NBA commissioner Adam Silver has cooled off some of the talk on expansion in the NBA.
During his press conference before the NBA Finals, he seemed to be trying to slow down the expansion discussion with several questions about the potential for the league to add new teams. There is still work to do before the league expands.
But everyone senses it is coming. It is a matter of when not if anymore.
Even though expansion is not likely for another few years, it is always a good exercise to prepare for the expansion draft. It has a way of clarifying which players are important to a team and which players are on salaries that a team does not feel uncomfortable exposing to the expansion draft.
The expansion draft -- since there has not been an expansion draft since 2003 when the Charlotte Hornets (nee Bobcats) entered the league -- is how the league populates new teams that enter the league.
Typically, a team is allowed to protect up to eight players, blocking them from selection in the expansion draft. The expanding team also has previously entered the league with a limited salary cap. That adds some extra intrigue because teams could feel more comfortable leaving higher-salaried players exposed, knowing that the expansion team could not pick them up.
It should be noted that while a protected expansion list can read like a "Who are the eight most important players on a team?" list, that is not exactly what it is.
That is all part of the strategy of an expansion draft. Bryan Toporek of Fansided went through a mock expansion draft exercise to show how difficult it might be to build a team -- he selected Goga Bitadze from the Magic's unprotected list.
I wanted to view it from the other side. How would the 2026 Magic approach the expansion draft with their roster?
Absolutely protected
1. Paolo Banchero
It goes without saying Paolo Banchero is completely untouchable. His max contract might make him untouchable for an expansion team to take on. But Banchero is the central figure on this Magic roster. Everything they build sprouts off of him. Role players can be replaced, stars cannot.
2. Franz Wagner
The same goes for Franz Wagner. He continues to expand and grow his game. Provided the shooting becomes more reliable, he seems like a perfect complement to Paolo Banchero. The Orlando Magic have a unique tandem -- two playmaking 6-foot-10 forwards. That has the Magic dreaming of winning a championship sooner than later. Wagner is as untouchable as they come.
3. Desmond Bane
The Orlando Magic put a lot into acquiring Desmond Bane -- two rotation players and five first-round picks. It was a heavy cost that had a lot of people around the league wondering if it would ultimately be worth it. But everyone agrees it was the kind of all-in move that makes the Magic potential title contenders in the Eastern Conference.
The Bane acquisition is why expectations have climbed through the roof. And until the Magic are forced to make changes because of the second apron, they are committed to this top four.
4. Jalen Suggs
The fourth member of that top four is Jalen Suggs. The "head of the snake" on defense, as coach Jamahl Mosley often says, Jalen Suggs is still the heart and soul of this team. He is still a big part of the engine driving the team's success and its defense.
The hope is that Suggs will come back from his knee injury and still be able to hit 3-pointers at the rate he hit them before his injury when he was on the floor with Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner.
There are already some questions about Suggs' long-term viability with the team because of their cap situation. Suggs still has a lot to prove.
Probably Protected
5. Anthony Black
Anthony Black will face his share of questions this season too.
After two decent seasons to open his career, the Orlando Magic want to see him be more consistent. They want to see him put all the pieces together and provide a more consistent offensive output in addition to his solid defense. They want to see the young player mature.
Black is in the crosshairs this season with his extension due up next summer. It is hard to imagine the Magic are ready to commit to a contract with him right now. This season is big in determining his ultimate financial value.
Let alone what he is worth to the team.
For now, it appears one of the reasons the Magic held themselves out of the trade deadline and paid such a big price for Desmond Bane was because they were unwilling to part with Anthony Black quite yet. There is no reason think they have moved off that position entering the season.
On the Fence
6. Goga Bitadze
The Orlando Magic will have to make some financial considerations soon, and especially when it comes to an expansion draft. Holding onto cheap players at this juncture is vital.
That brings the Magic to the crossroads they are at with Goga Bitadze. His contract is affordable -- nearly $16 million over the next two seasons -- but the Magic also have little space in their rotation for him. That should make Bitadze valuable at the trade deadline.
If his 3-point shooting from EuroBasket is an indication of where he is going, then the Magic might have to reconsider their priorities at center.
