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Orlando Magic at Denver Nuggets: Stats and 3 Keys to Watch
Orlando | Denver | |
|---|---|---|
101.5 | Pace | 100.2 |
115.7 | Off. Rtg. | 124.4 |
112.1 | Def. Rtg. | 115.1 |
53.5 | eFG% | 59.4 |
32.7 | O.Reb.% | 30.8 |
14.2 | TO% | 13.2 |
32.7 | FTR | 29.7 |
1. Progressing Paolo Banchero
There is still a fair amount of hand-wringing about the progress of Paolo Banchero and his overall impact on winning for the Orlando Magic. It was one of the big talking points among national media with the Magic in Las Vegas for the NBA Cup.
It is easy to say Banchero is still working his way back into shape after missing three weeks with a strained groin. He has progressively improved in each of his games -- going from nine points in 20 minutes in his return game against the Miami Heat, to 16 points in 24 minutes against the New York Knicks, to 18 points in 32 minutes in the NBA Cup quarterfinal against the Heat, to 25 points in 35 minutes in the semifinal loss to the Knicks.
It has been a bit rough with his shooting. And the Magic have a negative plus/minus in three of Banchero's four games since he returned (the one where Franz Wagner played the entire game was his lone positive plus/minus).
It is hard to hold this completely against Banchero. He is still working himself into shape and has taken plenty of positive steps. But the Magic still need him to put all the pieces together.
If they are going to thrive without both Jalen Suggs and Franz Wagner, they need Paolo Banchero to be a stronger anchor in the lineup.
2. With and without Jokic
The rap on the Denver Nuggets for a long time was how they would dominate the minutes when Nikola Jokic is on the floor and be absolutely abysmal when he was off the floor. Denver has been working to solve this problem and figure out how to function and give Jokic a breather.
This year the Nuggets might have found it.
Denver is still very good with Jokic on the floor. The Nuggets post a +12.9 net rating with Jokic on the floor (127.8 offensive rating and 114.9 defensive rating). He is a big reason the Nuggets have remained afloat and elite with Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun out.
With Jokic off the floor this season, Denver has a -1.2 net rating (112.3/113.5). That is the only player with a negative off-court net rating. The Nuggets still need Jokic. But last year, it was -9.3 with a 104.1 offensive rating.
Jonas Valanciunas coming off the bench has made that big of a difference. The Nuggets finally have a reliable backup center. And there is no easing off the throttle with Jokic off the floor anymore.
3. To the foul line
One of the big ways the Orlando Magic have boosted their offense this season is by getting to the foul line. The team is second in the league with a 32.7 percent free throw rate (nearly one free throw for every three field goal attempts. The Magic lead the league with 29.0 free throw attempts per game.
That was despite not having Paolo Banchero on the floor for three weeks. The Magic are about constant pressure on the rim and the paint. That is their ticket to success.
But the foul shots have dried up some.
Orlando is averaging only 21.6 free throw attempts per game and a 23.0 percent free throw rate in the last five games. That explains why the offense has cratered to 108.8 points per 100 possessions. All three of those stats are among the bottom 10 in the league during the last five games.
Orlando has needed a healthy dose of free throws to prop up its offense. And that is something the team has been missing as whistles get tighter around the league.
Orlando Magic at Denver Nuggets: Injury Report & Projected Lineups
Orlando Magic Injury Report
- Franz Wagner - OUT (Left High Ankle Sprain)
- Jalen Suggs - OUT (Left Hip Contusion)
- Moe Wagner - OUT (Left Knee Injury Recovery)
- Tristan da Silva - QUESTIONABLE (Right Shoulder Contusion)
- Orlando Robinson - OUT (G-League Two-Way)
- Jamal Cain - OUT (G-League Two-Way)
- Colin Castleton - OUT (G-League Two-Way)
Denver Nuggets Injury Report
- Aaron Gordon - OUT (Right Hamstring Strain)
- Christian Braun - OUT (Left Ankle Sprain)
- Peyton Watson - QUESTIONABLE (Right Trunk Contusion)
- Tim Hardaway Jr. - QUESTIONABLE (Illness)
- DaRon Holmes - OUT (G-League On Assignment)
- Tamar Bates - OUT (G-League Two-Way)
- Curtis Jones - OUT (G-League Two-Way)
Projected Starting Lineups
Orlando | Denver | |
|---|---|---|
Anthony Black | PG | Jamal Murray |
Desmond Bane | SG | Peyton Watson |
Tristan da Silva | SF | Spencer Jones |
Paolo Banchero | PF | Cameron Johnson |
Wendell Carter | C | Nikola Jokic |
Orlando Magic at Denver Nuggets: Prediction
Our Record: 15-11/13-13 ATS
The Denver Nuggets are clearly not at full strength without Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun even though they are still racking up wins. The Denver Nuggets should be like the Orlando Magic in this way. They are feasting on a lot of bad teams to prop themselves up. They needed superhuman games from Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray to defeat the Houston Rockets on Monday.
But they still have Jokic and Murray. That is enough to get them by. And should be enough against a Magic team that is still figuring themselves out in the wake of injuries.
For Orlando to win Thursday night, the team will need to see Paolo Banchero re-establish himself as an unquestioned star. And there is certainly a lot more questioning of that status even as he works his way back from injury.
He is trying to fit in with the roster especially with how well they played offensively in his absence. That is admirable and something he must continue doing. But the Magic need Banchero to assert himself.
That alone will open up open shots for Desmond Bane, Anthony Black and Tristan da Silva. They need Banchero to be a vortex sucking in defenses into the event horizon.
That part will come. The Magic have to hope sooner than later.
If Orlando's defense is sharper after one of its worst games on Saturday, the team will be competitive. The Magic are too talented to get blown out of any game save for just a complete collapse or Jamahl Mosley trying out an absolutely abysmal lineup -- certainly a possibility with all the shifting in the rotation.
But winning at Denver is still a tall task in the Magic's current state.