. The Magic's depth has become an issue with all the injuries.
As the Orlando Magic proved in beating the Philadelphia 76ers, they can still compete and beat teams below them in the standings. The prospect of playing the Toronto Raptors and Portland Trail Blazers this week before a potential return for Franz Wagner on Saturday against the Detroit Pistons could give them the needed relief.
The Denver Nuggets are not that relief. They are back to playing at a championship level and Nikola Jokic demands a defense's full attention. Orlando's defense is not playing at its elite level right now.
While everyone should expect a strong response from the Magic after their two losses as they return home, it is tough to see this team matching up with the Nuggets without some superhuman efforts.