If it came to it in an expansion draft, Bitadze is the kind of player an expansion team would surely want -- a cheap, borderline starter that has room to grow. That is why the Magic would prioritize protecting him over more established players. He still has a role to play for the Magic on that front.
7. Jase Richardson
It is always a bad idea to give up on rookies. Young players are cheap and can provide a huge lift to whichever team they are on. Especially contending teams.
Considering the Orlando Magic do not have many future draft picks to play with after trading for Desmond Bane, they cannot afford to miss on rookies. That would lead them to try to keep Jase Richardson in this situation.
He fills a clear need as a scoring guard and they are optimistic about his development.
Richardson may not play a lot his rookie year. But he should be expected to be a solid contributor in his second season.
8. Noah Penda
Similarly, Noah Penda is a prospect the Orlando Magic took a swing on. They dealt several second-round picks to move up and get him. He fits the bill for everything the Magic are looking for.
There are still a lot of things to develop with Penda. He has playmaking potential at his size and he needs to get more solid on defense. But all the pieces are there for him to put together.
The Magic should not be in the business of exposing that kind of potential to the market when it will be so difficult to replenish it during the next several seasons.
Wendell Carter
That is not meant to leave Wendell Carter out in the cold. Carter is still a very serviceable big who is perfect within the Orlando Magic's defensive scheme. The Magic need to see him bounce back on offense and provide a little more consistency on that end. But that is less necessary with the offensive additions to the team.
For most teams, paying an annual average value of $19.6 million (when Carter's extension kicks in for the 2027 season) for a starting center would be a steal. But the Magic have to think a little bit about their finances. And Carter might be a place to cut costs if Bitadze remains effective.
Jonathan Isaac
Jonathan Isaac is still a bit of an enigma.
No one doubts his defensive prowess. Even last year when he was a step slow, he was still an overwhelmingly positive defender. He just was not elite and dominant. Everyone could feel he was a bit off. And his offense was non-existent.
The Magic know it is tough to give up on Isaac because he has that elite skill and potential. No team should give that away. And Isaac now has two healthy seasons under his belt.
But the Magic have tough decisions coming up. Can Orlando bank on Isaac and pay Isaac for such limited time? This is a big season for Isaac to establish himself further. Otherwise, the team has to consider moving on in some capacity.
Out of room to Protect
Tristan da Silva
Whether the Orlando Magic move on from someone like Jonathan Isaac comes down to how quickly Tristan da Silva develops. Da Silva does not do everything that Isaac can do. Right now, he simply fills in missing gaps for the team.
But young players need investment. Especially while they are on their rookie contracts.
Da Silva's uneven rookie year is the only reason why the Magic would not protect him quite yet. It would hurt to lose him (or a player like him) in an expansion situation. But that is also not the end of the world either.
To say the least, da Silva has a lot riding on this season to prove his place and that he can contribute to a winning team like the Magic.
Moe Wagner
The Orlando Magic clearly value Moe Wagner. They moved some money around to ensure they could bring him back and give him the space to keep rehabbing from his torn ACL. There are still options to bring him back for more money as he gets healthier.
But the injury question still hangs over him. He still has to make his way back onto the court. And the Magic have options at center should things not work out.
Completely Unprotected
Tyus Jones
This is not a statement against Tyus Jones. Orlando Magic fans are not talking enough about the impact Jones could have on this team. He is a steady hand point guard who will guide the second unit and provide stability when the team needs it.
But nobody is under the impression that this is more than a one-year marriage. Protections in the expansion draft are for long-term players that the team wants to keep. The Magic may be swapping out backup point guards for a while.
Jett Howard
It is not too far to call Jett Howard a bust at this point. The Orlando Magic took a swing to take him with the 11th pick, knowing they needed to add shooting desperately. Howard was deferred a year, playing most of his rookie season in the G-League. But he struggled when he got playing time in his second season.
Worse still, Howard struggled from three, shooting 29.6 percent. True, these are small samples with inconsistent playing time. But even a shooter like J.J. Redick, who struggled to come off the bench early in his career, shot well in his playing time.
Howard right now is an empty promise. And it is hard to see him being part of the Orlando Magic for much longer.