The Orlando Magic had a simple formula for this season.
Lean on their devastatingly connected and strong defense to bottle teams up, force turnovers and generate pace. The team would then lean on its two young star players to create enough gravity to create space for open shooters or force their way to the basket.
It was not meant to be a fully formed offense this year. The Magic hoped internal improvement from their bevvy of young players—including the budding stars in Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner—would support the defense enough to take a leap toward contention.
It is safe to say, the Magic's offense has not produced on those ideals. It has regressed in a major way.
Entering Thursday's game against the Washington Wizards, the Orlando Magic are 27th in the league with a 108.5 offensive rating and 30th in shooting at 31.4 percent from three. The Magic's mini offensive surge in the previous 15 games saw them climb to 113.5 points per 100 possessions (20th in the league) and 35.0 percent shooting from three (23rd).
Orlando's offseason will almost certainly be centered on trying to improve this anemic offense.
Whether that means chasing more shooting—the team did that this offseason and ended up with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope's worst shooting season since the early part of his career (but he is shooting well enough to climb to 34 percent for the season)—or seeking more playmaking or help at center.
The Magic's offense feels like it needs a complete overhaul. Their struggles are not just about the injuries.
The national world is starting to notice.
On his debut at The Ringer on The Bill Simmons Podcast, Zach Lowe took an aside from discussing his pick for coach on the hottest seat entering the playoffs to ask: What is going on in Orlando with this team's offense?
"We are long past the point where the Orlando Magic's offense—despite [Jalen] Suggs being out, despite [Cole] Anthony being out, despite Moe Wagner being out and all of that—it just should not be this bad," Lowe said on the podcast released Tuesday. "It is so bad and so unwatchable and so uncreative that at some point somebody in what remains of the basketball media in Orlando has to gently ask the question: 'What's the idea of this offense?'"
Strays at the media aside—I have written plenty about the Magic's frustrating offense and this site is filled with posts trying to break down the offense's deficiencies—this is the central story for the Magic's season. And the thing keeping them from the contending class in the Eastern Conference.
Injuries have been a huge story for the Magic, taking out all four of their top scorers for more than a month at various points in the season. Despite all of that, the team is still in the postseason. The team can easily blame injuries for the difference between competing for homecourt advantage and being in the Play-In.
That does not mean the Magic can ignore these offensive issues. Something was clearly amiss this season.
Signs of life?
That does not mean there are at least a few signs of life worth considering.
There is no place you have to look further than the 3-point shooting. That has been such a huge determining factor in games this season.
But the Orlando Magic entered the season hoping to increase its attempts and take more threes after taking the second-fewest 3-pointers per game last year. Orlando is indeed 23rd in the league in 3-point attempts per game (something that has decreased as the season has progressed).
More importantly, the Magic are trying to get higher-quality threes.
According to NBA.com's tracking stats, the Magic are 17th in the league with 18.9 "wide-open" 3-point attempts per game (where the closest defender is six or more feet away) this season. They shoot a league-worst 34.1 percent on these attempts. Last year, they were 15th in the league with 18.2 of these attempts per game, making 37.8 percent.
Before Jalen Suggs' injury, the Magic were 10th with 20.1 of these "wide-open" 3-point attempts per game.
Suggs is a fascinating what-if for the season by himself. In the first five games of the season (before Paolo Banchero's injury), Jalen Suggs shot 53.1 percent on 6.4 catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts per game. No player was hurt more by the role change than Suggs, who ended the season shooting 34.5 percent on 4.2 attempts per game.
Additionally, the Magic are 14th in the league with 9.8 corner threes per game, making 35.2 percent of these shots (third-worst in the league). Last year, they were 21st in the league with 8.5 attempts per game, but made 36.7 percent of those shots.
These are slight improvements—and ones that looked better earlier in the year when the team still had a modicum of health—but still some signs the Magic can generate more offense.
Things have become so much more difficult with teams betting the Magic will miss shots and packing the paint. Unless the Magic are making shots—and they are 19-7 when they shoot even 35 percent or better from three—it is hard for them to operate.
Get them moving
The Orlando Magic's slow pace only makes the offense even more of an eyesore to watch.
The Magic are 28th in the league with an average of 16.1 seconds to shoot after made baskets, according to data from Inpredictable. The Magic are second in the league with 9.7 field goal attempts per game in the last four seconds of the shot clock.
They are even 23rd in that category after turnovers, a baffling revelation of how poor they are in transition, even with the amount of turnovers they create.
The slow-moving offense, even with the desire to have Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner on the ball, is a sure sign of how desperately the team needs a more confident organizer. Even inserting Cory Joseph into the starting lineup has been a boost—the team has a 119.2 offensive rating with him on the court since March 1.
There are a lot of things to consider and a lot of moving pieces to work with. But the Magic's offense has clear needs that everyone can see need to be addressed. A personnel overhaul and some tactical changes feel like they are coming.
Tinkering on the way
Zach Lowe was sure to be "very clear" for everyone that coach Jamahl Mosley's seat is ice cold. He is not going anywhere despite the frustrations this season. There is certainly no indication that the Orlando Magic are thinking about making a move to the coaching staff or front office.
In the long scheme of things, the Magic have two All-Star-level—potentially All-NBA-level—players to build around and still have one of the most elite defenses in the league. It does not take much scoring for the Magic to be competitive and have a chance.
But the Magic have indeed been banging their head against the wall offensively. They are fortunate that Paolo Banchero is strong enough to put dents in that wall and Franz Wagner is deft enough to get around that wall.
While the Magic fell well short of their goals, the offensive struggles this year made it clear they are far away from the contending class.
Lowe wondered on The Bill Simmons Podcast when we can start "treating the Magic like a real team" and not merely a feel-good story. The Magic certainly used up much of that capital this year failing to meaningfully improve the team with the cap room they had last summer.
This upcoming offseason is one where the Magic must improve their offense.