Before the season began, the Orlando Magic had one clear goal they were going to judge themselves on.
Last year, the Magic were the surprise team in the league with the 5-seed and 46 wins. They surprised observers even more pushing the Cleveland Cavaliers to seven games. They matured a lot and entered the season with tons of confidence.
They knew that to improve on their place in the conference they needed to gain homecourt advantage and be a top-four seed. After all, they won all three of their home games in that seven-game series and had a 29-12 record at the Kia Center last season.
Defending home court has been one of the rallying cries for the team this season -- their 14-7 record at the midpoint of their regular season and home schedule is the fourth-best record in the league. The Magic still have their eyes squarely on winning homecourt advantage.
As the Magic pass the midpoint of the season, they are in a position to achieve that goal despite all the injuries they have faced.
There is more work to do in the season's second half. And the standings are tighter than they look.
The tight race for fourth
The Orlando Magic are currently fourth in the Eastern Conference with a 23-18 record, but hold a half-game lead over the surging Indiana Pacers (22-18) and a one-game lead over the Milwaukee Bucks (20-17). They also lead the Miami Heat (20-18) and the Detroit Pistons (21-19), who are currently seventh and eighth in the Eastern Conference, by a game and a half.
The Magic have put themselves in a position to achieve this goal. But they are not out of the woods yet. Not by a long shot.
Everyone will catch up and play 82 games by the end of the season. But right now the Magic have played more games than anyone.
That is either an advantage because they have fewer losses than those teams and they have more chances to lose games with a tougher schedule ahead. Or it could be a disadvantage because they have lost opportunities to win that other teams will gain.
This standings table, with records entering Monday’s games, gives some idea of where the Magic actually stand:
Record through 37 games | Unrealized Record | |
---|---|---|
4. ORL | 21-16 | 2-2 |
6. MIL | 20-17 | 0-0 |
7. MIA | 20-17 | 0-0 |
5. IND | 19-18 | 3-0 |
8. DET | 19-18 | 1-1 |
9. ATL | 19-18 | 0-1 |
The Magic are the leaders for the 4-seed at 37 games, the fewest games played by the teams competing for homecourt advantage. But they are still largely treading water and leaving the door open to get passed by the time they all reach 41 games.
The streaking Pacers have re-entered the chat with that opportunity. The Magic hold a 2-1 series lead in that season series with the final matchup set for the penultimate game this season.
The Bucks have staked a claim to the 4-seed too. With four fewer games, they have four more chances to get wins and make up the one-win difference between them and the Magic. That only makes Wednesday's game in Milwaukee more important as the Magic trail the Bucks 2-0 in the season series.
Already, it feels like games will have some added importance.
"I wouldn't say they mean more but I would say we have to be ready to give all-out effort," Banchero said after Sunday's game. "Any time you are on the road, it's going to be a challenge no matter where you are at in the NBA. Milwaukee is a tough place to play, they're a good team. They're going to be locked in. When you go on the road playing good teams, you just have to have focus."
The Miami Heat have even jumped into the conversation despite their internal turmoil to enter the conversation. Orlando holds a 2-1 season series lead with a Jan. 27 game in Miami set to determine who wins the season series.
Everyone knew the standings race would be tight. They are not likely to widen any time soon—the Magic leading the weak Southeast Division gives them the trump card in any three-way tiebreakers should they hold off the Heat and Hawks.
The Magic have a narrow lead but they will need another push.
The Magic's schedule advantage
Despite what looks like some difficult standings math right now, the Orlando Magic are and should be confident they will have a stronger second half of the season. That was the case last year too as they clinched the 5-seed and their first playoff berth in four seasons.
And it goes beyond just getting healthier.
According to the schedule analytics site Positive Residual, the Magic have the third-easiest schedule remaining taking into account opponent win percentage and potential rest advantages. The Pacers though have the second-easiest. The race will indeed tighten.
But the Bucks have the 12th hardest, the Pistons the 15th hardest, the Hawks the 19th hardest and the Heat the 20th hardest.
Orlando has some advantages the rest of the season, but the team is not in a position to relax.
The 4-seed was never going to be clinched in the first half of the season, but the Magic do not have the cushion it looked like they might at least before Franz Wagner's injury.
But the team is confident in what they have built.
The trials through the first half of the season will help the team get better and cement an identity that will help them stack up wins.
"I think our defensive identity is even more ingrained right now than it was last year because we've had to rely so much on it," Jonathan Isaac said after Sunday's win. "I just think it's the perfect setup. With P[aolo Banchero] coming back, we'll get Franz [Wagner] back soon and J-Suggs [Jalen Suggs] back soon. To have that identity and to have that understanding as you go down the bench that every guy is believing that I can affect it in a positive way. Sometimes you don't get that when everybody is healthy and guys aren't touching the floor and getting minutes."
Getting Banchero back has lifted the team's spirits and the team can look forward to the returns of Suggs and Wagner soon. The Magic have maintained one of the best defensive teams in the league despite the constant shuffling in the lineup.
Orlando has gone through a bit of a losing turn like the team did at this point last year—the team lost seven of 10 games heading into the season's midpoint just as this year's team has lost six of its last 10 and 11 of its last 19 games. The Magic have not won consecutive games since the wins over the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics before Christmas.
There is still a lot of time to make a push up the standings, especially as they get healthier. And they will find a way to build up some momentum.
The outlook looks good for this team to accomplish its preseason goal. But nothing is promised.